Warmwell.com - Avian Influenza Postings

UPDATE ON AVIAN INFLUENZA IN ANIMALS (TYPE H5) from the OIE (2011)

Daily bulletins from ProMed Mail (new window) Google News Latest (new window) DEFRA avian influenza page

ProMed postings on Avian Influenza archive page

The Poultry Site - news page

The Bernard Matthews outbreak Feb 2007 - warmwell postings from the beginning Round-up of papers on the virology of avian influenza in relation to wild birds - Pro Med August 27 2007

World Health Organization (WHO) website (new window)

Useful Avian Influenza Forum - Dr Martin Williams (new window)

Vaccinating Birds against H5N1 - new information and recent warmwell postings on the subject of vaccination of birds

Reference papers and links

(all open in new windows)

• The Role of the Intensive Poultry Production Industry in the Spread of Avian Influenza CIWF February 2007 pdf file
• Perspective Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds Volume 13, Number 8 August 2007 Thomas P. Weber.
• Ellis TM et al. 'Vaccination of chickens against H5N1 avian influenza in the face of an outbreak interrupts virus transmission'Avian Pathology, 2004, 33(4):405412.
• September 2006 EUROPEAN PUBLIC ASSESSMENT REPORT (EPAR) NOBILIS INFLUENZA H5N2 Pdf ( The European Commission granted a marketing authorisation valid throughout the European Union, for Nobilis Influenza H5N2 to Intervet International BV on 01/09/2006.)
• 'Efficacy of vaccines in chickens against highly pathogenic Hong Kong H5N1 Avian Influenza.'David Swayne, J. Beck, M. Perdue & C. Beard.Avian Disease, 45 (2), April 2001, pp 355-365].(Abstract)
• Protective efficacy in chickens, geese and ducks of an H5N1-inactivated vaccine developed by reverse genetics Guobin Tian a, Suhua Zhangb, Yanbing Li a, Zhigao Buc, Peihong Liu b, Jinping Zhoub, Chengjun Li a,c, Jianzhong Shi a, Kangzhen Yua,1, Hualan Chena,c, Virology 341 (2005) 153  162 (pdf )
• Passive immunotherapy for influenza A H5N1 virus infection with equine hyperimmune globulin F(ab' )2 in mice pdf file. Respiratory Research 2006, 7:43 doi:10.1186/1465-9921-7-43 Jiahai Lu and others:
• "Fowl play: The poultry industry's central role in the bird flu crisis" Report from GRAIN
• "Transmission is promoted in domestic flocks due to the density of birds and the consequent close contact with faecal and other secretions that contain the virus."Avian Influenza: Birdlife Position Statement
  
• BirdLife International's document Surveillance of wild birds - about surveillance, testing and diagnosis
  
• Latest UK 'Generic' Contingency Plan for FMD   Avian Influenza etc
• Suggested policy for Turkey from Dr Ruth Watkins, UK virologist
• Ruth Watkins' paper for the CLA on the virus, vaccines and vaccination
• CHRONOLOGY-Bird flu developments - Source: Reuters

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Latest media news

about avian influenza can be seen here (New window opens)
Also, Reuters Bird Flu Chronology page is updated regularly See www.alertnet.org/db/crisisprofiles/BIRDFLU.htm for latest cases and maps.

Today's warmwell entries - may include H5N1 postings .....The Bernard Matthews outbreak. Still questions unanswered

20/21st February 2011 ~ Swan deaths at Stratford on Avon - lead poisoning or Bird Flu? ‘‘I think we are looking at a virus," says the former Stratford Mayor

Once again, there has been no swift response to the concern that H5N1 may be in the UK. Extract from Stratford's Sunday Mercury
".. bird lovers demanded an urgent investigation... ‘unprecedented' number of fatalities has wiped out around 30 per cent of the population along the River Avon in Stratford-upon-Avon... now only 35 birds left on our stretch of the River Avon. ‘... so sad to see these beautiful, strong, birds dying, especially when you can't see anything wrong with them.'' ... deceased swans they have received have been dead too long for a successful post-mortem..."
Readers may remember Magnus Linklater's 2006 article: Defra is like a dead swan. Discuss in which he asked "Why, then, are we still shuttling dead birds across the country to the single laboratory capable of testing them, when there is a sophisticated and foolproof form of local testing that could diagnose the virus in under six hours?"
As Roger Breeze wrote a few days ago, the tools exist; all we have to do is buy them:
"Two that come to mind are the Tessarae re-sequencing microarray and the IBIS 5000. (Both these assays are performed at biological safety level 2 so there is no need for a high containment diagnostic laboratory ...." (email in full)
But delays in England continue. No lessons learned there, it seems. In Northern Ireland, the deaths of a number of swans have also been investigated - in Hillsborough Forest Park, in Killyleagh and Lurgan. All appear to have been the result of "bacterial infections" See Ulster Star

November 2010 ~ Officials in Hong Kong announced that a woman had contracted bird flu, the first reported case of the condition in seven years.

The 59-year-old woman had recently travelled to mainland China but reported no contact with live poultry or visits to farms. ...Despite efforts to contain the outbreak, the World Health Organization (WHO) now considers the virus to be endemic in birds (meaning that the infection is steadily maintained) in many parts of Indonesia and Vietnam and in some parts of China, Cambodia, and Thailand.

26th February 2009 ~ Bird Flu at Bernard Matthews again

BBC "... DEFRA has carried out tests at Bernard Matthews breeder sites in Ubbeston, near Halesworth, and near Yaxham, close to East Dereham. The birds tested positive for avian influenza but not the highly pathogenic H5 or H7 types. Defra has not advised a cull of the birds but has placed a movement restriction on them."
Warmwell.com pages from 2007 chronicle the H5N1 outbreak at the Bernard Matthews premises in 2007 from its beginning in February two years ago. It will be remembered how in 2007, testing was not complete until 14 days after the Bernard Matthews plant was allowed to be re-opened. Bernard Matthews was close to being prosecuted for alleged breaches in hygiene regulations but - to the astonishment of many, far from facing charges, the company was even granted £589,356.89 in compensation, funded by the taxpayer.
Although it seems as though today's reported case of a notifiable disease may not be as serious as first feared, it is to be deeply regretted that DEFRA has not chosen vaccination as even part of their strategy to combat Bird Flu. As Dr Ruth Watkins asked in an article written many months ago for the CLA,
"... Why not vaccinate free-range poultry and pheasants as well as hold vaccine in reserve to ring vaccinate an outbreak in a domestic flock? ..."

23 February 2009 ~ "the scientists found that three of these monoclonal antibodies neutralised 10 of 16 known influenza "A" viruses, including H5N1"

Reuters reports on the lab-made human antibodies that can disable several types of influenza, including highly-lethal H5N1 bird flu and the "Spanish Flu" strain. A breakthrough on the treating of all kinds of flu looks much more likely. However, the Mail brings us back down to earth with Professor Peter Openshaw, an expert in respiratory disease at Imperial College London, who said, "I don't think it's realistic to imagine making this antibody as a treatment - It would cost about £10,000 a month to protect an adult." All the same, the discovery could lead to vaccines within a few years.

October 10 2008 ~ Grim news from Germany: H5N1 found in a duck farm

Although, according to the German Bauernverband, it is still a suspicion and test results will be announced tomorrow morning, www.monstersandcritics.com reports:
"... Officials were preparing to slaughter the whole flock of ducks at Goerlitz, near the Polish border. Germany's national animal health laboratory on the Baltic island of Riems said the find was 'somewhat surprising' as the infection alert had been reduced to moderate after an outbreak was beaten last December..."
In February, Pro Med moderator MHJ said,
"...the initial concern that the global spread of H5N1 was dependent on and a result of migratory birds has proven to be a false alarm -- now that thousands of such have been sampled over the past few years -- and it is now clear that any H5N1-infected wild birds were infected essentially incidentally.....This is not to say that it cannot go from wild birds to domestic birds, but that is the exception, not the rule. The bad news is that H5N1 seems to be well embedded in the commercial and domestic poultry in various parts of the world and will probably remain so for some time to come.."
The "farm" in Saxony contains more than 1,000 birds, mainly turkeys and geese. Bernard Matthews ('of all people,' some might say after the events of 2007) called on the UK government, in June this year, for an early warning system "for migratory birds that may carry H5N1 avian flu" (See FWi in June) and while one hopes for greater efficiency in surveillance, the myth that wild birds must necessarily be the source of bird flu needs now surely to be discredited.

August 16 2008 ~ "It seems to be unlikely that wild birds have carried the strain to Africa..."

The detection of a new avian influenza virus strain in Africa is raising serious concerns - and it is uncertain how this strain -genetically different from the strains that circulated in Nigeria during earlier outbreaks but similar to strains previously identified in Europe, Asia and the Middle East, has been introduced to Africa. Scott Newman, International Wildlife Coordinator of FAO's Animal Health Service is quoted by www.farminguk.com
"It seems to be unlikely that wild birds have carried the strain to Africa, since the last migration of wild birds from Europe and Central Asia to Africa occurred in September 2007 and this year's southerly migration into Africa has not really started yet, It could well be that there are other channels for virus introduction: international trade, for example, or illegal and unreported movement of poultry. This increases the risk of avian influenza spread to other countries in Western Africa."
Read in full

February 18 2008 ~ "The good news is that the initial concern that the global spread of H5N1 was dependent on and a result of migratory birds has proven to be a false alarm"

ProMed moderator " -- now that thousands of such have been sampled over the past few years -- and it is now clear that any H5N1-infected wild birds were infected essentially incidentally.
There was no global biological conspiracy of that virus in nature, though the events are not without interest within the greater epidemiology of avian influenza viruses. This is not to say that it cannot go from wild birds to domestic birds, but that is the exception, not the rule.
The bad news is that H5N1 seems to be well embedded in the commercial and domestic poultry in various parts of the world and will probably remain so for some time to come. There are a total of 79 postings on this topic. For earlier reports beyond those cited below, see the ProMED-mail archives. - Mod.MHJ"

February 16 2008 ~ Migratory birds are not the main source of bird flu says the World Wildlife Fund

Pakistan Daily Times "Wild migratory birds may suffer from Avian Influenza (commonly known as bird flu), but they are not the main source of the disease’s outbreak in Pakistan, according to a study statement issued by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Lahore chapter on Friday. ..The WWF said the mapping of bird flu outbreaks across the world had shown that they followed poultry trade routes rather than the migratory birds’ flyways. Therefore, after a comprehensive critical review of recent scientific literature, it was concluded that poultry trade, rather than bird migration, was the main mechanism of the global dispersal of the H5N1 virus. The organisation said the illegal trade of caged birds had transported the H5N1 virus the world over. It said, “Bird flu virus is transmitted farm to farm by the movement of live birds, people (especially with contaminated clothes), and contaminated vehicles, equipment, feed, and cages.."

February 16 2008 ~ H5N1 "The killing of healthy poultry is quite unethical for a veterinarian and it contravenes the principle of veterinary medical ethics,"

The ProMed posting on the news that the Orissa Veterinary Association (OVA) have refused on ethical grounds to cull healthy birds within a three mile radius of Orissa-West Bengal border to prevent bird flu in the state (see also below from Feb 4) carries a report from the Indian newspaper, the Statesman extract:
The killing of healthy poultry is quite unethical for a veterinarian and it contravenes the principle of veterinary medical ethics, the association unanimously felt. "All sorts of precautionary measures have been taken since last month and the investigations so far have found not a single bird flu case, there is no need of mass culling of birds", said the general secretary Dr Muktikanta Bhuyan..."
The ProMed moderator comments: " Killing animals along the (vulnerable) border, creating a "cordon sanitaire," is an explainable but controversial disease-prevention measure. It would have been expected from the Orissa Veterinary Association to propose alternative measure(s); such as, vaccination?!"

February 16 2008 ~ H5N1 "Defra does not address the question of how it will react to this spread, nor did it forward any information when asked."

ProMed mail on the subject of a tenth mute swan, put down because of H5N1 - this time on a lake (Radipole Lake) in a nature reserve in Weymouth city that does not have a direct connection with Abootsbury. As the moderator remarks, "The new case apparently passed unnoticed by the public so far (including ProMED-mail)"
The continuing reluctance to vaccinate seems to fly in the face of both animal welfare and good sense. (See H5N1 vaccination page)

February 1 2008 ~ H5N1 Two more wild swans found dead at Abbotsbury have tested positive

AFP "..the total number of swans found to have the disease at the Abbotsbury Swannery, in the Chesil Beach area of Dorset, to nine since the first cases were detected on January 10."

February 1 2008 ~ "The source of infection for the mute swan population remains undetermined.."

See epidemiological report.
Nevertheless, according to Farmers Weekly
".... the most likely hypothesis is that it was introduced by an infected migratory wild bird. .. the investigation did establish that the strain of the virus is similar to those isolated in continental Europe in the latter part of 2007. Based on testing and surveillance, there is currently no evidence to suggest widespread disease in the wild bird population....The current outbreak has been confined to seven birds found at the Abbotsbury Swannery, which DEFRA stresses represents a very low level of infection in the wild bird population on the site...."
Still no mention of the much needed vaccination for those who want to use it - as Richard Sanders, the senior policy researcher at Elm Farm, said last month, the latest outbreak suggests that the virus is circulating in wild birds and urged Defra to release its stocks of vaccine. The alternative - to lock up all birds - is, he says, "unacceptable, impractical and with some species such as geese, impossible"

January 26 ~ 6th mute swan positive for H5N1 - movement restrictions to remain in place.

DEFRA's news bulletin says only:
"a sixth mute swan collected on 21 January as part of wild bird surveillance in the same area in Dorset has tested positive for highly pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza. This is not unexpected, and our enhanced surveillance of wild birds in the area is continuing including active patrols to look for dead wild birds. There is currently no evidence to suggest widespread disease in the wild bird population, but poultry keepers in the area are reminded to remain vigilant and report any signs of disease immediately. There remains no evidence of disease in domestic birds. Live swans were also sampled on the premises and all results are negative. As of 3pm on 25 January, the restrictions on the movement of poultry or other captive birds in the Wild Bird Monitoring Area fell, and such movements no longer require a licence. Movement restrictions in the Wild Bird Control Area remain in place."
There will be many who would appreciate rather more information than this. What does “in the same area in Dorset” mean? Within or outside the reserve? Was the swan dead when collected? How it is that the BBC is able to give more information than Defra is a mystery See BBC where we learn the swan was on the reserve itself.

January 25 ~ What criteria are used by DEFRA to identify sites for testing for the H5N1 virus?

Peter Ainsworth asked for clarification and got this answer from Jonathan Shaw.
An emailer writes, "Good question, but it’s a pity Peter Ainsworth didn’t go further...
• Are there any independent and/or international experts providing advice on the surveillance strategy?
• Who is on the AI Expert Group?
• Questions to Defra remain unanswered and even unacknowledged. There is also a potential conflict of interest with regard to the wildlife representatives, as they are quite understandably interested in protecting wildlife. It is therefore all the more important to have a balanced expert group that includes independent epidemiologists. It seems a waste of effort to concentrate so heavily on dead wild birds. You only find the large easily spotted birds like white swans, not the small birds that will disappear within minutes ...."
More

January 19 2008 ~ A 5th swan at a sanctuary in Dorset has tested positive

news.bbc.co.uk ".....John Houston, of Abbotsbury Tourism, said: "We are expecting to have a run of positives and negatives while [the virus] works its way through the herd." Restrictions on the movement of birds, imposed last week [7-11 Jan 2008], remain in place. Earlier, Defra said there was currently no evidence to suggest the disease was widespread among wild birds in the area, but officials were closely monitoring the situation. The Abbotsbury Swannery will be given the all-clear if no birds test positive for the virus after 21 days. The 1st cases of the disease were found on 10 Jan 2008."

Jan 2008 ~ "the risk was overestimated," said Bernard Vallat, director general of the OIE

After the slaughter of literally millions and millions of birds worldwide because of fears of a human pandemic we now hear from Paris that Bernard Vallat considers the fear "just nonscientific supposition". Dr Vallat said the H5N1 virus has proved extremely stable, despite concerns that it could mutate into a form that could spread easily among humans.
See MSNBC "We have never seen such a stable strain," Vallat said.
He said concerns a few years ago that a flu pandemic from H5N1 might be imminent lacked scientific proof.
"It was just nonscientific supposition," he told reporters.

January 17 2008 ~ H5N1 "While our policy on vaccination is kept under continuous review, experts advise us that it would not assist disease control in this case."

Hilary Benn has issued a written Ministerial Statement on the Avian Influenza case in Dorset. He does not say who the experts are who advise against vaccination. The statement is now available online "...... no poultry or other captive bird movements from premises are permitted, all birds must be housed or otherwise isolated from contact with wild birds, no wild birds may be hunted, and all bird gatherings are banned. Biosecurity measures apply on premises where poultry or captive birds are kept. We are currently working with industry to determine the availability of licenses for movements from premises and for hunting of wild birds.

January 16 2008 ~ Another dead swan in Abbotsbury

A fourth swan from the Abbotsbury swannery in Dorset has tested positive H5N1 avian flu virus. See Guardian"....Wild birds are the likely source of infection, but Andre Farrar, of the RSPB, said it was "slightly odd" that the outbreak happened outside a migration period."
The Times:
"The new outbreak has renewed calls for the routine vaccination of all free-range, organic and hobby birds against the deadly flu virus.
The Elm Farm Organic Research Centre has been campaigning for such a preventive strategy for more than two years. Defra has a stock of 10 million does of vaccine but so far they have been offered only for use to save rare birds and collections in zoos..."
Richard Sanders, he senior policy researcher at Elm Farm, believes that the latest outbreak is a definite indication the virus is circulating in wild birds and, as we say below, has urged Defra to release its stocks of vaccine. The alternative - to to lock up all birds - is, he says, "unacceptable, impractical and with some species such as geese, impossible"
(A survey of samples collected from Dorset since 12 January is now available at www.defra.gov.uk and will be updated regularly. See also DEFRA bulletin pdf.

