Table 13: Key parameters affecting the economic attarctiveness of a cattle vaccination strategy

Key Parameters

Circumstances that favour the “IP DC cull only” strategy

Circumstances that favour the “IP DC cull plus 10km cattle vaccination” strategy

Incursion locations

If the cattle and sheep density in the area surrounding the initial incursion is low to moderate then an IP DC cull only strategy is more likely to be sufficient to manage the outbreak at lowest cost

If the cattle and sheep density in the area surrounding the initial incursion is high then cattle vaccination becomes more cost beneficial

Virus characteristics

A low virus infectivity suggests that an IPDC cull only strategy is sufficient, for example where the virus has a short window of infectivity before clinical signs become apparent and/or does not readily form windborne virus plumes

If the virus exhibits high infectivity characteristics then vaccination is more likelyto be cost beneficial, for example where the virus has a long window of infectivity before clinical signs become apparent combined with a tendency to form windborne virus plumes

Key Parameters

Circumstances that favour the “IP DC cull only” strategy

Circumstances that favour the “IP DC cull plus 10km cattle vaccination” strategy

Regionalisation of economic impacts

If disruption to the meat export trade occurs on a national basis, regardless of the actual size and geographical spread of the outbreak, then a strategy based on vaccination causes extra costs due to the increased time to restore disease free status.Consequently the IP DC cull only strategy is more likely to be cost beneficial.

If foreign tourists continuing to travel to the UK but simply avoid the areas of the countryside directly affected by the outbreak then an IP DC cull only strategy is more likely to be cost beneficial.

If animal welfare problems only occur inside restricted areas (not nationally) then an IP DC cull only strategy is more likely to be cost beneficial.

If disruption to the meat export trade is limited to the regions directly affected by the outbreak only then the large cost associated with the extended time to restore disease free status under a vaccination policy can be substantially reduced. Consequently the vaccination policy is more likely to be cost beneficial.

If foreign tourists delay or cancel their visits to the UK as a whole rather than simply avoiding the areas of the countryside directly affected by the outbreak then vaccination is more likely to be cost beneficial because it reduces the duration of the “active” outbreak

If animal welfare problems occur on a national basis (i.e. dependent on the duration of the outbreak rather than its size) then vaccination is more likely to be cost beneficial because it reduces the duration of the “active” outbreak

Vet and cull team resource mobilisation (cull delays)

If the 24h / 48h target times for the culling of IPs and DCs can be achieved, especially in early stages of the outbreak, then an IP DC cull only strategy is more likely to be sufficient to manage the outbreak at lowest cost.

If it is not possible to achieve the 24h / 48h target times for the culling of IPs and DCs, especially in early stages of the outbreak, then a vaccination strategy may help to compensate and is therefore more likely to be cost beneficial

DC tracing effectiveness

If the success rate for tracing truly infected dangerous contracts is no worse than was achieved towards the end of the 2001 outbreak then an IP DC cull only strategy is more likely to be sufficient.

If truly infected dangerous contracts are traced less effectively than was achieved towards the end of the 2001 outbreak then a vaccination strategy may help to compensate and is therefore more likely to be cost beneficial.