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From Monmouth


From a member of the National Foot and Mouth Group


From Cumbria


From Michael


From Gary in Kansas


On the criticism made by Prof Anderson of the Belfast research


From Cornwall

AB TEST RESULTS FOR FMD WHICH DEMONSTRATE VERY LOW NUMBER OF PREMISES WERE ACTUALLY INFECTED

 

 

Source of Data:  Parliamentary Question 2164 & DEFRA  Website

 

 

As of today, 20 February 2003, the total number of a AFFECTED PREMISES on the DEFRA website now stands at  10,472

 

This is the total number of premises where animals have been slaughtered.

 

 

According to Parliamentary Question and Answer PQ 2164:

 

The total number of premises that were sampled  is    2,372

 

Of those that were sampled only   1,328  returned positive results demonstrating that they were either infected or had been infected and animals now carried antibodies.

 

 

Therefore, although  10,472  farms and premises were slaughtered only  1,328  were definitely confirmed to have had the disease when lab tested.

 

 

We know from the papers and letter of Dr Paul Kitching and Dr Alex Donaldson in the Vet Record of the 19 May 2001 that if samples were sent to Pirbright for testing, from  animals that were either exhibiting clinical signs or had been exposed to the disease, the tests would provide positive results.

 

(Note:  If DEFRA now has further epidemiological data which does not support the above it would be timely for such information to be published).

 

Furthermore,  the level of incidence of disease that was confirmed in the lab, county by county, shows that some counties had hardly any infection confirmed, yet massive numbers of farms and premises were slaughtered.

 

For  example, Gloucestershire, Hereford & Worcestershire, Shropshire, Wigtownshire.    At Great Orton burial pit – where approximately ½ a million animals were slaughtered, only 1 farm was definitely confirmed to have antibody positive sheep.

 

SEE FOLLOWING INFORMATION

 

 

 

INFECTED PREMISES CONFIRMED BY LAB TESTS - RATIO TO NUMBER OF FARMS CULLED -  IN GLOUCESTERSHIRE, HEREFORD/WORCESTERSHIRE & SHROPSHIRE, WALES, AND WIGTOWNSHIRE

 

Source of data:  Answer to Parliamentary Question   2164

 

 

County             No of IPs*     No tested No +ve     Total Farms       Ratio

                                                                                                Culled

 

Glos                       72                         46                        13                    346               1:26

 

Here/Worc            66                   49                   15                    394               1:26

 

Shrops                  12                     8                     5                    131               1:26

 

 

 

Wales                   115                   102                  60                  806               1:13

 

 

Wigtownshire          15                     13                   2                   218              1:109

 

 

*An IP was a premise declared as infected by DEFRA either on the basis of clinical signs or if testing positive.  It is important to note that the reliance on clinical signs to confirm the presence of the disease, particularly for sheep, was considered unreliable.  The total number of farms slaughtered includes all Infected Premises, Dangerous Contacts, Contiguous Culls and Slaughter on Suspicion cases.

 

Note:

 

We understand that if samples from animals showing clinical signs were submitted for laboratory testing then the lab test results would have provided positive results if the animals were infected with FMD.

 

This view of Dr Paul Kitching and Dr Alex Donaldson of IAH Pirbright – is expressed in the Vet Record of 19 May 2001, p640.  They also write:

 

“We believe that laboratory support for a diagnosis of FMD in sheep, in particular, is essential.”

 

ANGLESEY

 

We understand that there were 13 IPs on Anglesey

 

Of these:                  5 tested +ve

                       

5 tested –ve

 

3 were not tested.

 

Of approx. 244 farms culled as a firebreak, only 7 were tested - all were negative.

 

We also understand that the 1st outbreak was in Gaerwaen abattoir.

 

Apparently there was some delay in the slaughter at the abattoir of a matter of days which allowed the virus to spread, possibly by the movement of vehicles and personnel, or by other vectors and thus infect other premises.  As shown above it appears only 5 became infected and have been confirmed on laboratory testing.

 

We draw your attention to the number of farms culled on the basis of only 5 positive IP’s identified in laboratory test results.

 

The ratio is 244 divided by 5.    This is 1:49.

 

The Anglesey figures were supplied to NFMG and submitted to the Anderson Inquiry.

 

 

GREAT ORTON

 

These figures were supplied by DEFRA Carlisle and submitted to the Cumbria Inquiry by Will Cockbain – NFU County Chairman – NFMG also then submitted them to the Anderson Inquiry. 

 

Will Cockbain – NFU County Chairman – Giving evidence to Cumbria Inquiry

 

“Reference to the 3km cull was also made by county NFU chairman Will Cockbain

of Rakefoot Farm, Keswick, who told the inquiry that chief vet Jim Scudamore

had justified the slaughter by claiming the sheep flock was "heavily

infected", although MAFF had failed to produce any evidence at the time to

support this.

 

According to Mr Cockbain, the results of blood tests carried out at Gt Orton

had only been revealed to him a short time before the inquiry and these had

shown that sheep from 115 farms had been tested. Sheep from only one farm

had tested positive, with one additional "mild positive" and three

"inconclusive". "This shows that Jim Scudamore's initial reason for the 3km

cull was wrong," he said.”

 

Will Cockbain’s data as supplied to NFMG:

 

Great Orton

 

There were sheep from 115 farms tested, 5786 animals in total, between the 7th and

23rd of April 2001.

 

One farm had a positive test on 9 sheep.

 

One farm had what Andrew Hayward (DVM Cumbria) termed "mild" positive with 2 sheep testing positive.

 

Three farms were inconclusive and the rest, 110 farms had negative tests.

 

No farms were culled as a result of finding clinical signs of FMD, I asked if any clinical signs had been found and he said no. To the best of my knowledge 451,000 sheep were slaughtered at Gt Orton.

 

NFMG -  20 February 2003