January 16 2008 ~ H5N1 " renewed calls for the routine vaccination of all free-range, organic and hobby birds..." which now have to be "kept indoors"

OIE report from January 11th sent by DEFRA:
".....According to EU and national legislations wild bird control and monitoring areas are now set up. The boundaries of these areas are set with reference to the places where the birds were found, while also taking into account the location of local bird reserves and the presence of wild bird populations along the Dorset coastline towards Portland Bill. The boundary of the control area is set at 3 km [1.86 miles] from the relevant points where the birds were found; the monitoring area at 10 km [6.2 miles].
No evidence of disease has been found in domestic birds.
Epidemiological inquiry is underway."
According to the Times ".. All birds inside the control zone - which extends 15 miles southeast of Abbotsbury and includes Weymouth, Chesil Beach and Portland Bill - must be kept indoors. ...... some 32 premises within the zone, of which 19 are free-range operations, involving a total of 24,588 birds.
In the wider monitoring area there are 34 farms, of which 17 are free- range, with a total of 111,488 chickens."

January 13 2008 ~ "Be vigilant" demands the Government - and then cuts down heavily on surveillance and testing

The Independent on Sunday reveals that not only has testing for the spread of H5N1 in Britain been heavily cut but there is disturbing evidence that even such testing as is carried out is seriously flawed.
"...Official figures show that the number of wild birds tested by the Government has fallen by 17 per cent over the last year.... figures were running far behind similar monitoring levels in other European countries..."
It is quite extraordinary that this should be happening at the very time that bird flu is feared to be endemic in Britain's wild bird population. That British test samples are not kept in a preservative solution as in other countries might cause the virus to decompose before it can ve verified. It is more than ever vital now that the Government release its stocks of H5N1 poultry vaccine and "start an orderly programme of preventive treatment" as Elm Farm request

January 12 2008 ~ H5N1 - real concern voiced about Defra's future moves on outdoor birds.

Elm Farm, one of the leading organic research bodies in the country, is urgently asking for a programme of preventive vaccination to allow organic, free range and hobby birds to remain outside. Like Elm Farm, we very much hope that DEFRA will bear in mind that if vaccination is delayed, it cannot then create the firewall needed since, with H5N1, vaccination takes six weeks to become effective. Richard Sanders writes,
"The alternative to preventive vaccination, as suggested in the past by Government advisers and Defra, is the shutting up of all poultry in housing.
Housing all poultry is completely unacceptable, impractical and with some poultry species such as geese, impossible. When the national mood, as voiced so loudly by Jamie Oliver and Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, is for quality, high welfare poultry production, then we must do everything in our power to protect and grow the sector."
Read in full There are now many voices calling on Defra to release its stocks of H5N1 poultry vaccine now and to "start an orderly programme of preventive treatment".

January 12 2008 ~ two more dead swans found in the Abbotsbury Swannery have tested negative for the H5N1 strain.

The Guardian reports that John Houston, general manager at Abbotsbury Tourism Ltd, said: "It's good news but it's too early days to be excited by it."

January 10 2008 ~ H5N1 at Abbotsbury - "likely that all free-range and organic birds will now be ordered indoors in the area."

Three mute swans were discovered dead by staff at the Dorset estate on Tuesday and tests have found the lethal strain of the virus. The Times has a report. We are also told that there is less restriction on movements when wild birds - as here - are involved and the incident will not stop bird gatherings nationally. The Guardian says, " It appears likely they caught the virus from other wild birds or ducks that came into the swannery for the winter months."
The BBC says that "a Wild Bird Control Area and Monitoring Area has been set up around the Swannery, covering Chesil Beach and Portland Bill. Culling of wild birds has been ruled out because experts fear this may disperse birds further."
Reuters reports, "In the latest incident, no disease has been found in domestic birds and a surveillance programme is being carried out in the local wild bird population."
Meahwhile Bernard Vallat, director general of theOIE says of H5N1 "We have never seen such a stable strain." He said concerns a few years ago that a flu pandemic from H5N1 might be imminent lacked scientific proof. "It was just nonscientific supposition," he told reporters. Report at www.msnbc.msn.com

January 2008 ~ Latest news from Google and Yahoo

Opens in new window and gives the day's round up of news articles having relevance to H5N1 around the world.

December 15 2007 ~ Earth monitoring: Vigilance is not enough

Walter Boyce, director of the Wildlife Health Center, and co-director of the NIH Center for Rapid Influenza Surveillance and Research, at the School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, USA in an article in Nature. Extract:
"...Global surveillance is key to tracking potential pandemic viruses such as H5N1. But we need to share samples more rapidly, increase testing in endemic areas and track more than one virus.... Another influenza pandemic seems inevitable, and without a generic vaccine, our best chance of being prepared is to identify, track and stop the spread of viruses such as highly pathogenic H5N1. Two years ago, some believed that H5N1 viruses were poised to spread around the globe on the wings of migrating wild birds. A massive effort was mounted to track their movement but, as of September 2007, very few positive birds have been found in tests of over 300,000 healthy wild birds from more than 40 countries..." Read article

December 13 2007 ~ Study "does not prove" that wildfowl brought H5N1 to Germany

"David A. Halvorson, DVM, a veterinary pathologist and avian flu expert at the University of Minnesota in St. Paul, commented that the similarity between the German and Russian isolates doesn't necessarily mean the viruses were brought to Germany by wild birds. "What is clear is that related viruses were introduced into Germany and they were observed in wild waterfowl before they were observed in domestic poultry," Halvorson told CIDRAP News. "This suggests that waterfowl may have been the source of introduction, but it doesn't prove it. This was known before the viruses were sequenced." The extract is from www.cidrap.umn.edu in Minnesota and refers to the article at www.sciencedirect.com in which scientists say they have found 3 distinct variants of H5N1 avian influenza virus in wild birds in Germany, 2 of which might have been "brought in by wild birds migrating from Russia".
ProMed's comment: "David Halvorson's comments are worth re-reading"

December 8 2007 ~ "epidemiological data from 2007 did not detect infection in local wild birds before infection in domestic flocks..."

said the Eurosurveillance weekly release, 2007 12(12) quoted on ProMed. Nevertheless we also read, " This is open to various interpretations, one being that EU wild bird surveillance, although extensive, has not been sufficient to trace infection in wild birds. .." and, perhaps ominously, "...ECDC's risk assessment is that those most at risk are people with small domestic and hobby flocks, rather than those working on large 'industrial' farms [11], although it is important that the prevention messages reach both. "
One looks in vain for the logic here. Any informed comment welcome.

December 3 2007 ~ Protection Zones could be lifted as early as 8 December and the Survelliance Zone on 19 December providing there are no further cases.

FWi reports that "Redgrave Poultry, the company at the centre of the recent H5N1 avian flu outbreak, has responded to DEFRA's first report into the outbreak by admitting to biosecurity weaknesses..." But we also read that Redgrave says, ""We will .... wherever possible operate farms large enough to justify a dedicated staff. ...our workers will not live on our farms from now on, other than when it is for operational reasons.."

December 1 ~ Poland's first outbreak

www.iht.com "Two turkeys at a poultry farm in central Poland have tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu, authorities said Saturday. It is the country's first reported case of the deadly virus in domestic livestock. The outbreak occurred on a turkey farm near the city of Plock, some 100 kilometers (60 miles) northwest of Warsaw, said deputy chief state veterinarian Krzysztof Jazdzewski. Initial tests indicate the H5N1 strain of the virus, and samples have been sent to the State Veterinary Institute in Pulawy for final confirmation, Jazdzewski added.
Authorities ordered farmers to keep poultry indoors and launched inspections of farms within three kilometers (2 miles) of the outbreak....."

December 1 ~ The UN report precedes a bird flu conference hosted by the government of India in New Delhi next week

The conference is expected to draw health and agriculture officials from dozens of countries.
Among the UN report's (see below) findings:
• 144 countries said they have prepared some kind of plan to deal with bird flu.
• Veterinarians have the least capacity to deal with the H5N1 strain in Africa, East Asia and Pacific countries.
• Some means of compensating poultry owners for isolating and killing infected animals is in place in 66 per cent of the countries that have a bird flu plan.
• Countries generally still have a long way to go to improve how animals are cared for to reduce the risks of transmission and to prepare for the broader social and economic impacts of a pandemic, such as absenteeism from work.
  The UN-World Bank Report, says H5N1 still remains entrenched in Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria, and in some locations in China and Bangladesh," the joint report said in a statement. "Therefore, the United Nations and World Bank advise countries to maintain full vigilance and cooperate to avoid a possible pandemic," it stated.

December 1 2007 ~ "The increase is thought to have resulted more from trade in infected live birds than by transmission through wild birds" David Nabarro

The Canadian Press "....the risk of a worldwide human-to-human pandemic remains as great today as it was when the hard-to-treat H5N1 flu strain first gained intense attention in mid-2005, said a new report by Dr. David Nabarro, the UN official co-ordinating the global fight against avian influenza, and World Bank officials. "We think it will happen sometime but we don't know when or where," Nabarro said Thursday. Three years ago, H5N1 was found in poultry and wild birds in nine countries, the UN bird flu chief said. The increase is thought to have resulted more from trade in infected live birds than by transmission through wild birds, whose migrations change with weather. The upsurge in H5N1 bird flu outbreaks around the world has led to the slaughter of millions of birds across Asia since late 2003. It remains entrenched throughout Indonesia and in parts of Bangladesh, Vietnam, Egypt, Nigeria and China, posing a threat not just to those countries but the world, Nabarro said...."

November 24 2007 ~Why is vaccination of birds against highly pathogenic bird flu still such a controversial issue in the UK?

It seems particularly bizarre when Pivotal work on the application of a vaccination programme aimed at, and resulting in, eradication was carried out in Italy, and was followed by other research, e.g. in Hong Kong and the United States of America, posing no problems of so-called silent spread. While it is true that until recent times vaccination for avian influenza in its notifiable form had always been discouraged, this is no longer the case.The new Council Directive 2005/94/EC4 on the control of Avian Influenza allows the implementation not only of emergency (short term) vaccination following a disease outbreak (as the old Directive 92/40/EEC did) but also of preventive (long term) vaccination plans, which must be based on a risk assessment to be carried out by the Member States. Although Directive 2005/94/EC was transposed and implemented by the Member States into national legislation on 1 July 2007 Our Chief Scientific Adviser is still entrenched within this mindset, repeating the old mantra in order to justify the UK's reluctance:
"Currently available vaccines have disadvantages in that although they are able to reduce mortality, it is possible that some vaccinated birds would still be capable of transmitting the disease if they became infected whilst not displaying symptoms. This would increase the time taken to detect and eradicate the virus."

November 24 2007 ~ Health officials have failed to reach agreement on a new system to ensure developing countries benefit more from sharing avian influenza viruses

Reuters "Health officials have failed to reach agreement on a new system to ensure developing countries benefit more from sharing avian influenza virusesused to develop vaccines, the World Health Organization said on Friday"

November 19 2007 ~2nd H5N1 outbreak. No vaccination policy in place to prevent possible disaster

The Guardian reports that "The site of the new infection - Hill Meadow Farm, in Knettishall..... was identified as having "dangerous contact" with the initial outbreak last week because workers for Redgrave Poultry, which operates all five sites on which culls have taken place, moved between the farms... "
The reluctance to vaccinate birds is looking ever more serious. Unvaccinated birds, prey to the virus, coming into contact with human workers - very few of whom have been inoculated against the human flu viruses with which the bird flu strain might mingle - could so easily lead to a mutation that affects the human population. It is astonishing that such an avoidable situation has been allowed to happen.

November 19 2007 ~ "January is far too late"

The Sunday Telegraph reveals that very few people who work with poultry have received anti-flu injections. Free range and pedigree poultry owners who have not been allowed to vaccinate their birds have been plunged yet again into uncertainty and worry - but not even their workers have been given the anti (human) flu jabs. The Sunday Telegraph says
"vaccinations for poultry workers will not be completed for another 2 months. .... Suffolk Primary Care Trust, which covers the infected farm, said it expected to have vaccinated the workers by January [2008]. But Dr Graeme Laver, an influenza virologist, said: "January is far too late."..."
This reminds us of an email in March from an exasperated breeder of pedigree geese who wrote that the ban on vaccinating his animals meant in effect that
"it is considered acceptable for us to risk contracting bird fly from our poultry, but we cannot be allowed to have normal flu at the same time because that would mean everyone else would be at risk..."
No H5N1 vaccine for birds when vaccines have been approved by both the OIE and the EFSA. Precious little human flu vaccine for poultry workers. One wonders what is the point of a conference such as that at Verona in March if nothing has happened in the UK by the time need arises and when human as well as animal health is at stake? As for the current DEFRA dogma, it seems to us that this information from Intervet carries rather more weight:
"Unfortunately, as with FMD, the anti-vaccination message seems to be the official line, but we are doing what we can to provide people with the other side of the argument...To my understanding, there are no 'silent carriers'. When our vaccine is used as recommended (2 doses 4-6 weeks) apart it prevents transmission of the disease, even with the high challenges used experimentally."

November 16 2007 ~ Worries that the intensive poutry industry wants to force regulation on free range and organic bird keepers

Several emailers have expressed concern that Valerie Elliott's Times article today concludes:
"Poultry farmers are incensed by what they perceive as lax biosecurity at the farm which allowed turkeys, geese and ducks to mingle with wild birds near an ornamental lake. Many are now demanding new rules for free-range and organic birds and for the Government to regulate rather than offer guidance about the need to keep outdoor farmed birds away from places where wild birds congregate."
Such comment from "poultry farmers" - which means those whose unfortunate birds are, in their cramped conditions, kept well away from any natural surroundings - presupposes that the H5N1 came from wild birds. This is looking less and less likely.

November 16 ~ What tends to be forgotten by consumers who would really rather not know where their cheap meat comes from are facts such as these

from Alan Beat's article in Country Smallholding (which should be read in full
"...During 2006, some 3.9 million broiler chicks were exported while 2.3 million were imported, 1.6 million turkey poults (hatched birds) were exported while 1 million were imported, and 233,000 tonnes of poultry meat were exported while 451,000 tonnes were imported. There is similar two-way traffic in other categories of live birds, hatching eggs, feedstuffs and waste products (3). Around 75% of this trade is conducted within Europe, but significant amounts of poultry meat are imported from countries such as Thailand and Brazil."
What is needed is regulation of the intensive systems and - for all who care about the birds - a vaccination policy.
DEFRA, it seems, is still trying to evade this, giving as its reason that
"Currently available vaccines have disadvantages in that although they are able to reduce mortality, it is possible that some vaccinated birds would still be capable of transmitting the disease if they became infected whilst not displaying symptoms. This would increase the time taken to detect and eradicate the virus."
This is almost unbelievable and has been used over and over again by DEFRA to give a sort of spurious justification to its refusal to get to grips with vaccination for any notifiable disease. Dr Ruth Watkins - with a great deal more tact and forbearance than many of us have left - comments on this latest DEFRA statement.

November 13 2007 ~ H5N1 confirmed

The Guardian says, An outbreak of bird flu on a Suffolk farm is the deadly H5N1 form of the virus, Defra confirmed today, while the government warned that the disease may have already spread. .... confirmed the strain at Redgrave Park farm in Suffolk. Gressingham Foods, (formerly Green Label Foods) who own Redgrave Park seems to import solely from Belgium and France so we are puzzled by the fact that Fred Landeg said that it's closely related to this summer's strain in the Czech Republic and Germany. The website says of its ducks
, "Gressingham Foods is a family business, and it shows. We are dedicated to the welfare of the poultry we rear....We maintain excellent welfare standards for the birds by maintaining low stocking rates and short travel times between farm and factory..."
As for the turkeys, 5000 on the same premises might be considered rather more than "low stocking rates" All the poultry at Redgrave Farm is to be killed.

November 13 2007 ~ Free range or factory? Gressingham Foods near Diss in Suffolk:

http://www.greenlabel.co.uk/default.asp?MIS=1
"....Today, we produce over 55,000 Gressingham Ducks each week and operate a modern factory, offices and farms employing nearly 200 people.
Gressingham Foods imports a wide variety of speciality poultry which it mainly supplies to the food service sector. Our speciality poultry and meats include guinea fowl, poussin, quail, corn fed chicken, whole smoked chicken, venison, woodpigeon, Barbary duck breast, Barbary duck leg, guinea fowl supremes, corn fed chicken supremes, smoked duck breast, squab, smoked chicken breast and venison steaks..."
As a knowledgeable correspondent from Holland remarks, "Isn't it a bit early to be blaming wild birds?"
We think it is. We have been here before. See Bernard Matthews page.

Monday 12 November 2007 ~ Bird Flu in Norfolk. More slaughter

5,000 birds - turkeys, geese and ducks - are to be slaughtered.
Preliminary tests showed the turkeys had the H5 strain of bird flu, but it is not yet known whether it is the highly pathogenic H5N1 form of the disease. See Reuters DEFRA's 3km Protection Zone and a 10km Surveillance Zone are being established around the Infected Premises. " Inside these zones bird movements will be restricted and all birds must be housed or otherwise isolated from contact with wild birds. We are also urgently considering with ornithological and other experts what wider measures may be needed. All poultry keepers on the GB Poultry Register will be notified, and the EU Commission has been informed." See DEFRA The unanswered questions of the Holton outbreak are still fresh in many memories. The RSPB, quoted in the Guardian this evening, has warned against the assumption that the disease had spread to poultry from wild birds. The outbreak is in a "free range" farm. See also the warmwell chronology of the Bernard Matthews case - still very much a mystery. UPDATE In a television interview, Fred Landeg said that it's closely related to this summer's strain in the Czech Republic and Germany. (BBC)
No wild birds have been found with avian flu in Europe since late August and the autumn migration is now largely over.

November 7 2007 ~ Avian Flu - Vietnam vaccine success

"Reported cases of bird flu have slowed down recently thanks to swift action and the dissemination of vaccinations to farmers, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Bui Ba Bong said Tuesday. According to Bong, the poultry vaccinated against bird flu should be able to avoid contracting the virus..".www.thanhniennews.com

November 6 2007 ~ Avian Flu - Prevention or Pandemic?

See Sheepdrove for details of the Conference. 26th November 2007 1.30 pm - 5 pm The George Thomas Room Central Hall Westminster
"......Dr. Greger asserts that human choices and actions, such as certain intensive farming practices, in reality pose a far greater risk by creating the conditions in which H5N1 is able to thrive and which, in addition, may allow the virus to become more easily transmissible to and between human beings.
Those present recognised the importance of Dr. Greger’s research, and the urgent need for such a thorough and timely analysis of the circumstances which may increase the risk of a flu pandemic. Furthermore, those present agreed that a strategy for reducing that risk should be developed as soon as possible..."

