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Food Security, Peak Oil & Climate Change: the policy context

Tim Lang

talk to ‘Food Security & Peak Oil’ meeting, All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil, House of Commons, Portcullis House, Thatcher Room, Westminster, March 25 2008

 
 
 

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This talk…. 

 
 
 

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1. What’s the policy context?

 
 
 

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Food and Peak Oil 

 
 
 

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Food and Climate Change 

 
 
 

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Where Tesco sets its Carbon Footprint boundary (2007) 

source: Tesco (2007). Measuring our carbon footprint. Cheshunt: Tesco plc.  http://www.tesco.com/climatechange/carbonFootprint.asp

 
 
 

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Peak Oil & Climate Change are but latest entries to long FS discourse  

 
 
 

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FS policy is complicated by different meanings… 

 
 
 

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2. Why the interest now?

 
 
 

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8 fundamentals loom 

 
 
 
 
 
 

See:

1. T Lang (2008) City Leaders lecture: http://www.city.ac.uk/news/archive/2008/03_march/04032008_1.html

2. T Lang (2007) Rachel Carson lecture: http://www.pan-uk.org/Projects/RCML/index.htm

 

3. Chatham House project: http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/research/global_trends/

 

 
 
 

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3. What is the UK Government position?

 
 
 

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Current food security policy 

 
 
 

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Defra 2006 FS paper 

 
 
 

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FS not important to a ‘modern’ rich economy? 

 
 
 

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The UK Self-Sufficiency Ratio 1956-2005 
source: Defra Fd Sec Dec 2006 fig 6.1 pg 34

 
 
 

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Self-sufficiency ratios for a sample of commodities 1980-2005 Defra (2006) Fig 6-2, p 34

 
 
 

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Source: Defra 2007 Labour force statistics. York Dec 2007 

E+W AGRIC LABOUR FORCE 1996-2007 
NB 1983-1996 decline of total agri labour force was 28%  
(1996= change of data collection methodology)

 
 
 

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Food resilience (to shock)  

    http://www.defra.gov.uk/science/project_data/DocumentLibrary/FT0352/FT0352_4705_FRP.doc

 
 
 

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4. What other policy positions are emerging?

 
 
 

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Emerging competing positions (1) 

 
 
 

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Emerging competing positions (2) 

 
 
 

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Emerging competing positions (3) 

 
 
 

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5. What is the way forward?

 
 
 

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Shift discourse to Food Capacity- reflecting the SD 3 pillars 

 
 
 

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Roadmap for Food Capacity 

 
 
 

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Redefining UK Food Policy Goals 

 
 
 

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UK has a lot of catching up? eg. Fruit

 
 
 

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6. What issues require  
more attention?

 
 
 

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i. What could a post PO food system look like to meet FS? 

 
 
 

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ii. Dietary change? 

Meat & Dairy

 

Fruit & Vegetables

 
 
 

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iii. Price rises almost inevitable? 

 
 
 

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iv. Public engagement 

 
 
 

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v. Government role 

 
 
 

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vi. Supply chain capacity 

 
 
 

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vii. Consumers & civil society