Oct 28 2007 ~ 650,000 would die from bird flu, says Govt.

David Harrison in the Sunday Telegraph "It is a grisly scenario: 650,000 deaths, with bodies piled up in shipping containers before being buried in mass graves all over the country. That is the nightmare envisaged by the Government in what it describes as the "very likely" event of a bird flu pandemic. The alarming prediction is contained in a confidential Home Office document drawn up to help councils and other organisations deal with a catastrophic outbreak of the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus...." The document is called "Planning for a Possible Influenza Pandemic - A Framework for Planners Preparing to Manage Deaths"

October 6th ~ Bird flu virus mutates into a strain more infectious to humans

Independent "The bird flu virus H5N1 has mutated into a form that makes it more infectious to humans, increasing the risk of a human pandemic, researchers have found. The changes, which only affect the virus circulating in Europe and Africa, are worrying although they have not yet transformed it into a pandemic strain, Yoshihiro Kawaoka, of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who led the research, said.....Writing in the Public Library of Science journal, PLoS Pathogens, Dr Kawaoka and colleagues say recent samples of virus taken from birds in Europe and Africa all carry the mutation, which makes the virus more likely to grow in the nose and throat of humans.
"I don't like to scare the public, because they cannot do very much," Dr Kawaoka tolds the Reuters news agency. "But at the same time it is important to the scientific community to understand what is happening."
Humans have a lower body temperature than birds and the avian virus finds it difficult to grow in the cooler conditions of the human throat. The mutated virus is better adapted to these cooler conditions, making transmission more likely. "The viruses circulating in Europe and Africa all have this mutation," Dr Kawaoka said. "So they are the ones that are closer to human-like flu."."

September 22 2007 ~ "I believe that the Germans are proposing a permanent lock-up of birds"

An emailer writes to tell us that she has put a petition on this page Runnerduck.net and sure enough we read with great foreboding that "German bird-keepers are now threatened with an indefinite lock-up, causing welfare problems in particular for waterfowl.....Joint Protest against the German Bird Flu Policy by 29th September 2007 " - if one is competent at reading German - here is the German petition http://www.gegen-stallpflicht.de/?id=280 but it is easy to sign. Runnerduck.net adds (for English readers)
"We feel bound to the protection of animals and to the health of humans and animals alike and reject intensive holdings. We protest decisively against the current order of having to keep poultry under cover to fight poultry pest. The dangerous H5N1 virus type is not a problem in free ranging poultry but in systems with intensive mass holdings of large animal stocks. They are endangered by infectious diseases as these sickly bred birds are kept in tightly close-up conditions in dark stifling sheds under permanent stress, in conditions hostile to their breeds. In the open H5N1 can exists only briefly and is very limited to the locality. The lock-up order makes no sense as it weakens the immune system of the birds.
We demand:
• immediate and instant retraction of the lock-up order, strict controls of intensive holdings, of the international net of trade routes and measures against spreading the virus by the transporting of poultry and ~products, as well as bringing out excrement.
• Because we see the “culling” of healthy animals as a contradiction of the law for animal protection we demand an end to this method of fighting the pest.
• keeping animals free-range in a manner fitting to their type as well as the preservation and breeding of varied, robust stock is in need of support from the State.
The deadlinbe for the petition is looming so we hope readers who agree will support it.

August 30 2007 ~ Person to person spread

Human-to-human infections have been confirmed by software designed by the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle.
Reuters reports, "....Ira Longini and colleagues at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle looked at two clusters -- one in which eight family members died in Sumatra in 2006, and another in Turkey in which eight people were infected and four died. Experts were almost certain the Sumatra case was human-to-human transmission, but were eager to see more proof. "We find statistical evidence of human-to-human transmission in Sumatra, but not in Turkey," they wrote in a report published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases. "This does not mean that no low-level human-to-human spread occurred in this outbreak, only that we lack statistical evidence of such spread."

August 28-30 2007 ~ EU vets, representing the bloc's 27 member states, will now meet to assess developments in Bavaria and reassess the poultry protection measures in place. This is expected for next week.

iol.co.za "There is one (meeting) foreseen in early September but the date has not yet been fixed," a Commission official said. "It would be a question of revisiting the Commission decision and if necessary adapting the zones... or making any adaptations that may be necessary if the situation evolves." At present, strict movement controls are in place for poultry inside the high-risk area. Poultry must be kept indoors and gatherings of poultry and other birds are banned..."

August 27 2007 ~ The most recent outbreak of H5N1 in Germany happened at a huge, intensive duck-fattening unit

A report on ProMed from the Friedrich-Loeffler Institute explains: "A total of about 165 000 fattening ducks were kept strictly indoors in several units. In a private laboratory RNA of AIV (avian influenza virus) H5N1 was detected in samples from one unit holding 44 000 ducklings of about 4 weeks of age which were supplied to the farm at one day of age by the end of July [2007].
Clinically overt disease and mortality rates increased and the diagnosis was confirmed by the regional laboratory at Erlangen (Bavaria) on Fri 24 Aug 2007. Samples were transferred to the Friedrich-Loeffler Institute on the Isle of Riems immediately and confirmed as containing HPAIV H5N1 Asia on Sat 25 Aug 2007. All ducks on the farm were culled by local authorities between Saturday and Sunday [25-26 Aug 2007]...
... the outbreak appears to be an isolated case.
The farm itself is situated in a so-called HPAIV risk area. Such risk areas have been defined by the federal states of Germany in regions with a potentially high risk of transfer of HPAIV H5N1 from wild aquatic birds and relate, in general, to the vicinity of rivers, ponds, lakes etc. In such areas all poultry has to be kept indoors.
HPAIV H5N1 had been detected 6 weeks ago, in a number of wild birds (mute swans, grebes) in several locations in Southeastern Germany, including the city of Nuremberg, which is situated approx. 50 km (31 mi) southeast of the location of the farm. ...."

August 2007 ~ "These findings make it unlikely that wild birds can spread the virus along established long-distance migration pathways..."

Perspective Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds Volume 13, Number 8August 2007 Thomas P. Weber. Abstract
"The claim that migratory birds are responsible for the long-distance spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses of subtype H5N1 rests on the assumption that infected wild birds can remain asymptomatic and migrate long distances unhampered. We critically assess this claim from the perspective of ecologic immunology, a research field that analyzes immune function in an ecologic, physiologic, and evolutionary context. Long-distance migration is one of the most demanding activities in the animal world. We show that several studies demonstrate that such prolonged, intense exercise leads to immunosuppression and that migratory performance is negatively affected by infections. These findings make it unlikely that wild birds can spread the virus along established long-distance migration pathways. However, infected, symptomatic wild birds may act as vectors over shorter distances, as appears to have occurred in Europe in early 2006."

August 26 2007 ~ 1st outbreak in a commercial poultry in Germany in 2007

"Authorities have closed off a poultry farm in southern Germany after an outbreak of bird flu. Local veterinary authorities said late on Friday [24 Aug 2007] checks at the farm in the Erlangen-Hoechstadt area in Bavaria had discovered birds infected with the H5N1 virus...." Alertnet.org

Update Monday - About 160.000 ducks were being culled in Germany during the weekend after 400 ducks were found dead infected by H5N1 bird flu virus in a farm near the southern city of Erlangen.

April 23 2007 ~ Hungarian agriculture ministry say that EU experts said "it was impossible that the Hungarian outbreak was in any way related to the British."

On Thursday the Hungarian Agriculture Ministry denied a Hungarian link with the Suffolk H5N1 outbreak.

March 22 2007 ~ WHO officials will propose new ideas about producing H5N1 avian influenza vaccines to Asian health ministers next week in Jakarta in the hope of resolving an impasse with Indonesia over sharing of virus samples

The WHO said it would press pharmaceutical companies to expand vaccine manufacturing in developing nations to lower the cost of the vaccines to those countries, Bloomberg News reported today. www.cidrap.umn.edu
Bangkok Post "Thailand has backed Indonesia in refusing to share samples of the H5N1 avian influenza virus with the World Health Organisation (WHO), unless it can be sure of getting a share of any vaccines made. ''We don't want to take advantage of anyone. Fair distribution is all we want,'' said Public Health Minister Mongkol na Songkhla. Thailand will make its case at a WHO-organised meeting on vaccine agreements in Jakarta next week."

February 23 2007 ~ "Stakeholders are currently talking to DEFRA about vaccination delivery. A third meeting should eventually be held..."

Dr Chris Ashton, who represents the British Waterfowl Association on the DEFRA poultry stakeholders group, has asked warmwell to publish a document about vaccination against avian influenza and on the efficacy of vaccines. Elm Farm Research Centre produced a paper on this subject which they launched at a Parliamentary Reception in July while Dr Ashton herself gave a short presentation at a DEFRA meeting in June about the desirability of having a policy in place before the disease actually arrived.
Dr Ashton says,
"....Defra is reminded that some stakeholders do wish vaccination to be used in the event of AI outbreaks in the UK....Stakeholders are currently talking to DEFRA about vaccination delivery. A third meeting should eventually be held, and some information is also on the DEFRA web page
Vaccine delivery refers to the logistics of how to get the vaccine and monitor its use but does not mean that it will be allowed before the UK is ten weeks into an outbreak.." (Intervet has useful information on monitoring etc -Word doc new page)
"....Defra has said that the vaccine will not be used at an initial outbreak (such a Holton). They will try to control outbreaks by culling. They would wait for up to10 weeks into outbreaks before starting to vaccinate. The 10 week figure in the magic number of weeks that free range farmers would be expected to keep their birds indoors/under nets. They would be allowed to vaccinate at 10 weeks and release the birds at 12 weeks to keep their free-range status. So, let's hope there are no more outbreaks in E Anglia." Read in full
What needs to be made a lot clearer is the circumstances in which DEFRA would allow the vaccine to be used. For keepers of small numbers of birds, 'backyard birds', the question is urgent - although luckily these naturally reared birds are the ones least likely to get ill. Most of the cases - certainly in Laos and Holland - have been in industrial poultry, and it does seem to be becoming an inescapable conclusion that it is the global poultry industry and the unnatural rearing conditions which are the problem. As owners say, "Quite why our pets and pure breeds have to take the risk, we really don't know."

February 21/22 2007 ~ "There is little question that adequate vaccination will reduce shedding levels and thus the virus load.."

Dr Bernard Vallat, Dr Joseph Domenech and Dr Stefano Marangon have written the Introduction: to the Verona Conference taking place next month (20-22 March) Its title is Vaccination: a tool for the control of avian influenza. This is a scientific conference on vaccination, co-organised by the OIE, FAO and the Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, and supported by the European Commission to review the current methods and recent experiences in the use of vaccination against avian influenza.
".....a control strategy that is based only on the application of sanitary measures to increase biosecurity and the culling of animals that are infected or suspected of being infected, has proven not to be sufficient to avoid the spread of infection. The OIE and FAO consider that it is timely to convene the best renowned experts to address the issue of global guidelines for vaccination...There is little question that adequate vaccination will reduce shedding levels and thus the virus load ....."

February 21/22 2007 ~ Vaccination of birds. Russia moves immediately. UK still dithers

Warmwell has recently posted several emails from leading virologists on the subject of vaccination. They are highly qualified, have no vested interests. Although the issue is complicated, the bottom line is simple.
• Vaccines protect a population against a ' wildtype' infection when sufficient number are vaccinated - a figure usually in excess of 80%.
• Vaccinees will take a given time (with current H5N1 vaccines the time is, according to Intervet, 1-2 weeks after the first injection in a course of two shots of killed vaccine) to raise a T-cell and antibody response whereupon the vaccinee will be protected. An annual booster may be required.
• The vaccine must be a close enough match in its surface proteins to the wildtype to evoke a protective response, create neutralising antibodies.
Unfortunately, what has been described as "the obsessional focus by DEFRA" is that a few individuals who have partially responded but then, before protection is complete, meet ' wildtype' virus early after vaccine may have mild clinical disease and may possibly excrete some virus in to the surroundings. This does not matter because
• the vaccinated flock puts a stop to the chain of infection. The whole exercise is to reduce spread and these hypothetical few cases, with much reduced virus shedding, would not, even if they existed, allow the virus to gain a foothold.
The earlier vaccination happens the safer for the flocks and the environment because they will have responded fully to the vaccine before their encounter with wildtype virus.
Without vaccination, one is left with the UK solution of racing after the virus, killing en masse, imposing draconian restrictions on healthy stock and trying to stop virus contamination in any local environment with disinfectant.

February 21 2007 ~ It is imperative that the highly pathogenic H5N1 is stopped from circulating round the world. It is dangerous to expose humans and wild birds to infected domestic poultry.

Although what we have seen in Suffolk seems the most economic option for the government when one poultry farm is infected, the real cost is borne by the farmers. They have been forced to take free range birds indoors, make temporary netted enclosures, buy disinfectant, and have had their production interrupted by restrictions. Their livelihood is also jeopardised by the inevitable public lack of confidence. Eventually the cost of this disease spread worldwide by trade in chicks, poultry dead or alive and its products, feathers and faeces will be borne by the world - and far more dearly than the gain of any trade in poultry. Supermarkets must accept some responsibility here and promote vaccinated poultry products without allowing a negative aura to be created or marking them down.

February 20 2007 ~ New Meat Byproducts: Avian Flu and Global Climate Change

The Worldwatch Institute's report Vital Signs 20072008 says that sixty percent of global livestock production takes place in intensive "confined animal feedlot operations" (CAFOs) in the developing world. At least 15 nations have restricted or banned free-range and backyard production of birds in an attempt to deal with avian flu on the ground, a move that may ultimately do more harm than good, according to Danielle Nierenberg, a Worldwatch research associate:
"Locating large chicken farms near cities might make economic sense, but the close concentration of the birds to densely populated areas can help foster and spread disease. In Laos, 42 of the 45 outbreaks of avian flu in the spring of 2004 occurred on factory farms, and 38 were in the capital, Vientiane. In Nigeria, the first cases of avian flu were found in an industrial broiler operation ...then quickly to neighbouring backyard flocks.....
...where animals are concentrated by the thousands, diseases erupt and spread quickly. Trade in poultry from these operations is a culprit in spreading the disease to smallholder farmers. Experts suggest that rather than culling smaller, backyard flocks, the FAO, WHO, and other international agencies should focus the bulk of their avian flu prevention efforts on large poultry producers and on stopping disease outbreaks before they occur.
"While H5N1...may have been a product of the world's factory farms, it's small producers who have the most to lose." says Nierenberg. ( See these two articles on the upcoming report.)

February 20 2007 ~ Russia to vaccinate all birds near Moscow

Science Daily "Russian officials are set to prevent a possible outbreak of the avian flu by vaccinating at least 1 million domestic birds in an around Moscow. While all Russian poultry is typically inoculated twice a year, Russian veterinary experts informed the press agency RIA Novosti that all birds near Moscow will soon be given free vaccinations to prevent an outbreak of the virus. The move comes as five cases of the avian flu were reported near Moscow, including one Monday in which the presence of the H5N1 virus was confirmed...."

February 19/20 2007 ~ "Where has the idea that there is long term circulation of H5N1 in a fully vaccinated flock in the absence of disease in the flock come from?"

Another email from the virologist Dr Ruth Watkins, commenting on paragraph 21 from the EU Directive, should be read in full by those who do not necessarily accept the received wisdom of the government on the subject of vaccination. ".....Where has the idea that there is long term circulation of H5N1 in a fully vaccinated flock in the absence of disease in the flock come from? What is the documentary evidence for it? I would have thought that if the virus were to continue to circulate in a fully vaccinated flock there would be the evidence of diseased birds as the immune cross reactivity of the vaccine virus would be so poor as to have failed to evoke the protective antibody, neutralising antibody to H5. .." Read in full

February 19 2007 ~ David Miliband now says that poultry in the protection zone have been "sampled"

Channel 4 ".....Tests had also been completed on poultry samples from 21 premises in the protection zone and in all cases there was no evidence of infection. ...MPs have been told that the earliest time at which bird flu restriction zones in Suffolk could be lifted was the second week of March - provided there were no further outbreaks or suspect cases in the area. ..."

February 19/20 2007 ~ MEP: "PREMATURE RE-OPENING OF SUFFOK FARM BREACHES EU LAW"

We have heard this afternoon from the office of the South-East England's Green MEP Caroline Lucas. Dr Lucas has demanded that the European Commission investigate the re-opening of the Bernard Matthews plant.
".....If the government doesn't follow EU rules it is British farmers who will pay the price, as this failure means the disease is more likely to strike again - and the EU will be able to blame the UK Government and deny any compensation claims. I have today demanded the European Commission investigate the Government's decision to allow the plant to re-open so soon."
See Dr Lucas'Letter to Commissioner Kyprianou (pdf)

February 19 2007 ~ "It was a complete mess with dead birds still lying around the site - and tatty, torn, blown out buildings and made Bobby Waugh's look like the Hilton."

An emailer tells us that on Friday (16 Feb) ITV 6.30 and 10.30 news programmes both ran an extensive report "..showing the dire state of the farm in Hungary that had had bird flu in geese - it raises all sorts of questions about what the level of bio-security is in Hungary - and if birds slaughtered at the same abbatoir is the same one that dealt with this farm then it is very easy to see how the disease could be transferred. I just wonder if Defra saw the footage and is now acting upon it."
Bird flu seems quietly to be dropping out of the news. Intensive factory methods and the extraordinary to-ing and fro-ing across borders of chicks, slaughtered birds and carcasses continue. But Farming Today This Week (new window) was entirely given over to the subject of the bird flu crisis and raised some very important points about such issues as bio-security in the big plants, global movements, labelling issues and the likelihood of change. Interesting to notice the number of times Mr Fred Landeg emphasised the "humane" nature of the killing of the turkeys at Bernard Matthews, and the fact that Mr Alick Simmons said he was "perfectly happy" about the present situation.) There was even a hint that the political condoning of the always expanding multi-national poultry industry may well be at the very root of the crisis.

February 19 2007 ~ enshrined, as if in amber, is the back-covering rider that vaccinated poultry may become infected

While anxiety increases among the small free-range poultry owners, talk of "silent spread" continues to be allowed to fuel the justification for the UK's policy of non-vaccination. The EU Directive clearly says,
"Vaccination against avian influenza can be an effective tool to supplement disease control measures and to avoid massive killing and destruction of poultry or other captive birds. Current knowledge suggests that vaccination may be useful not only as a short-term measure in emergencies but also as a long-term measure to prevent disease in situations of higher risk of introduction of avian influenza viruses from wild life or other sources. Provisions should therefore be established for both emergency and preventive vaccination."
But then, enshrined as if in amber, is the back-covering rider that vaccinated poultry "may become infected and thus contribute to the further spread of the infection" No wonder many of the talking heads are repeating it. The virologists, however, who understand how vaccination works, say that it is nonsense not to vaccinate.
".... there is now good scientific evidence on the efficacy of H5 vaccines available to the EU. Once poultry have had a full vaccination course it is known when they have the full protection offered by the vaccine. I believe this is about 3 weeks after the first injection. There should be information from Vietnam about vaccine efficacy in the field as well. It is inexcusable if this has not been obtained, for instance by the WHO."
The UK shuts up free range birds and, even in an emergency, drags its feet on vaccination - but, as we see below, the Directive's rules on surveillance are not being followed by those who are so ready to quote it.

February 19 2007 ~ Of course no vaccination for any disease, animal or human, can ever be 100% but if enough individuals are vaccinated a virus infection can be eliminated.

(See below ) The Hong Kong paper cited on our H5N1 page clearly indicates that with that strain of the H5N1 virus and the vaccine used in 1997, infection could not be maintained because insufficient virus was being shed.
The infection chain was broken.
Italy has used vaccination to ring highly pathogenic H5 or H7 virus in years past with apparent success. What seems to be happening in the UK is that officials, who assume that it they say 100% success cannot be claimed for vaccination, will be justified in the public mind in warning against a near zero risk. The media seem most reluctant to point out that choosing instead to ignore the available vaccines which responsible poultry keepers are so anxious to be able to useis far more dangerous for the country .
And not only journalists. It seems that most public service scientists have a clause in their contract banning membership of outside groups that might have the courage to question current dogma. Must it always be a voice in the wilderness that cries foul?

February 19 2007 ~ UK fails to adopt minimum EU measures on avian influenza

The EU Directive says that the minimum control measures to be applied include Surveillance programmes to:
(a) detect the prevalence of infections with avian influenza virus subtypes H5 and H7 in different species of poultry;
(b) contribute, on the basis of a regularly updated risk assessment, to the knowledge on the threats posed by wild birds in relation to any influenza virus of avian origin in birds.
As we now know, no surveillance of live birds in the Protection Zone has been undertaken at all to 'detect the prevalence of infections with avian influenza virus subtypes H5 and H7 in different species of poultry'. Yet the Bernard Matthews plant has been allowed to continue as if nothing had happened. Free range poultry, however, has been forced indoors. The UK, so ready to use EU regulations to justify its sometimes coercive behaviour would appear to be reneging on its responsibility to the population. As for the Chief Veterinary Officer, Debby Reynolds, no sight or sound from her seems to have been in the media since February 3rd. Where is she? The "vets" we do hear from, such as Mr Landeg and Mr Simmons, were heavily involved in overseeing the mass killing of animals in 2001, refuting the usefulness of available speedy diagnosis and vaccination. It is hardly surprising if farmers and smallholders are inclined to feel little confidence in their ability to protect the country or the countryside.

February 18 2007 ~ Tests confirm H5N1 bird flu strain in Russia

Shanghai Daily - Shanghai,China TESTS have confirmed the presence of the H5N1 bird flu strain in poultry found dead in two suburban Moscow districts, an agriculture official said

February 18 2007 ~ Bird flu continues to spread

Bangkok Post - Klong Toey,Bangkok,Thailand The prospects of a complete elimination of the H5N1 virus appear bleak as birds continue to harbour the virus and act as carriers.

February 18 2007 ~ DEFRA "admitted late last week that they have not tested a live wild bird in Britain since the outbreak began three weeks ago."

Geoffrey Lean in the Independent on Sunday "... This appears to contradict repeated assurances from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) that "wild bird surveillance" in the area has been "enhanced"....."
And although the Department claimed that "extensive surveillance from the infected premises and the surrounding area has not isolated any trace of H5N1 in wild birds" - which implies continuing careful surveillance, Geoffrey Lean's article shows that no live bird sampling has been done in Suffolk at all - the nearest live bird sampling has been at Welney in Norfolk, 50 miles away. Peter Ainsworth called it "staggering complacency" It is feasible that gulls have picked up the virus from the "trimmings" and plastic bags 'containing meat products and residual liquid' that the reports themselves said were a threat. And now even landfill sites may be infected. We read in the Sunday Telegraph that "Animal health specialists are alarmed at the possibility that contaminated meat might have found its way on to landfill sites, which are a haven for scavenging birds."
So while the free range birds are forced into unnatural conditions around the Bernard Matthews factory farm, the officials who demand such cooperation are failing to check whether it is even remotely necessary.

February 17 2007 ~ Discrepancies

While the newspapers rush to report what Fred Landeg, Alick Simmonds and spokesmen from the Bernard Matthews plant itself are saying after the publication of the two full reports, the discrepancies leap off the pages - as does the familiar, safe-place-on-the-fence, conclusion "We may never find the exact cause of the disease outbreak "
First, on how the virus got to the UK. We read that, according to Fred Landeg, importation of poultry products from Hungary was "the most plausible route of transmission" but also that "no imports of turkey meat had come from the restricted area in Hungary" How can it be both?
Next, on breaches of regulations. What continues to be referred to as "the farm" was apparently given repeated verbal warnings about "waste trimmings" including polyethylene bags containing meat products and residual liquid, left in the open. It seems, however, both that
" in each case the problem was addressed and no further enforcement action was taken"
and that
"MHS records of enforcement activity, from January 2006 to date, recorded a number of instances where verbal advice to Bernard Matthews about deficiencies and non-compliance was given". Again, how can it be both?
As for the so-called "farm" itself, it is anxious to deny any loss of sales although the Telegraph reports that " Bernard Matthews has disclosed that sales of the company's products have slumped by 40 per cent since the outbreak was discovered almost three weeks ago." Both cannot be true. The plant even claims that the official reports supported the way it ran the Suffolk plant. (Meatinfo.co.uk) and that it both will and did comply with regulations "Today's report indicates that the authorities have identified ways in which biosecurity can be enhanced and Bernard Matthews will comply with any recommendations," the firm said in a statement, and "The detailed nature of the epidemiological report also confirms that Bernard Matthews followed all of Defra's biosecurity regulations at that time."

February 16/17 2007 ~ I can't see any reason for there being all this world trade in live and raw dead animals and their products.

Dr Ruth Watkins writes, " . .. The international trade: legal, illegal, legal but poorly monitored, legal but cheating on the paperwork etc is just brilliant for spreading agents which are highly infectious round the world (if not attendant mosquitoes, midges, fleas and ticks etc.). It can happen innocently and unintentionally. Only a tiny amount, even one infectious particle or virion, can be sufficient to infect a susceptible host such as a fowl with HPAI H5N1....we cannot allow H5N1 and PMWS to spread unchecked. Politics and farming interests interfere with virology sleuthing. I do commend Ian Brown ( chief avian virologist at VLA) for sticking to his guns over the recent H5N1. .... .." Read in full

February 16 2007 ~ Experts are to reveal the interim findings of a Government investigation into the source of the bird flu outbreak.

The Guardian today tells us that "Experts" are to reveal the interim findings of a Government investigation into the source of the bird flu outbreak. They are referring to Deputy chief veterinary officer Fred Landeg and Food Standards Agency's veterinary director Alick Simmons. The full reports are now on line.

February 15/16 2007 ~ "DEFRA statements on the role of vaccination in the control of virulent livestock viruses could make better informed people weep"

Dr James Irvine in this Landcare.org article
".... We were assured yet again by David Miliband, ... in an interview with Andrew Marr on TV BBC1 Sunday AM 12th February, that he had followed scientific advice from DEFRA and the Food Standards Agency (FSA), and that "he had every confidence in the high standard of that advice, and that this was also the opinion of the Chief Scientist, Professor Sir David King", who had vouched for the high standards of the scientists involved...."
"One really has to wonder who is giving the politicians so-called "excellent scientific advice".......What should have been learned is some basic immunology regarding vaccination as a front line of defence against the spread of viral diseases in livestock - or indeed in humans. ......"
Warmwell also recommends the clarity of Dr Colin Fink on the same subject: "... I am sure that vaccine would break the transmission cycle even in high density flocks. Vaccine for all the smallholders' birds would be very effective in preserving them clinically well and in lower density flocks transfer of wild type virus would be minimal or none."

February 15 2007 ~ Tests on nearly 75 000 wild ducks, gulls and other birds have turned up no sign of dangerous H5N1 avian influenza in the United States

Independent online SA"The programme was unprecedented in scope in terms of the range of species of birds sampled, which included waterfowl, shorebirds, gulls and terns, among others," Hon Ip of the US Geological Survey said in an email posted to an infectious-disease message group..."

February 15 2007 ~ "this outbreak on one of my farms was immediately contained and did not spread further"

The Daily Mirror carries an article by Mr Matthews. He says, " I am eternally grateful to my hardworking and loyal staff, to the many vets and experts, to Defra and the other industry bodies that this outbreak on one of my farms was immediately contained and did not spread further."
One wonders how he can be so sure.
We have heard nothing about surveillance of the poultry in outlying districts, only some testing on wild birds. No use of the diagnostic on-site testing - the very first thing that should have been done to ensure that there was no further spread - has been mentioned. Indeed, in none of the news articles of the past days has there been any discussion of what Article 4 of the EU Directive calls Surveillance programmes.
Member States shall carry out surveillance programmes in order to: "detect the prevalence of infections with avian influenza virus subtypes H5 and H7 in different species of poultry"
If adequate surveillance is being done, where is it being done? What epidemiological risk assessment has been carried out as per the Directive and where may one read about it? These are urgent questions. Can it be that the UK will not use available technology until its own "lab on a chip" is up and running?

February 15 2007 ~ China joins Ireland, Russia, Hong Kong, South Africa, South Korea and Japan in banning UK poultry

See FT. The UK export market for poultry is worth £300m, according to the British Poultry Council. Today, Reuters reports that Bernard Matthews is saying was sorry for the scare but insisted it was not his company's fault.

February 14 2007 ~ The Netherlands is allowing its free range birds out again from Feb. 19.

. (See Alertnet) The Dutch, at least, seem to have been listening to the many concerned voices of free range poultry owners in the Netherlands - who also have the option of vaccinating. The UK has, even now, avoided putting together any workable scheme for those who urgently want to protect their birds. Increasing evidence (See e.g. International Herald Tribune Feb 12) as well as common sense indicates that H5N1 is a disease of intensively farmed poultry, spread by the intensive poultry industry. Yet in the name of public health, UK officialdom imposed on healthy hens the very conditions under which the virus can flourish and spread like wildfire - confined, stressed flocks in close proximity. Professor Sir David King in particular, is already looking at a future where "organic and free-range farming would come to an end. ...."
Little wonder that free range owners are more and more sceptical of UK disease policy being applied fairly and as a result of balanced scientific knowledge - and less and less inclined to register their birds. Woe betide the owner of any hen found pecking around in the open air near Holton, but live turkeys are again being bussed in to the Bernard Matthews site for a very nasty end to their short lives.

February 14 2007 ~ Bernard Matthews"keeping the products back because they may contain meat from a restricted zone in Hungary."

Guardian In spite of resumed "production" of live turkeys into meat products, the Food Standards Agency tells the media today that Bernard Matthews has agreed to keep certain products back for 48 hours because they may contain meat, sent in frozen form, from a restricted zone in Hungary.

February 14 2007 ~ Two entirely separated and biosecure parts to the Holton site?.

The slaughter-line at Bernard Matthews has been described as an "adjoining and completely separate factory, which employs a total of about 1,000 staff " - but it was this building that was used for the slaughter of all 159,000 turkeys - both healthy and infected - by Monday, February 5 (see EDP24 Feb 13) while several of the, supposedly wholly separate, sheds were infected. Is anyone able to explain why it was considered safe to continue production at the site - or was this purely the following of EU rules in order to reduce financial losses?
It continues to astonish that production has continued at the site and we read on EDP24 (Feb 14) that "there were one or two raised eyebrows in Strasbourg yesterday that the factory in Holton had been allowed to open so quickly."

February 14 2007 ~ " He kept deferring to something called "the science", as a medieval monarch might defer to holy mother church. . There is no such thing..... "

Simon Jenkins in the Guardian "....The motto of the expert in a risk-averse society is: "I see a risk; give me a contract."......The word risk is now so abused as to render it near useless in political discourse. I forget how many radios I have hurled across the room listening to John Humphrys or Eddie Mair demanding: "Minister, why can't you be 100% sure there is no risk?" I heard two officials debating last week the difference between an unlikely, very unlikely, small, minuscule and infinitesimal risk from H5N1. Each term was then qualified if the turkey was "properly cooked". Properly? Here were scientists who dared not use such simple concepts as "one chance in a billion" or "let's change the subject", because they might not be asked back on the programme....
...As one virologist, Ruth Watkins, said on the radio this week: ask enough questions and you will soon find "there are too many questions still unanswered". Quite so.
..... Miliband seems to have behaved exemplarily in his role as protector of the turkey industry. He made only one mistake. He kept deferring to something called "the science", as a medieval monarch might defer to holy mother church. There is no such thing. ... "

February 14 2007 ~ 99.96% similarity of the RNA sequences of the genomes of the H5N1 avian influenza viruses

ProMed comment "The 99.96% similarity of the RNA sequences of the genomes of the H5N1 avian influenza viruses isolated from turkeys in the UK and from geese in Hungary, and the absence of an obvious precursor, justifies the conclusion that these viruses are isolates of the same strain of H5N1 avian influenza virus.
Questions which remain unresolved, and which may not be resolved by sequence analysis alone, are firstly the origin of this unique turkey/goose strain of virus and secondly the direction of travel of the infection -- from Hungary to England as presently supposed or from England to Hungary. - Mod.CP"

February 14 2007 ~ H5N1 vaccination: "I am sure that vaccine would break the transmission cycle even in high density flocks"

Dr Colin Fink writes on vaccination.
"...High density of birds increases the transmission rate of the infection between individuals. If they were all vaccinated , any virus infection introduced would have low flock spread with little if any subsequent shedding into the environment.. The birds would remain clinically well. However no symptoms in the birds together with no understanding by the handlers of even small risk of infection spread outside a flock could lead to some transfer of organisms out of the flock if the biosecurity was not strictly observed. No biological system is ever absolute especially when run by staff who do not understand transfer of infection .
I am not sure what is better for these hapless creatures and their factory bosses in high density rearing. Such a devastating outbreak with much virus shedding as we saw followed by immediate culling or no virus shedding but a minimal risk of ' wild type' viral carriage for short while only?
I am sure that vaccine would break the transmission cycle even in high density flocks. ."

February 13/14 2007 ~ Selective reporting from interviews with virologists "No one is asking the right questions and they all know that they are not"

The reopening of slaughter and packing at the Holton factory farm took most people by surprise. We note with concern that news reports quote "scientists" but they are not named and we get little input from named practising virologists. Both Dr Colin Fink and Dr Ruth Watkins have been interviewed by the BBC in the last 48 hours. Both discovered that what they considered to be important information had been cut.
In essence, Dr Fink said that the virus undoubtedly was from the Hungarian outbreak and brought in. As for how, he offers this possible explanation - which was not included in the broadcast:
I believe that the carcase material brought in was infected with H5N1. One way of transfer of this infection so rapidly to the flocks would be If  the residue of the carcase meat has been ground up and fed to the new chicks as a high protein feed. That is one way the infection could be transferred into the turkey chick stock. I expect that if they wish to do this they will boil it now."
.... "There are some serious political goings on here. No one is asking the right questions and they all know that they are not. "
As for the myths about vaccination "spreading the virus" so angrily refuted here by Colin Fink, the received - and wrong - wisdom is now appearing even in such otherwise sound papers as Western Morning News (new window). Journalists must talk - and listen - to the experts in virology. This is too serious a matter for pseudo-scientific error to be treated as fact .

February 13/14 2007 ~ "The Meat Hygiene Service cleared the slaughterhouse at Holton in Suffolk. It resumes work today, having been disinfected and relicensed under European Union rules." Telegraph

"One government official called the decision "incredible". But Defra said: "The company is within its rights to begin processing again as long as the birds come from outside the zone."
However, the EU rules from the latest Directive suggest that DEFRA, in using EU legisation to justify the UK government action, may be confusing production with transport. The language of a Directive should be clear for all to understand. It is far from clear.:
Latest EU Directive on Avian Influenza Article 22 - Prohibition on the movement and transport of birds, eggs, poultry meat and carcases
1. The competent authority shall ensure that within protection zones, the movement and transport from holdings on to roads, excluding private service roads of holdings, or by rail, of poultry, other captive birds, ready-to-lay poultry, day-old chicks, eggs and carcases are prohibited.
2. The competent authority shall ensure that the transport of poultry meat from slaughterhouses, cutting plants and cold stores is prohibited unless it has been produced:
   (a) from poultry which has originated from outside the protection zones and has been stored and transported separately from the meat of poultry from within the protection zones;
   (b) on a date at least 21 days before the estimated date of earliest infection on a holding in the protection zone and which since production has been stored and transported separately from such meat produced after that date.
These EU regulations do not, surely, allow further slaughter and processing in the very plant where disease was so recently found?
(The Telegraph article also says that "leaked minutes from a meeting of Cobra" revealed that it was "by accident" that a wrapper proved that the Suffolk plant had been receiving meat from a slaughterhouse 20 miles from the outbreak in domestic geese in southern Hungary. The Daily Mail in fact reported this link on February 10th )

February 13/14 2007 ~ Whatever the Hungarian government says... the virus outbreak in Hungary and UK are linked.

Dr Watkins writes, "Today's news on the Hungarian virus and its very near identity to the Holton virus is, I am sure, made by the laboratory at Weybridge based on sequencing information on many viruses and its analysis. This type of forensic matching has been done over the last 20 years in human virology and becomes ever more sophisticated as there are more viruses sequenced and longer segments if not the whole genome sequenced, and this is combined with greater mathematical power of the analysis programmes. There may even be a unique signature change in the sequence, a duplication or deletion that points the finger even more strongly than nucleotide sequence matching alone. It has to be accepted whatever the Hungarian government says about all the paper work being above board that the virus outbreak in Hungary and that in the UK are linked.
If there were no Matthews turkey farms in Hungary and no importing of any products from Hungary to Holton it would indeed be a mystery but nevertheless linked all the same. However, raw turkey carcasses were imported from Hungary and at least some had been slaughtered at that plant near the outbreak on the two geese farms. ..." read in full

February 13/14 2007 ~ The problem of spread of H5N1 virus worldwide by industrial farming and international trade has not been addressed and has not gone away.

Dr Watkins' comments about international trade spreading the virus were broadcast on the BBC - but, interestingly, comments that the Holton turkey rearing houses at Holton should not have been reopened were cut..
Dr Watkins says that vital evidence may not have been collected if cleansing and disinfection was not correctly done. In her opinion, it was unwise to re-open the Holton premises. Issues of breakdown in safe food handling and biosecurity have not been addressed. What is urgently needed is
• a review of protocols and procedures
• structural alterations to prevent contamination between processing to bird rearing facilities are needed and
• retraining of workers seems vital. (Some seemed unaware that the risk of infection to humans was by breathing in and thought a protective coat was adequate)
  She casts doubt on the completeness of the clean-up,. Natural decay of the virus requires at least 30 days. " This was a very serious outbreak" she says.

February 12 2007 ~ "government must examine, restructure and support the infrastructure of the meat and livestock industry, so that once again it can be the main supplier of meat for the nation"

Caroline Cranbrook writes, in this email to warmwell:
"It is encouraging that the journalists are showing so much more initiative and commonsense than they did during FMD - but depressing that the government and its agencies are lagging behind..."
She includes a copy of an article she wrote for Country Life during FMD which seems even more relevant today, Importing New Risks to Man and Beast
".....government must invest in preventing illegal meat imports. At the same time, meat imports should cease from all countries currently infected ....FMD is a warning to us all. ..... Unless we impose tighter controls on imported meat, our own and our animals' health remains at risk from the risk of imported lethal infection. We must also Buy British - and Buy Local. Supermarkets must shorten their supply chains. To make this possible, government must examine, restructure and support the infrastructure of the meat and livestock industry, so that once again it can be the main supplier of meat for the nation. " Read in full
The email links to an interesting webpage showing ways in which illegal imports of bird flu-suspect poultry have been discovered. Rumania, (a neighbour of Hungary and quite close to the area where infected geese were found in January), confirmed the presence of the bird flu virus in 18 locations and detected 25 suspect cases of in eight counties last year. In May 2006, the manager of a major industrial poultry farm in Romania was arrested on charges of allowing the farm to sell chickens possibly infected with "a potentially lethal form of bird flu". As one ProMed moderator said in a recent ProMed post, ".....the temptation to import cheap replacement stock from a source which just happens to also have HPAI can be great. If such an importing country is a neighbor, many of us are at immediate risk."

February 12 2007 ~H5N1 Hungary's Agriculture Ministry denies any link

Reuters "There is indeed a turkey processing plant in Kecskemet which sent some meat to Sarvar which sent it on to various parts of western Europe," said Andras Dekany, spokesman at Hungary's Agriculture Ministry.
"This is true. But every item was checked and there were no problems reported in any other export destinations." Hungary will submit a report to the European Commission on Tuesday to prove there can be no link between the cases in Britain and Hungary.....Dekany said the virus being identical was not a convincing argument because the virus has been almost the same wherever it appeared around Europe. "The largest margin of difference has been 0.6 percent." ..."
However, the Daily Mail suggested that the slaughter house concerned did indeed slaughter both geese and turkeys. See below.

February 12 2007 ~ "The authorities have known about the situation for years, but have done nothing. There is evidence of not only negligence and utter incompetence, but cover-up, and the problem has grown unchecked."

John Vidal in the Guardian quotes Douglas Gowan, a pollution consultant who produced the first official report into the Brofiscin quarry in 1972 after nine cows on a local farm died of poisoning. The article that the UK government, which knew of the dangers of PCBs in the environment in the 1960s, allowed their production in Wales until 1977. Polychlorinated biphenyls used mainly as flame retardants and insulaters were manufactured at Monsanto's plant in Newport, south Wales, under the trade name Aroclor, and were accumulating in human milk, rivers, fish and seafood, wildlife and plants.
Meanwhile, today - as Robert Persey reveals in thisemail - increasing amounts of catering waste and Category 3 meat waste (feathers, offals etc.) are now being composted and spread on land. Mr Persey is concerned that some of the systems being authorised may not be capable always of meeting the criteria for safe use of such materials which is to treat them for 1 hour at 70^oC. "I regard the risk as being even more serious now that Avian flu is amongst us." Read email.

February 11/12 2007 ~ It is vital that advice in controlling outbreaks is given by professionally qualified clinical virologists (in human medicine and ideally veterinary medicine as well of course) in conjunction with scientists.

An email from Dr Ruth Watkins, received today, strikes us as urgent and important
"....David Milliband and officialdom in general are looking for advice from scientists for their briefing when they should be looking for advice from clinical virologists experienced in outbreak management. With respect to John Oxford he is a scientist but he is not a clinician nor is he a scientist with clinical responsibilities at The Royal London and Barts. The key to a disinterested and balanced briefing for ministers is that the advice should come from someone with clinical experience in outbreaks as well as virus expertise, and this may involve a professional group rather than COBRA. ........
As you know when I was asked to comment for BBC News 24 on the first Saturday of the Matthew's outbreak on the 3rd Feb, I said that the main cause in spread of avian flu had been via humans, trading poultry and its products legally or illegally and in using poultry manure to feed warm fish farms etc. ...... It is vital that advice in controlling outbreaks is given by professionally qualified clinical virologists (in human medicine and ideally veterinary medicine as well of course) in conjunction with scientists. This is an animal virus with important human health considerations. ...." Read in full
(A BBC page of questions on 'avian flu and Hungary' with answers by Professor John Oxford has been added today.)

February 11 2007 ~ "absurdly unscientific misinformation about why we cannot use vaccination..."

Booker's Notebook "... again we have expert virologists, such as Colin Fink of Warwick University" (see Dr Fink's email to warmwell) "staring open-mouthed as they point out how Defra could hardly be getting everything more wrong, above all in the absurdly unscientific misinformation it spreads about why we cannot use vaccination." Read in full

February 11 2007 ~ an international reappraisal of the role of factory farming and the poultry trade in the worldwide spread of the disease.

The Scotsman and the Independent are among the newspapers reporting that yesterday DEFRA admitted that it had known, since long before the crisis, that the Bernard Matthews plant regularly imported turkey meat from Hungary. David Nabarro, the UN co-ordinator for avian and human flu, has said the poultry trade is behind the spread of the virus "this year". Bernard Matthews has now confirmed that the factory did use the slaughterhouse at Kecskemet (see below)
The Sunday Telegraph says, "the British Government is to investigate claims that one farm just 30km (19 miles) from the epicentre of the Hungarian outbreak may have supplied Saga......demands for clear explanations from Bernard Matthews and the Government, grow more pressing by the hour. ....issues around who knew what, and when, and when they decided to make their knowledge public, appear disturbingly complicated "

February 10 2007 ~ Turkeys from the Matthews farm were transported to within only 30 km from the infected geese cases in Hungary - the Gall Food abattoir in Kecskemet - which slaughters geese...

See Daily Mail's own investigation "... Officials are trying to establish whether the abattoir also handled geese from the Szentes farms and thus infected turkey meat which was then exported to the UK. Signs outside the abattoir have pictures of both turkeys and geese, suggesting the plant is used to slaughter both species. ...290 tons of turkey breast has been exported from Kecskemet to Britain. In addition, a further 1,000 tons of turkey product has been sent to SaGa, Matthews's subsidiary in Sarvar. Slaughtered birds are understood to be transported back to Sarvar before the meat is brought to Britain in the form of turkey breasts. ...." An estimated "two or three lorries a week" travelled to the UK direct from Kecskemet. ProMed commented on Feb 8th
".... questions arise: Has Defra implemented appropriate surveillance, especially given that the government vets were unable to identify this disease on clinical inspection? Was the "contaminated food" distributed to any other sites? What route did the lorry (or lorries?) take, and have other locations and countries been alerted? Is withholding this information (or failing to alert a suspicion on an un-named premises) because Defra considered it "commercially confidential" consistent with their duty of care to livestock, livestock keepers and the general public?"

February 10 2007 ~ "Large poultry companies ... have been responsible for past outbreaks "

" investigations, including those carried out by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, show quite clearly that it is the large poultry companies that have been responsible for past outbreaks..." Times
"Wild birds" can no longer be the most likely cause of the outbreak as politicians and the "experts" were saying with such confidence earlier. A Canadian study that tested more than 12,000 live and dead wild birds for avian influenza viruses turned up no cases of H5N1 viruses in 2006, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency announced yesterday. (See CTV.canada) and not one of DEFRA's 5000 tests have found H5N1 on any bird here either.

February 10 2007 ~ Vaccination: a tool for the control of avian influenza - conference 20th -22nd March 2007 - Verona, Italy

For further information and registration please see - http://www.avianfluvaccine2007.org/ Co-organised and supported by the EC with The OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health), FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations) IZSVe (Istituto Zooprofillatico Sperimentale delle Venezie, OIE reference laboratory for Avian influenza)
(Many thanks to Jane Barribal at farmtalking.com for spotting this.)

February 9 2007 ~ "FSA confirmed today that it was investigating the possibility that turkey meat contaminated by bird flu at a Bernard Matthews poultry farm has entered the human food chain."

Guardian and 24Dash and BBC
(Warmwell's latest postings on Bird Flu can be seen in full on the Avian Influenza page )

February 9 2007 ~ "the authorities must work harder to present a balanced picture, and not allow automatic implication of wild birds as the likeliest vector every time an outbreak occurs."

statement from BirdLife International today "....In both the UK and Hungary, the media, 'expert' commentators and some officials, including Government ministers, have been quick to implicate wild birds. In the UK there were suggestions that a small wild bird could have entered the Suffolk farm through an air vent, or that faeces from infected gulls could have been tracked into the building.
If the UK outbreak is confirmed as being caused by transportation of poultry products, this will confirm just how easily this can happen. The spread of H5N1, and outbreaks of other high-pathogenicity forms in the past, have made it clear both how much movement there is of poultry and poultry products around the world, and how easily the virus can be carried in this way...."

February 9 2007 ~ "a claim without the least shred of evidence..... scientific investigation had yet to begin. But Bradnock's suggestions ran far and wide in the national media."

Jonathan Leake's excellent New Statesman article "...Peter Bradnock, chief executive of the British Poultry Council..... "The most likely source is a wild bird," he declared firmly. "Faeces on the concrete outside could have been walked in by a worker or it could have been deposited on the roof."
It was a claim without the least shred of evidence. Confirmation of the H5N1 strain had come less than two hours earlier and the scientific investigation had yet to begin. But Bradnock's suggestions ran far and wide in the national media. A hint that the real answer might be more complex comes from a survey by Defra, whose inspectors have spent five years swabbing the rectums of 5,000 wild birds to see if any were carrying H5N1 to Britain. None were..." Well worth reading in full.

February 9 2007 ~ Poultry source now thought very likely

"38 tons of turkey meat from Hungary, where there was an outbreak of the most dangerous form of bird flu last month, has been delivered by lorry every week to a processing plant close to the company's sheds in Suffolk." Telegraph
Virus is preserved in protein rich material and although Bernard Matthews' commercial director, Bart Dalla Mura, is reported (Channel 4) as saying "vets agree it is just not a source of questioning at all" (which vets? what questioning?), that there was "not a remote possibility" that the outbreaks could be linked because "our farm is about 160 miles away from the outbreak" and "there is not a remote possibility it would have happened in that way " - these protests are now sounding like the wishful thinking of a company seeing its compensation payments looking shaky and some very awkward questions being asked. Peter Ainsworth spoke yesterday of "the version of events they have told so far".
As the Grain report below suggests, it is looking likely that H5N1 is a poultry virus killing wild birds, not the other way around.
One wonders if it can possibly be legal to recycle dead turkeys from one factory farm for use in another. The public may become more aware of how their cheap meat is being produced and the dangers inherent for humans if they allow mass production of sentient creatures. The future of battery cages looks secure, unfortunately, at least until 2012 unless there is more public outrage voiced. Asked about the banning of such cages Mr Bradshaw would only commit himself on Monday on "conventional" cages being banned from 1 January 2012.

February 9 2007 ~ We are told that vaccination for a current strain does indeed work.

" our vaccine each winter tries to predict what will be current" New vaccines are on the way which will act cross strain as well - as for the excretion story after vaccination, based on research that is considered questionable, this " does not stack up virologically".

February 9 2007 ~"...There are also questions to be answered about what ministers knew and when, and if they had information last Monday, why didn't they disclose that information?" Peter Ainsworth

Times "Today's recriminations follow the news that another three of the 22 turkey sheds at the Holton farm had tested positive for H5N1, raising fears that the virus was more entrenched than originally hoped. Government scientists are now trying to establish how the virus spread from hut to hut, or whether all four huts suffered separate, independent infections from the same source."

February 9 2007 ~ "FSA confirmed today that it was investigating the possibility that turkey meat contaminated by bird flu at a Bernard Matthews poultry farm has entered the human food chain."

Guardian ".. the agency would be considering ordering supermarkets to remove packaged turkey from shelves after it emerged that Bernard Matthews had been transporting turkey meat from Hungary..."

February 8/9 2007 ~ "government officials ... no longer believe that Britain's first outbreak of bird flu was spread by wild birds"

Guardian Observer " UK poultry contamination blamed on carcasses from Matthews' Hungarian factory....'The company involved have voluntarily agreed to temporarily suspend the movement of poultry products between their outlets in the UK and Hungary until the investigation is complete"
The rumour that this is an internal infection only has been circulating for several days (see below). We hear now that traces of infection have been found in three more sheds. Wild birds do not flit from biosecure shed to biosecure shed. The implication is that the virus arrived at the factory farm - perhaps by lorry from Hungary - and was spread internally. Neil Ferguson of Roy Anderson's Imperial Epidemiological group was quoted by the Telegraph on Wednesday "There are only two ways it could have got into the Norfolk farm: people or wild birds. Both are equally feasible. This is going to require detailed investigation and we may never find out what the origin was." But the wild bird scenario is no longer looking 'feasible'. He also said recently that there would "inevitably be more outbreaks during the year" but if this was an isolated incident of contamination then the inevitability of more outbreaks can hardly be assumed - unless other factory farms are going to behave in similar ways. The Guardian Observer story says that the government "has known about the contaminated meat since Monday" - yet British health officials told the European Union last Tuesday they did not believe there was a link between the outbreak of bird flu at the Bernard Matthews farm and two recent cases in Hungary where Matthews also has poultry interests. Neither did David Miliband mention the carcasses when he made a statement to the House of Commons on Tuesday.
As for cost-sharing, such a case adds weight to the idea that government should be willing to give up its authority on disease control to an independent board - or are real farmers going to be expected to pay for the consequences of such contamination?

February 7 2007 ~ The myth of the silent spread of virus by vaccinated birds ... is just that. - utter nonsense.

Dr Fink's email ".... The obsessional focus by DEFRA is on the period after vaccination and theoretically before a complete response has been made by the vaccinees. In fact any individual ( man or beast or bird) who has partially responded and then meets ' wildtype' virus early after vaccine may have mild clinical disease and may excrete some virus in to the surroundings. That does not matter because the whole exercise is to reduce the spread of 'wildtype' and this will be a partial result in these few cases with much reduced virus shedding. As one hopes to induce so called ' herd immunity' any flock or herd which has been vaccinated ( but perhaps a bit late !! back to indecision in DEFRA) will still achieve lower excretion levels into the environment and also will have only mild clinical disease - which most us thought was the object of the exercise. The myth of the silent spread of virus by vaccinated birds flying over DEFRA offices is just that. - utter nonsense. " The email is well worth reading in full.

February 7 2007 ~ " there is a danger that reliance on avian flu vaccination for birds could spread the disease further and thus be dangerous" Mary, As I am sure that you know, this is complete and utter rubbish

Dr Colin Fink writes that he is angry. Having read in the answer given by the Baroness Farrington of Ribbleton to the Countess of Mar, (below) the comment that vaccination "could spread the disease further and thus be dangerous", he writes
" Mary, As I am sure that you know, this is complete and utter rubbish and shows that all the 'Virologists' invented by Fred Landeg in Page Street, in answer to a question from the Countess of Mar are a myth. DEFRA cannot be allowed to go on peddling this mis-information with such arrogance and insularity. They cannot even advise their representatives properly and know nothing of how vaccines work.
You may publish this comment if you wish - I am angry about this."
Read Dr Fink's email in full. It is important that an expert practising virologist's understanding about vaccination is seen.

February 5/6 2007 ~ " Is she saying that Defra has no qualified virologists at the heart of the organisation?"

Hansard On February 1st, the Countess of Mar asked "How many qualified virologists are directly employed by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs?" but from the Baroness Farrington of Ribbleton received the answer:"..returns from agency chief executives show that Defra employs 116 qualified virologists who work in the field of virology.
The Countess of Mar: My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Baroness for that reply. Is she saying that Defra has no qualified virologists at the heart of the organisation? How many of those virologists are from the veterinary, medical and scientific disciplines? In view of the importance of viral diseases to animals and humans, will Her Majesty's Government consider setting up a separate steering committee to bring together virologists and microbiologists from all the disciplines in order to give the Government proper advice and reduce their reliance on computer modellers?" Read in full
We should very much welcome comments on the extraordinary answer given of 116 virologists. If there were merely one knowledgeable and practising virologist listened to by the Department and the government there would be little further need for this website.

February 5/6 2007 ~ 10 million doses of vaccine?

See below. In fact, only 5 million are in the UK. The other 5 million are held in Spain.

February 5 2007 ~ Illegally imported chicks from Hungary?

Rumours are now rife that Bernard Matthews has been importing live chicks or eggs from Hungary. If this is so and turns out to be the source of the trouble then the outbreak will be an isolated incident from which the UK government can perhaps at last learn some lessons. Rules about illegal imports have been in place for a considerable time now - but as we have reported elsewhere ( in particular with regard to diseased meat) making rules to protect animal and human health legally enforceable, when breaking the rules can be so lucrative, is another matter. As one warmwell reader says, "Selfish greed puts farming at risk in this country and endangers the life of the farmers and the citizens."
If the rumours are true it not surprising that no one from Holton wanted to talk to Farming Today and that we have heard so little from those running the "farm".

February 5 2007 ~ Not much communication to concerned residents living near the factory

They have complained that there still had not been anyone in touch "to tell them what to do." According to the East Anglian EDP24 "...Suffolk County Council trading standards department said that it sent scores of officials into the surrounding area from Sunday morning to talk to people who may be worried and advise those with small flocks of chickens. But last night even small farms just half a mile away had not been visited by anyone from Defra or the council." We hear from someone living nearby of the "mutually self- congratulatory tone of Maff-Defra and the Suffolk District Councils"
One regular reader of warmwell writes in despair,
"One can only be astounded that the same old mistakes are being made: Government ignorance so no on-site diagnosis and no vaccination information; officials managing to sound both arrogant and complacent; negligence from the "vet" in charge of premises that no vet should countenance; delayed diagnosis; mass killing including the healthy and unaffected; lazy or hyped up journalism - including the wheeling out by the media of the dreadful old guard who know so very little about the virus and such a great deal about their own careers; leaking disposal lorries trailing across the country; lack of communication with ordinary people. As usual, it is the ordinary people and their animals who have most to fear but people are being frightened and reasssured by turns by those they have now learned to distrust. How can cooperation - vital in a crisis- exist in such circumstances?"
Another wrote this morning,
" I find it hard to believe that NOTHING has changed since 2001. Why do so few people care about animal suffering? Any sane person could see what is wrong but those whom the gods would destroy they first make mad. I would have liked to contribute to halting the madness, but I know now that no one will listen. .."
We can only hope that the voices of reason who have been quietly trying to change things in the past six years will at last be listened to.

February 5 2007 ~ " it is disturbing that our officials are so biased and self deluded"

The virologist Dr Ruth Watkins BSc Hons, BFA Oxon, MBBS, MSc, MRCP, MRCPath has written an email to warmwell. She says that a disinterested risk assessment is vitally needed. The email has much to say on biosecurity (never total outside laboratories) and she expresses her wonder that
"animal health experts support these huge unnaturally intensive flocks that are actually fundamentally a risk to health. Outbreaks such as this produce huge concentrations of the pathogen. The lorries covered with tarpaulin cannot be said to be sealed, merely covered. .."
(Aerial pictures on the news show birds being brought out of the sheds and tipped into so-called "sealed lorries" Only tarpaulins cover the lorries - and this was one lesson we thought actually had been learned from 2001 since such leaking lorries are such an obvious risk to health.)
Wild birds have not so far been shown to be spreading the virus in Western Europe, yet so often the first thing suggested by the talking heads (never practising virologists, it seems and often distressingly the same "experts" that landed us in such a mess in 2001) is that the outbreak could have been started by a "bird in the ventilation" However, says Dr Watkins, the first possibility is that someone has been breaking the rules and has somehow introduced the virus directly into the infected shed. She says, "Any rule breaking is likely to be concealed and any illegal activity hidden. However that should not affect a disinterested risk assessment..... Huge and guess-work restriction zones are not necessary and wasting everyone's money." Read in full

February 5 2007 ~ Delay in picking up the infection in the first place is shrugged off by the veterinary profession in a way it should not be. Rapid diagnostic PCR testing could be applied even if from a VLA lab with same day results faxed out.

Ruth Watkins explains that there should always be an agreed procedure for testing for pathogens from such a farm
• First the Matthews vet should be making a diagnosis based on taking samples; that might have gained 2 days.
• Each sample taken for diagnosis should have a protocol applied to it and a number of infections screened for.
• Clinical assumptions must always be tested in the laboratory particularly in intensive farming conditions where infection takes hold like wild fire.
• Even if there was E coli infection as the vet suspected, it should not preclude testing for avian influenza as part of a standard protocol as both infections could be present.
• I suspect the veterinary testing is based on the vet's request for a specific pathogen and not a screening protocol.
• This is also likely as a cost cutting device as all veterinary tests must be paid for. 
  Secondly the rapid diagnostic PCR testing could be applied even if from a VLA lab with same day results faxed out. Once there is an outbreak then on site rapid PCR testing should be applied.
Read in full

February 5 2007 ~ When bona-fide, certified, safety-and-efficacy- tested vaccines are used, the results do not disappoint.

Professor Van der Velden is quoted in this morning's Independent,"There should definitely be a debate about vaccination of poultry," said Professor Koos Van der Velden, the chairman of the European Inf luenza Surveillance Scheme.......The situation in Suffolk is expected to be top of the agenda at a meeting of the EU's veterinary experts in Brussels today". We are dismayed to see that the Independent adds, " UK scientists fear vaccination could mask the start of an epidemic because it reduces the infectiousness of birds and stops them dying but does not halt the spread of disease."
Many will find it sickening that the notion, put forward by Sir David King, that vaccination does not halt the spread of disease, seems to have been widely accepted by journalists. Such a statement is highly misleading. ProMed moderator "AS" makes clear that
"When bona-fide, certified, safety-and-efficacy- tested vaccines are used, the results do not disappoint.." ProMed
The UK does hold 10 million doses of vaccine for use in creating a buffer zone if further outbreaks occur but there are no signs yet that they are to be used and no plans at all to introduce routine vaccination.

February 5 2007 ~ possible links between the Suffolk bird flu outbreak and that in Hungary are now being investigated.

Farming Today's Mark Holdstock reported this morning, "There seems to be a genuine puzzlement about how the disease reached this plant although one villager told me that he had seen a lot of Hungarian lorries entering and leaving the site..."
The Telegraph tells us that only now are "tests to be carried out on wild bird droppings, the most likely source of the infection. Defra began a survey in which every movement of staff, food or bedding will be analysed to see whether there could be a link with the outbreak of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the virus in Hungary 10 days ago."

February 5 2007 ~ The costs of failing to heed expert advice

DEFRA will have to compensate the Bernard Matthews farm at the value of each bird just before slaughter and this could be over £500,000 just for this one farm. Under the Animal Health Act 1981, companies will be compensated for all healthy birds slaughtered.
At the time of the Scottish scare in April Dr Breeze wrote about on-site diagnosis being used for H5N1 detection and calculated that Scotland could be the best equipped country in Europe for between £350,000 and £400,000 :
Extract ".A RAPID PCR machine (www.idahotech.com) costs about £40,000 pounds. ..the RAPID replaces procedures that previously required very costly biological high containment laboratories with enormous fixed operating costs. ..There are hundreds of scientists and technicians... who know how to do PCR tests (a standard lab tool) and who could learn the works of the RAPID in an afternoon....... In January 2006 there was an avian influenza conference in Kiev Ukraine attended by over 350 medical and veterinary officials from the US, Europe and seven countries of the former Soviet Union: this was followed by hands on avian influenza H5N1 detection training on the RAPID for veterinary lab staff from six countries. ... ....
Back in April, when the Norfolk outbreak of a mild strain of bird flu, the low pathogenic H7N3 caused the culling on suspicion of thousands of free range chickens, there were veterinary experts, Elm Farm, The Soil Association and many concerned poultry owners, all urgently trying to get their message across. (See entries from April below). Many months before, in October 2005, the Soil Association had written a personal plea to Mr Blair about fears that pressure was
"... bearing down on policy-makers and closing off options for currently viable and positive measures that science and sense suggests should be considered. . .." Read in full
The free range sector's anxious voice remains unheeded. Professor Sir David King is already looking at a future where "organic and free-range farming would come to an end. It would change farming practices...." There are thousands of people in the UK who care deeply about raising birds in a natural environment - both for the birds' health and welfare and for our own. They are now aghast. The costs of this refusal to listen may far exceed the costs feared by the government for implementing the 'currently viable and positive measures that science and sense suggests should be considered.'

February 4/5 2007 ~".... the first 71 birds died last Tuesday. But the outbreak was not reported to government vets until Thursday evening, after another 1,000 died.

It took a further two days before European Union scientists managed to conduct tests and were able to confirm that the virus at the farm, in Holton, near Halesworth, was H5N1. Even after that, the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) took until yesterday evening to impose the obligatory exclusion zone because legal wrangles meant the required forms had not been signed in time...." Telegraph

February 4/5 2007 ~ "H5N1 strain of bird flu is essentially a problem of industrial poultry practices"

Speculation about the cause of this outbreak continues to focus on wild birds. The tricky fact that migration has not yet begun is explained by 'unseasonal warm weather'. However, we are reminded of the Grain report concluding that H5N1 is a poultry virus killing wild birds, not the other way around - an alternative hypothosis that got backing in an editorial in the Lancet medical journal last May. The Grain report said:
"... The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu is essentially a problem of industrial poultry practices. ... while wild birds can carry the disease, at least for short distances - its main vector is the highly self-regulated transnational poultry industry, which sends the products and waste of its farms around the world through a multitude of channels..."
Bernard Matthews farms are an extremely intensive form of agribusiness and one wonders if it too sends products and waste of its farms ( including a very large turkey complex in Hungary operating under the SaGa Foods brand) around the world "through a multitude of channels".
In a recent ProMed post, the moderator said, ".....the temptation to import cheap replacement stock from a source which just happens to also have HPAI can be great. If such an importing country is a neighbor, many of us are at immediate risk."

February 4/5 2007 ~ question mark over where the infected birds' carcasses were taken to be disposed of

A local observer wrote today,
" The first infected birds from the original shed were sent into Norfolk and possibly into Lincolnshire, not to Staffordshire. Why?"

February 4/5 2007 ~ "I cannot help but wonder why we are slaughtering birds and then moving them many, many miles to be incinerated."

is a question asked by a free range farmer and quoted by the BBC. Elsewhere on the BBC answers to current AI questions are given by Professor John Oxford (profile) - explaining for example that "the carcasses will have to be moved in steel containers which are totally secure." It may be remembered that Professor Oxford, a leading virologist, commented after the infected dead swan was found at the end of March, that
vaccination - in conjunction with careful monitoring - would be a useful way to help to control the disease.

February 4 2007 ~ Additional Restricted Zone

DEFRA "This is in addition to the 3km Protection Zone and 10km Surveillance Zone introduced earlier today. The Restricted Zone covers east Suffolk and South East Norfolk bounded to the west and the north by the A140 and A47 respectively, and is approximately 2090sqkm. It requires the isolation of poultry from wild birds and movements to be licensed. As further information becomes available and in consultation with ornithological experts the restrictions in place may be adjusted."

February 4 2007 ~ Sir David King ruled out vaccination a year ago

Like us, the Soil Association was "mystfied" and "dismayed" by the decision not to vaccinate against H5N1 and called for the use of vaccination of all poultry close to any outbreak. As the BBC reported a year ago in February 2006
"They have got to bring in every weapon in their armoury," said the association's Robin Maynard. He said he had a sense of "deja vu", likening it to the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease.
"The end result was 11 million animals slaughtered and £8bn cost to the tax-payer. "We just don't want to go down that barbaric, medieval route."
As for the deployment of on-site rapid diagnosis, Dr Roger Breeze described last March how his team was building a chain of 30 laboratories in Central Asia to provide real time PCR diagnosis of avian influenza, linked by an electronic disease reporting system to the Chief Veterinarian in Tashkent and to the United States. PCR capability for avian influenza is now in place in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Yet in the UK rapid diagnostic testing is only dimly understood, it seems, and, as far as we are aware, there are no plans to use such existing technology. The unwelcome suspicion is that this is because it is not yet made by those in the UK who can profit from it financially.

February 4 2007 ~ "Killing infected poultry flocks ad infinitum, without adjunct vaccination..is a policy that has not been successful over the last decade"

Last April we received an important email from two virologists warning that the UK still has insufficient or no H5N1 influenza vaccine stocks to protect the poultry flocks. They pointed out that it is essential to have clinical virologists working alongside Veterinarians, advising the UK government. They made it clear, back in April, that "the failure to prepare reflects a lack of understanding of viral disease in DEFRA and government and has implications for human disease risk."
"We believe that it is essential to have Clinical Virologists with an understanding of human disease and the value of vaccination, working alongside Veterinarians, advising the UK government and making decisions about preparation and limitation of the H5N1 infection in birds. Killing infected poultry flocks ad infinitum, without adjunct vaccination, as a means to control infection carried by wild birds, is a policy that has not been successful over the last decade, in eradication of this highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza. The pronouncements this week by Professor Sir David King UK Chief Scientist are not encouraging.
Vaccination is the most useful weapon we have against epidemic viral disease. Further spread of infection is halted by a vaccinated population..."
Read in full

February 4 2007 ~ CIWF has never been allowed to visit Matthews' factories

Media frenzy - driving political hot potatoes away from the front pages - is as predictable as it is dismaying. Scaremongering about human health ("public told not to panic") tends to silence protest at the mass gassing of birds. Behind the bureaucratic demands for poultry to be put indoors within a 10km protection zone and the nationwide banning of pigeon races one hears the slamming of the stable door. As we have often regretted, DEFRA has not chosen vaccination as even part of their strategy to combat this global pandemic. As Dr Ruth Watkins asked in an article written many months ago for the CLA,
"... Why not vaccinate free-range poultry and pheasants as well as hold vaccine in reserve to ring vaccinate an outbreak in a domestic flock? Vaccination may be found necessary in bio-secure flocks to prevent breakdowns of infection in intensive poultry systems. If we do not order or make any vaccine for birds then we can never use it. Are we heading for another disaster on the scale of 2001?"
Pheasants are especially vulnerable to infection from wild birds. They are reared in Spring and then released into the local habitat. Vaccinating young pheasants before release would be the sensible option. As today's Independent on Sunday says, the outbreak
"casts doubt on the adequacy of defences against the disease, which the Government had said were the best in the world."
Once again we hear of "increasing risks of it arriving through migrating birds" The Bernard Matthews farms are strictly controlled and impermeable. Not even the highly respected Compassion in World Farming has ever been allowed in to visit. One correspondent, after mentioning the Bernard Matthews farms all over Europe, including Hungary, writes, "And they are telling us that it was a little sparrow in the ventilation system? Dont make me laugh!"

February 3 2007 ~ Suffolk bird disease is H5N1

Guardian 12.28 pm
"Samples from the infected establishment were immediately sent to the Community Reference Laboratory in Weybridge, which has this morning swiftly confirmed the disease to be the H5N1 strain of avian influenza.
The EU Commission has backed calls from Euro-MEPs for a stockpile of bird flu anti-viral drugs to be set up - but only if national authorities are prepared to pay for it.

February 3 2007 ~ Bird disease in Suffolk. Bernard Matthews farm - 160,000 turkeys in close proximity

Tests for H5N1 are going on at the VLA. Meanwhile DEFRA's contingency plan involves killing all the birds. The BBC quotes Peter Jinman as saying ""I think we do have to be very cautious about this particular situation. It does seem on the face of it very surprising if it's a commercial flock which is obviously going to have high biosecurity, a considerable amount of checks going on and, as we know, predominantly the concerns have always been about wild bird spread of this disease."
See also ProMed

January 16 2007 ~ Japan confirms bird flu outbreak

Japan confirms a recent outbreak of bird flu at a poultry farm was H5N1 strain BBC

January 2007 ~ Morinda Citrifolia bolsters immune systems in wild birds and is used by locals to treat Avian Flu-like diseases

www.newfarm.org/depts ".......( feathers falling out, purple skin, sores, oozing eyes and beak, that no one else wanted) and we proceeded to treat it. We force-fed the chicken pureed fruit for a while, then when it got enough strength back to hold its head up, we let it eat on its own.
After about 18 hours, it seemed totally revived, with no signs of AI illness (such as oozing eyes or purple skin), and its sores had begun to heal. So, we let it run around with the other free-range chickens and noticed that it frequently ate the weipwul (Morinda Citrifolia) off the ground as its food of choice. Within three weeks, its feathers had grown back and we couldn't distinguish it from the others. ..."
Comment from page:
"..... There are many names www.ctahr.hawaii.edu/noni/worldwide_names_13.asp for this crop, which has many traditional and contemporary medicinal uses www.ctahr.hawaii.edu/noni/downloads/morinda_species_profile.pdf.
The traditional role of the noni (Morinda Citrifolia) is documented here www.agroforestry.net/tti/Morinda-noni.pdf with full botanical background, and here www.consumerhealth.org/articles/display.cfm?ID=19990303205600 in greater medical detail.
The weipwul/noni tree is included in a USDA-SARE farm profile www.sare.org/publications/naf2/calvo.htm as part of an integrated agroforestry enterprise in the Northern Mariana Islands.
A wild fruit that combats this deadly virus would be a confounding development, and perhaps provide insight into how else birds and people might boost their immune systems in similar ways."

January 2007 ~ A new outbreak of H5N1 bird flu has hit Nigeria

www.todaysthv.com "...one new state has reported its first cases in birds after months without any known infections...The last known infection was in September."

January 2007 ~4 human deaths this week in Indonesia. Japan waits for results of tests

www.mlive.com ".... In Japan, agricultural officials announced Saturday that the H5 strain of bird flu had been identified in thousands of chickens that died at a poultry farm in the south. Further tests were under way to determine if it was the H5N1 strain, which has killed 157 people worldwide since 2003. Indonesia said two more of its people died from bird flu, raising the toll this week to four in the latest cases to strike the country worst hit by the virus. Sixty-one Indonesians have died since H5N1 first appeared in the its commercial poultry stocks and backyard chickens in 2004. Indonesian authorities said all four dead were believed to have caught the virus directly from chickens and were not known to have had contact with each other. ..."

December 2006 ~ Vaccination of zoo birds

DEFRA says, "English zoos are to be allowed to vaccinate their birds against avian influenza because of their vital role in global conservation. English zoos wishing to vaccinate their birds can now apply for permission, subject to meeting the eligibility criteria. Further information...

Information on Control measures for pigs (including pet pigs) in the event of an avian influenza outbreak has been published."

December 2006 ~ China has promised the new head of the World Health Organisation that it will share bird flu samples more quickly

Reuters ".... Last month, China agreed to share long-sought bird flu virus samples from 2004 and 2005 to support global efforts to prevent a flu pandemic. The WHO has said its understanding had been hampered by China's refusal to share bird flu samples.
China recently rejected findings in a paper published by Hong Kong and U.S. scientists that they had detected a new strain of H5N1 virus in the southern Chinese province of Fujian last year. ..."

December 1 2006 ~ Thailand is reviewing the pros and cons of using bird flu vaccines

According to www.etna.mcot.net a Thai Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives committee "should recommend whether or not to use the vaccine approach by late January. ..."
"....The committee will consider the implications, positive and negative, of using available avian influenza vaccine by analysing scientific research reports and case studies of vaccinations being applied in other countries. It is expected that the committee report its findings by the end of January, he added. The committee will also recommend guidelines on how to use the vaccine safely and efficiently. The ministry committee will also discuss alternative methods to combat avian flu--such as adopting closed farming systems and bio-security measures to contain the spread of the virus. An effective bird flu vaccine has only recently been developed and improved, he said...."

November 23 2006 ~ Scientists worldwide are craving information on the H5N1 avian flu virus.

CBC Canada "....two international teams of researchers scored major scientific credibility points Wednesday when the New England Journal of Medicine published their articles on the diagnosis and treatment of a mere 16 H5N1 patients.
.With the official World Health Organization case count hovering near 260 human cases and 153 deaths from 10 countries, it might seem the problems Turkish doctors experienced diagnosing eight patients last January or the course of illness experienced by three clusters of eight Indonesian patients last year wouldn't rate publication in the world's most prestigious medical journal. .... there is so little clinical information about H5N1 disease in the scientific literature that experts are eagerly welcoming the addition...
"The number of documented human cases of H5N1 and the number of deaths attributed to it - well characterized - is still a relatively small number," Dr. Lindsey Baden explained.
..... A myriad of questions continue to puzzle scientists:
• How does a bird virus manage to infect people?
• With so many people exposed, why do so few get sick?
• Why do so many clusters of cases among blood relatives occur?
• Why do children make up such a disproportionate number of the total cases?
But with cases occurring randomly in remote and varied parts of the globe, gathering information to accurately chart this disease will remain a challenge, Fukuda admitted. That's because dealing with human cases can place hospitals in crisis mode. And rigorous science is hard to do in a crisis...."

November 8 2006 ~ Australia

The biotechnology company Imugene Ltd has secured an $880,000 grant to produce and test bird flu vaccines on chickens. www.wabusinessnews.com.au

November 7 2006 ~ "The World Health Organisation has urged Chinese and foreign scientists to stop squabbling and share information to figure out how to combat a new H5N1 bird flu virus strain that is spreading unchecked in poultry flocks.

Instead of having a battle in the media ... we encourage the scientists from the Chinese government and from Hong Kong and elsewhere to sit round a table and go over all these details," said Henk Bekedam, WHO's China representative. "This is an ideal opportunity to get a better idea what is happening in China and assess strategies that have been effective and develop even more targeted strategies if there is a need."
Chinese officials and scientists rejected a paper published last week by Hong Kong and U.S. scientists who said a new vaccine-resistant "Fujian-like" H5N1 strain had emerged in poultry in China and may spread across Asia and Europe. In an interview with Chinese media published on Tuesday, two Chinese scientists fired strongly worded rebuttals, saying there was "no scientific basis" for the views and conclusions in the paper. They accused the foreign researchers of "unscientific methods" and said China's vaccination programme was effective. But they gave no details or data, something that Bekedam says is badly wanting..." Reuters Alertnet

November 3 2006 ~ "Misinformation has led to wild birds bearing major blame for transmission of the disease"

.... the trade in caged birds and human movements may well play a far more significant role in the spread of bird flu.... in some cases, these pathways have been underestimated and do not receive proportionate media exposure."
Shanghai Daily quotes Dr Vincent Martin, an official with the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization
".... Evidence indicates wild migratory birds play a minor role in the long-distance spread of the virus, Martin said, adding that the main causes of the deadly disease are the trade in poultry and poultry products.
Marco Barbieri, executive secretary of the Convention on Migratory Species of the UN Environmental Program, said that despite media attention the spread of bird flu is not widely understood.
Misinformation has led to wild birds bearing major blame for transmission of the disease, the official said. "This creates political pressure for ill-advised and disproportionate policies such as the culling or harassment of wild birds and the destruction of wetland habitats," Barbieri said.
Other modes of transmission, such as the trade in poultry and poultry products, the trade in caged birds and human movements may well play a far more significant role in the spread of bird flu, he said. And in some cases, these pathways have been underestimated and do not receive proportionate media exposure. ....Close contact between wild birds and poultry can lead to cross-infection. The loss of wetlands around the globe has forced many wild birds into alternative sites such as farm ponds and paddy fields, bringing them into closer contact with chickens, ducks, geese, and other domestic fowl. ...."

November 3 2006 ~ Nabarro wants a "reform of the poultry farming techniques"

Avian influenza is likely to remain a significant global threat for animals and humans for the next decade, according to the top UN coordinator Dr David Nabarro. He said to AFP on Thursday "The virus is likely to be with us for the five or ten years to come. The risk of a mutation to cause pandemic is still very much there. As long as the virus is present in birds, there will also be a threat of sporadic human infection, and a possibility of a mutation which would cause at the end of the day a pandemic.
Trying to estimate the potential mortality of a pandemic is very hard. What Ive already said is that you could have of range of between five and 150 million deaths. Its the reason why I do think we a have to put now plenty of energy towards a long term reform of the poultry farming techniques, in order to reduce the risks of human infection.
More than 209 million poultry have now died or been culled worldwide since January 2004 because of H5N1.
In the UK, Exercise "Winter Willow" will take place over at least three weeks from late January involving officials from the Cabinet, individual health trusts, the police and education authorities across the UK. See www.continuityforum.org

October 25 ~ German H5N1 vaccination plan

There are, at present, no reported outbreaks of avian influenza in either domestic poultry or wild birds in the EU. Protection and surveillance zones around previous outbreaks have now all been lifted.
The Commission and Member States have endorsed a vaccination campaign against avian influenza that the German authorities intend to carry out on 3 commercial farms in North Rhine Westphalia over the next 2 years. "The vaccination will be carried out for research purposes only, as part of a major field study to determine the effects and results of vaccinating against avian influenza." See: http://ec.europa.eu

October 21 2006 ~ Details of 17 new avian and pandemic flu research projects have been announced

EU memo IP/06/1413 announces 28.3 million euros (£20 million pounds) of new funding for research projects in the field of avian and pandemic influenza. Those addressing animal health will cover vaccines, better diagnosis and early warning systems, increased knowledge of the avian influenza virus itself, technology transfer to third countries and a network for monitoring migratory birds.
Intervet says
"The primary aim of this project is to develop avian influenza vaccines based on live vector vaccines which can be mass applied through spray, drinking water or eye drop instead of injection.. This would offer considerable advantages like mass applicable administration and a less labour intensive and much more animal friendly application. Furthermore, vaccination via the airways, the natural route of infection also for influenza virus will result in a more complete and faster protection, which can be very important in case of a disease outbreak..."

October 20 2006 ~ Avian Flu : "...the struggle Defra had to get enough poultry workers for the cull "

business.edp24.co.uk reports today on the very nasty reality of the UK's Bird Flu culling policy in Norfolk last March, mentioning "the grieving is probably akin to losing a relative", the lack of adequate compensation, the ostracism and - not least - the difficulties DEFRA had getting enough people to carry out the mass killing. (Any attempt to make the killing quicker by the revoltingly termed "ventilation shutdown" has been roundly condemned.)
This all suggests that when H5N1 is here there will be a miserable chaos unless policies change.
The East Anglian paper reports the words of the owner, Mr Dunn:
"......"I clearly remember the day they culled both flocks, it was my wife's birthday... ..
I have never seen my staff in tears before, we just couldn't face being on the farm that day - I think I spent the day gardening. Afterwards the grieving is probably akin to losing a relative but eventually you have to think this is here and deal with it."
"We were six months without any income.....They need to review the fairness of the compensation system." .... "You really find out who your friends are..... there were people telling us 'If you come in one door then we will walk out the other'. It was like suddenly becoming a leper."...the family also received lots of messages of sympathy and support .."
As Valerie Elliot in the Times reported in May, these free range birds "... had to be culled because H7N3 flu is a notifiable disease...." even though this was low pathoenic H7N3 and "...Birds on the free range unit... suffered only a mild form of the flu and none died from the infection." Times May 2 2006
As we never tire of saying, use of on-farm diagnosis would enable a rapid decision about the risks of disease. Vaccination (see H5N1 page) for those owners who would prefer not to suffer as Mr Dunn's family did should surely - as the EU now concedes (see also below ) - be requested.and allowed.

October 18 2006 ~ Killing sauce for goose is not sauce for the rare breed gander

Newcastle Disease (pigeon variant) in East Lothian. The SVS has, for the moment, finished killing. However, because Newcastle Disease struck premises containing a number of rare species "of high conservation value" it was decided to exempt them from the mass culling: "These birds will be vaccinated, tested and kept under quarantine conditionsfor 60 days under strict biosecurity." (www.scotland.gov.uk)
(Once again, we see that the reasons cited for mass culling are not based in veterinary science. They are pragmatic decisions made by those in control. Yet the reasons used so contemptuously to dismiss the pleas of owners who want to preserve their livestock so often masquerade as "best scientific advice". It is worrying that such illogicality and downright dishonesty is not being roundly and loudly challenged. )
As a moderator at ProMed says, "Details of the vaccines used, the vaccination schemes (including revaccinations and their timetable) applied in the various bird species involved, and results of the anticipated post-vaccination serological follow-up are of significant value for similar possible future disease events elsewhere and will be welcomed."

October 18 2006 ~"APHIS allowed states to use the ARS test without validation"

It may be remembered that when Newcastle disease broke out in the Southwestern U.S. in the Autumn of 2002, "USDA again chose not to deploy the real time PCR test developed and demonstrated 2 years earlier by ARS scientists in Athens, GA." - but was then minded to change its policy in the face of financial losses - and the "stated reason" for ignoring the test was suddenly found not to matter any more. See www.humanitarian.net/biodefense
" The stated reason was that this test had not been validated by APHIS - lack of APHIS validation had also been cited as a reason not to deploy the FMD test in 2001. In fact, in February 2001, APHIS had never validated any of the PCR tests it had long employed for detection of foreign animal disease agents, had never licensed any PCR test for any animal disease in the U.S., and had no protocols for how validation should be conducted.
Some weeks after the State of California developed and deployed its own real time PCR test for Newcastle disease, APHIS allowed states to use the ARS test without validation. But much critical time had been lost. "

October 18 2006 ~ The required double-dose Bird Flu vaccination costs around 6p a bird - but DEFRA says that EU "requirements" could make vaccination cost £2 pounds for a single bird

Ruling out any pre-outbreak vaccination programme, Defra says that any decision to vaccinate during a disease outbreak would be "risk-based on expert advice". See H5N1 page. Not surprisingly, dismay among poultry owners has been expressed at DEFRA's estimated costs when the actual vaccination costs only 6p. All this seems to make even less sense when we remember that only a few days ago, the European Commission SANCO/10103/2006 rev. 3 Discussion Paper was saying:
"... Despite the constraints that make it difficult to properly assess the risks and the benefits of using vaccination as an additional HPAI H5N1 prevention and control tool, it appears wise to further explore this option in the EU, taking also into account the valuable experience gained in recent years in Italy, where following the major outbreak of HPAI of 1999/20002, a DIVA vaccination strategy has been developed and implemented..... Further experience has also been recently gained in France and the NL, which have implemented vaccination of poultry in the framework of the new AI control Directive 2005/94/EC. .."
(See also below. )

October 17 2006 ~ the required double-dose AI vaccination costs around 6p a bird - but EU "requirements" could make vaccination cost £2 pounds for a single bird, says DEFRA

Defra says the major part of its estimated cost of H5N1 vaccination comes from the costs involved in the testing of bloods and swabs at VLA Weybridge. the Ranger reports that the estimated cost includes checks on biosecurity, licensing movements and enforcement by the State Veterinary Service."These are all requirements under the EUs AI Directive."
Private vets would be required to oversee the administration of vaccination since Defra says that the SVS would not be used to vaccinate birds, even if vaccination was compulsory.
Any decision to vaccinate during a disease oAny decision to vaccinate during a disease outbreak would be "risk-based on expert advice", says Defra. See more - Yet while UK poultry keepers are being horrified by the idea of having to shoulder exorbitant costs and consequently being very reluctant to consider vaccination, here below is the EU saying of vaccination
" it appears wise to further explore this option in the EU" - and - "Member States have the possibility to submit their preventive or emergency vaccination plans to the Commission for approval on the basis of this new Directive and subsequent implementation, and apply vaccination using the broader framework that is foreseen in the new legislation..."

October 13 2006 ~"... using vaccination as an additional HPAI H5N1 prevention and control tool, it appears wise to further explore this option in the EU.."

DISCUSSION PAPER VACCINATION OF POULTRY AGAINST HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA H5N1 (DIVA STRATEGY)
"..... Despite the constraints that make it difficult to properly assess the risks and the benefits of using vaccination as an additional HPAI H5N1 prevention and control tool, it appears wise to further explore this option in the EU, taking also into account the valuable experience gained in recent years in Italy, where following the major outbreak of HPAI of 1999/2000², a DIVA vaccination strategy has been developed and implemented in certain areas at risk of introduction of avian influenza viruses, which are located in the Po valley, in Lombardy and Veneto. Further experience has also been recently gained in France and the NL, which have implemented vaccination of poultry in the framework of the new AI control Directive 2005/94/EC. This document is aimed at providing guidance on the possible use of vaccination against HPAI H5N1 in domestic poultry or other captive birds in the current EU Member States in the second half of 2006^3...

....Although Directive 2005/94/EC shall be only transposed and implemented by the Member States into national legislation by 1 July 2007, it entered into force on 3 February 2006. Hence from this date, Member States have the possibility to submit their preventive or emergency vaccination plans to the Commission for approval on the basis of this new Directive and subsequent implementation, and apply vaccination using the broader framework that is foreseen in the new legislation, see also Annex II. ."
Read in full http://ec.europa.eu or as HTML here.

October 5 2006 ~ Scientists Work on Nasal Spray to Stop Flu

zaman.com "British scientists at the University of Warwick released news of work to develop a nasal spray in the next five years that will offer immediate protection against the flu. With continuous tests on animals at this stage, scientists hope to have a nasal spray that can stop any strains of the flu, including the H5N1 strain. With this nasal spray, it will be possible to stop getting colds, achy joints, and similar symptoms of the flu, said the scientists..."

September 2006 ~ Pharmaceutical company Intervet will supply the UK with ten million doses of avian influenza vaccine, following a tendering process announced by Defra in July.

DEFRA website "The vaccine can be used against both H5 and H7 strains of the virus and could be used i n poultry and other captive birds if a risk assessment and scientific evidence indicates it would help prevent disease spread.
The UK's policy on vaccination remains unchanged. Due to uncertainties in the future nature and spread of the virus, this supply is part of sensible contingency planning. Defra would not use currently available vaccines in advance of an outbreak or as an immediate disease control response. Early reporting, rapid action, biosecurity, culling and surveillance remain the most effective methods of protecting against and controlling an avian influenza outbreak...."

September 2006 ~ eGene Successfully Completes Study of Rapid Detection of H5N1 Avian Flu Strain

"eGenes application study demonstrated that its HDA-GT12 Genetic Analyzer can detect H5N1 avian influenza to as few as 10 viral RNA copies. The purpose of the study was to analyze the viability of developing a rapid, sensitive, and low-cost mass screening approach to detect the H5N1 influenza virus using a single-step RT-PCR and automated HDA-GT12 system. ..... The system can also be used as a portable H5N1 avian influenza detection tool in field operations, since collected digital data and analyzed results can be stored and transferred in electronic format.
The Genome Institute of Singapore provided the H5N1 avian influenza primers for the study." See http://www.genengnews.com/news/bnitem.aspx?name=6065736

September 2006 ~ Live H5N1 Avian Flu Virus Vaccines Show Protection in Animal Studies

The US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) "...When tested in mice and ferrets, experimental vaccines based on live, weakened versions of different strains of the H5N1 avian influenza virus were well-tolerated and protected the animals from a deadly infection with naturally occurring H5N1 flu viruses. The findings, which appear in the September 12 issue of PLoS Medicine, are also encouraging, the researchers say, because they demonstrate the ability to create a vaccine based on one particular strain of the H5N1 flu virus that could potentially protect against different emerging H5N1 flu strains."

September 2006 ~ a senior World Health Organisation official said the threat from the H5N1 avian flu virus is just as real today as it was six months ago

A bird flu pandemic among humans could cost the global economy up to $US2 trillion (£1.06 trillion), the World Bank has said. This sharply raises earlier estimates.
The Australian says,
".... The comments came as a senior World Health Organisation official said the threat from the H5N1 avian flu virus was just as real today as it was six months ago, even if the headlines were not as scary.
Jim Adams, vice-president for East Asia and the Pacific and head of the Bank's avian flu taskforce, said a severe pandemic could cost more than three per cent of the global economy's gross national product...."

August 25 2006 ~ Indonesia needs $120 million

Reuters reports that the World Bank said on Wednesday Indonesia needs $120 million to carry out proper vaccination and to give adequate compensation to farmers whose poultry is culled. The World Bank has urged the Indonesian government to increase its budget for the bird flu programme, saying the virus was a severe threat to the country's economy and the health of its people.

August 6 2006 ~ Thailand -H5N1 virus detected among chicken in Nakhon Phanom

The Nation "Some 300,000 chicken in Nakhon Phanom will be culled Sunday after the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus has been detected there, caretaker Deputy Agriculture Minister Adisorn Piengket announced. Adisorn told a press conference in Khon Kaen Sunday that lab tests confirmed that the strain of bird flu virus was detected in some of 2,200 chicken died in the farms in Nakhon Phanom last week. As a result, the ministry ordered the culling of 300,000 chickens in 78 farms there."

July 29 2006 ~ "Even in areas with significant outbreaks in poultry, virus prevalence in wild birds is low

and the role of these wild birds in spreading the disease is unclear. It is clear that the H5N1 problem originated from outbreaks in poultry and that the outbreaks and their geographical spread probably cannot be stopped without implementation of proper control measures in the global poultry industry." This extract from "Global Patterns of Influenza - a virus in wild birds" Science, 21 April 2006 is used to introduce the third section of the important report by Caroline Lucas MEP (here as a pdf document) entitled The Role of Intensive Poultry Farming and International Trade in the Spread of Avian Flu

July 29 2006 ~ Avian Flu - "Mild in the Wild, Benign in the Backyard, Fatal in the Factory."

As the Vice President of the European Parliament's Temporary Committee of Inquiry into the handling of Foot and Mouth, Dr Lucas witnessed at first hand " the extraordinary devastation that was wrought on the British countryside by this government's failure to consider vaccination. It is vital that the lessons of this experience are learnt, and that adequate supplies of vaccine are made available". But her report goes further. It examines the root causes of high pathogenic bird flu and makes serious and timely recommendations. . Extract from Dr Lucas' report:
".. .. The Government's Chief Scientist, Professor Sir David King, the man whose presided over the Government's rejection of vaccination during the Foot and Mouth outbreak of 2001, is already looking at a future for poultry where the official response would mean that "organic and free-range farming would come to an end. It would change farming practices."
The vaccination and quarantining of poultry is an important protection, especially for free range and organic poultry. However, it can never be a long-term solution for the intensive chicken sector, since they are too prone to becoming "viral factories," and risk becoming the route for H5N1 to mutate and hence spread resistance to available vaccines. .
.....it would appear that chickens are shipped from Europe, used for breeding in Thailand, then cooked chicken is sent back again to Europe.
And this from a country that is Asia's biggest producer of poultry and poultry feed for exports. Day old chicks, exported to Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, are already thought to have brought avian flu to these countries. ..." The Role of Intensive Poultry Farming and International Trade in the Spread of Avian Flu (new window) .
Once loaded, (apologies for the size of the file) the report can be very easily printed out and read in full..

24 July 2006 - A strain of bird flu has been found in chickens in Thailand.

Reuters "Officials said the H5 virus was detected on a farm in the northern province of Pichit, one of seven "red zone" provinces where surveillance was stepped up this month, and test results were expected in a few days. If H5N1 is confirmed, it would be Thailand's first confirmed outbreak of the virus in nearly nine months..."

21 July 2006 - "A truly rational government would acknowledge that preventive vaccination is the most effective method of combating AI (avian flu) in the modern world..

and would now be preparing to vaccinate all outdoor and organic flocks."..
Reuters reports
".... "Bio-security measures are an essential element of any strategy but the slaughter element is as outdated as British imperialism," the Elm Farm Research Centre said in a report. "A truly rational government would acknowledge that preventive vaccination is the most effective method of combating AI (avian flu) in the modern world and would now be preparing to vaccinate all outdoor and organic flocks," the report added."....... Britain currently plans to house all birds for a limited period in areas where the bird flu virus has been found and slaughter affected flocks. If the disease became endemic in an area, flocks could be kept indoors indefinitely.
"This is an apparent willingness amongst politicians and officials to ignore animal welfare by permanently housing outdoor birds thereby destroying the free-range and organic markets in an attempt to maintain an outmoded disease free status for the nation," the report said...."
However, to the surprise and dismay of many, the Soil Association has "... distanced itself from the report, issuing a statement supporting "strategic" but "not preventative" use of vaccination. " - perhaps forgetting, like the politicians and officials, that keeping free range birds under nets for protracted periods is impossible for many owners and causes deep distress for birds that are so kept. As Joanna Blythe in the Guardian wrote in June "Unless the vaccination lobby prevails.... then consumers may lose the option of choosing more ethical and humane outdoor-reared poultry products" See also below.

July 11/12 2006 ~ EU health chief "surprised" at Spain bird flu case

Reuters says, "Spain's first case of H5N1 bird flu came as a surprise to European Commission experts who want to learn more about its origin, EU Health and Consumer Protection Commissioner Markos Kyprianou said on Tuesday. ..."...we had been looking more at the spring migration," Kyprianou said. "From an epidemiological point of view, we would like to know more about this case."
Commission experts had viewed Spain as a risk country for bird flu due to its proximity to Africa and had warned of large-scale bird movements in springtime when new species might cross over into mainland Europe. This largely failed to happen. .....
Conservation group Birdlife International has said the dead bird could have spent the winter in a part of the Mediterranean affected by bird flu, rather than having migrated from Africa. .."

July 11 2006 ~"At all costs, in combating H5N1, we must avoid the vaccine-free zone that the catastrophic 2001 foot and mouth outbreak became.." Lawrence Woodward

Avian Flu and the vaccination issue - A House of Commons Reception on 19th July
Elm Farm and its Research Centre - familiar to many warmwell readers - will be presenting a report at the reception at the House of Commons next Wednesday (19th July 2006 4 p.m. to 6 p.m) sponsored by the MP for Newbury, Richard Benyon. Their report - Vaccination Nation? - is a study of the arguments surrounding the use of preventive vaccination for the control of H5N1 avian flu in poultry
To attend - or merely to find out more information - you are invited to contact Elm Farm. Email Pam.t@efrc.com with name and your full postal address in order to request a personalised invitation. (These are required for HoC security.) The page of Background information should, we feel, be read in full. Extract:
"At all costs, in combating H5N1, we must avoid the vaccine-free zone that the catastrophic 2001 foot and mouth outbreak became," says Elm Farm Research Centre's Director Lawrence Woodward. "We must show that we have all learned the lesson that planned, timely, preventive vaccination is the scientifically proven, politically acceptable route for controlling such serious diseases."
( Elm Farm Research Centre is the UK's leading organic farming research and advisory body based near Newbury in Berkshire. It is grateful for the help it has received from like-minded farming and poultry organisations in the preparation of the report).

July 10 2006 ~ H5N1 vaccination plan "None of the stakeholders dissented"

We reproduce, with permission, an article (pdf) in the Ranger which is the official magazine of the British Free Range Egg Producers Association. The title: "Bird flu threat - housing flocks not always an option. DEFRA urged to put in place vaccine plan."
Extract:
"Small scale poultry keepers have joined forces to lobby Defra for the establishment of a preventive vaccination policy for avian influenza.
The 14-strong group of organisations - including the British Waterfowl Association, the Poultry Club of GB and the Henkeepers Association - is urging the government to put in place a plan now in case vaccination is deemed necessary in the future.
"What bird keepers want is a policy. We are not asking for vaccination now," says Dr Chris Ashton of the British Waterfowl Association. "But our organisations are poorly represented at meetings with Defra and not in a significant proportion when faced with the demands of the commercial poultry industry."......
Defra confirmed at the meeting that it currently holds no vaccine bank. "
The html file of the whole article may be read here.

July 10 2006 ~ PowderMed's DNA vaccine against avian flu tested in animals, "stops the infection entirely"

In the Guardian report by its science correspondent, Ian Sample, about the H5N1 vaccine, made by PowderMed, that is ready for human testing, we read that the DNA vaccine has been entirely successful in animals.
"Our tests have shown that it stops the infection entirely, to the point that we can't even measure the virus in the animals afterwards," said John Beadle, chief medical officer of the Oxford-based company PowderMed......The company has listed details of the trial on the government's website, Clinicaltrials.gov where it states it is seeking 75 volunteers for the trial at Guy's drug research unit in London..."
(PowderMed's development facility is located in the former PowderJect development laboratories in Oxford. It will be remembered that PowderJect has been in the news in the past. Mr Blair ran into a cronyism row over the initial £32 million contract awarded without normal tendering to Powderject, formerly run by the Labour donor Paul Drayson. See report about smallpox vaccine.)

July 8 2006 ~Danish authorities have ordered thousands of ducks and pheasants culled at a breeding farm for wild birds

"The Danish Veterinary and Food Administration (DVFA) said the strain was the H5 virus. Unlike H5N1, the H5 strain is not viewed as potentially lethal to humans but the culling was a precautionary measure, said the agency." www.businessday.co.za
(A precautionary measure - but not for the unfortunate thousands of birds.)

July 8 2006 ~ Spanish case. Bird Life International says "we hope that ornithologists will be allowed to examine the corpse "

"The one thing that we can be sure of is that this grebe is very, very unlikely to be a migrant from sub-Saharan Africa." Dr Richard Thomas, BirdLife International "Too often, invaluable information as to the source of the virus in wild birds has been wasted because appropriate experts have not been called in."
......Young grebes will only just have fledged and Great Crested Grebes are not migrating in early July. Indeed, birds in northern Spain are regarded as sedentary. However, some reports indicate the corpse was found 6 weeks ago: if true, then the bird must have died sometime in May. "Perhaps the most likely explanation is that it was one of the scattering of wild birds killed by H5N1 this spring in Europe - possibly a bird that wintered in an affected part of the Mediterranean," Thomas added. .."
Was the dead bird found six weeks ago? As the ProMed moderator says, "For one such report, attributed to Reuters, see <http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/first-bird-flu-case-reported-on-spanish-radio/2006/07/07/1152240486843.html> It is quite strange that this key detail has been omitted from most media versions of the report, as it totally alters the epidemiological interpretation of the event, as stated above. - Mod.JW]

July 7 2006 ~ A case of H5N1 in Spain - the bird was "found about six weeks ago"

A wild great crested grebe, found in the north of Spain, has been confirmed by the Spanish reference laboratory to be the country's first case of H5N1. See Reuters.
It will be interesting to see if the Recombinomics site (a site that appears anxious to prove that H5N1 is spread mainly by migratory birds) is right in saying that the bird was found six weeks ago. Their comments include:
".....A great crested grebe is a migratory waterbird. ... the dead bird had been found about six weeks ago near the northern city of Vitoria.
.......The delay of six weeks in the confirmation of the H5N1 raises serious transparency issues. .."

July 7 2006 ~ " It would be interesting to obtain expert analysis of the possible contribution to this improvement of the mass vaccination policy implemented "

Commenting of the latest FAO avian influenza update by Joseph Domenech (See H5N1 page) the ProMed moderator (AS) says,
".....2 subjects seem to deserve special attention: First, the worldwide decreased prevalence of the disease since April 2006. It remains to be seen if this is a repeated seasonal decrease, as observed also in 2004 and 2005, or an indication of the pandemic having peaked. .."
A 2nd point of interest is the improvement in the Vietnamese situation, both on the public- as well as animal-health fronts....... It would be interesting to obtain expert analysis of the possible contribution to this improvement of the mass vaccination policy implemented "
We read in the FAO report that in Vietnam ".... A total of 117.9 million doses of vaccines have been used. Post-vaccination surveillance has been implemented. Except for the finding during the border control, there has been no new case reported since the last case which was detected in Cao Bang on 17 Dec 2005."

July 6 2006 ~FAO/AIDE update on Avian Influenza, No 40 edited on ProMed

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/promed/f?p=2400:1001:3174806389543297906::NO::F2400_P1001_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,33450

July 2 2006 ~ China has suffered a new outbreak of the H5N1 strain of bird flu in poultry

Taipei Times "... experts were trying to determine whether a Chinese man died of the disease in 2003, two years before the country reported any human cases. The new outbreak was found near Zhongwei, a city in the Ningxia region, the official Xinhua news agency said, citing the Agriculture Ministry. It didn't say how many or what type of birds were affected. Ministry experts were sent to the area "to control any possible outbreak" and local authorities were disinfecting vehicles and people traveling into and out of the area, Xinhua said. China has reported more than 30 bird flu outbreaks in poultry since last October. ....

June 29 2006 ~ China health ministry to verify H5N1 human case in 2003

Reuters "China's health ministry is running tests to verify findings by eight Chinese scientists that a man who died in late 2003 contracted the H5N1 bird flu virus, the World Health Organisation said on Thursday. ..... The 24-year-old man exhibited clinical symptoms of SARS when he was admitted to hospital but tested negative for that. His virus samples genetically resembled H5N1 viruses taken from Chinese chickens in various provinces in 2004, the eight experts said."

June 24 2006 ~ VLA accidents

The Mirror excitedly reports that two women who work as technicians at the avian biology section of the Veterinary Laboratories Agency both, at different times within eight days, have had accidents involving H5N1. They pricked ("slashed" says the Mirror) themselves with needles ("blood-stained needles" says the Mirror.) Kept in isolation for ten days at their houses, they then go back to work. It is surprising that the Mirror report implies that this is a virus that can be spread between people. Do they have information that we don't?
".....Bird flu expert Clifford Warwick said yesterday the virus could flare up months after infection. He said: "H5N1 can go undetected in the body for years. Stress such as surgery could lower a person's immune system and allow the dormant virus to take hold. The disease would then be strong enough to get into red blood cells and could be passed through the air, in the breath or sneezes." ..."
(Clifford Warwick is, in fact, a reptile expert.)

June 23 2006 ~ WHO believes limited human-to-human transmission of the bird flu virus did occur in an Indonesian family in May.

The BBC reports that the World Healh Organisation also said that the incident did not signal a major change in the spread of the disease. The WHO made its announcement at the end of a three-day bird flu conference in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta.

June 23 2006 ~ "the media's worldwide neglect of the issue"

From the useful site by the Canadian Crawford Kilian. He is referring to the lack of coverage of outbreaks among birds.
"BBC News has almost nothing. MSNBC is so far behind, I'm thinking of dropping it from the list as a waste of your time and mine. Global Pandemic News, a New Zealand site, doesn't seem able to pick up much. NewsNow is fairly good, but many of its posts are redundant. Other items appear on NewsNow only thanks to a passing mention of bird flu in an irrelevant article. Reuters, usually up to date and highly reliable, has gone into a doze. Xinhuanet's avian-flu site is embarrassingly obsolete and much harder to navigate than it used to be. .."
Although Mr Kilian is, at present, on a well earned short holiday, his site may prove a mine of information.

June 21 2006 ~ Intervet has developed a prototype for a new generation dual vaccine against both avian influenza and Newcastle Disease which can be mass applied by spraying

instead of injecting. It can also be used on large numbers of birds as an efficient marker vaccine to help differentiate between infected and vaccinated birds. The new vaccine will be given field trials "next year" (press release here).
One must assume that DEFRA, in its desire to reflect the current status of scientific understanding in its planning to protect against avian influenza, is aware of such developments.
All the "protection" we ever seem to hear about, however, is killing.
In its six page 34th Report of Session 2005-06, the "Merits of Statutory Instruments Committee" refers to Statutory Instrument SI 2006/1200 which allows ventilation shutdown and quotes from its "Explanatory Note" that "VSD" (sic)
" will kill birds over a period of 30-60 minutes"
It will take some birds an hour to die?
"VSD" as it is eerily called, was hastily prepared and passed - because
"the Department saw the need to breach the 21-day rule because of an outbreak of avian influenza in the most densely poultry-populated part of England, which meant that VSD had to be available without delay "to enable a rapid cull if necessary"....."
It strikes us as extraordinary that such a killing method can be made permissible within a day while effective state-of-the-art means to avoid mass culling can languish literally for years. As we have pointed out over and over again, both vaccination and on-site rapid diagnostic kits were available but ignored by the UK in the FMD crisis of 2001 - yet were shown to be wholly effective in Uruguay's own foot and mouth outbreak. More than five years seems a long time to wait for the emergence of a more science-based, independently reviewed and ethical set of animal health policies in Britain.

June 21 2006 ~ "..the inspector general said USDA relies too heavily on voluntary state and commercial programs to monitor and test domestic and wild birds"

Reuters "The United States does not have adequate measures in place to survey and monitor for avian influenza, including the deadly H5N1 strain that has killed 130 people overseas, the Agriculture Department's inspector general said on Tuesday. In a 38-page report, the inspector general said USDA relies too heavily on voluntary state and commercial programs to monitor and test domestic and wild birds.
The voluntary reporting makes it difficult for USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service to draw conclusions, know how much surveillance is taking place in different states and uncover changes in the disease such as rate of prevalence. ...........APHIS officials later told the inspector general that the agency had only recently received adequate funding to bolster its surveillance program and was working to increase monitoring in areas where it was needed most. The review of the department's avian influenza response plan was conducted before late December when USDA received $91 million in supplemental funding from Congress with much of it going toward its surveillance program.
"Since that time we've been working to ensure that we've been using those funds for the most critical aspects of avian influenza surveillance and emergency preparedness and response," said Karen Eggert, an APHIS spokeswoman.

June 20 2006 ~ "downplaying concerns about cross-species transmission of the virus."

"A case of cat infection by the H5N1 strain of bird flu has been detected in Indonesia, a World Health Organization medical officer in Jakarta said Monday. "We have evidence of one cat in Indonesia that has already been infected by this virus," said Steven Bjorge, medical officer for the WHO's Communicable Disease Section. Bjorge, speaking in a panel discussion at the Jakarta Foreign Correspondents' Club, said he thinks the cat "was infected probably by eating contaminated birds. This is a very rare disease. It's extremely difficult for this virus to be passed on to humans," he said, downplaying concerns about cross-species transmission of the virus. There are no recorded cases of cat-to-human H5N1 infection anywhere in the world..." http://www.thanhniennews.com/healthy/?catid=8&newsid=16784

June 19 2006 ~ "ventilation shutdown"

No one has defended the mass suffocation of hens, euphemistically called "ventilation shutdown" in response to the request below. This authorisation to carry out mass suffocation was very quietly introduced over the May Bank Holiday. Closing the air vents in poultry sheds and shutting off the ventilation system would undoubtedly lead to a situation one can hardly bear even to contemplate. If the birds are infected the virus would, in the ensuing panic, be spread by faeces and blood that would then put the human cleaners at risk. If the birds were not infected with high pathogenicity virus (as they were not in Norfolk) then such killing is not only barbaric but unnecessary.
An early day motion ( 2314 David Taylor) was laid in parliament in early May by Conservative MPs - including party leader David Cameron and agriculture spokesman Jim Paice - demanding that the new provision for "ventilation shutdown" in poultry houses be annulled. As James Paice said, " It flies in the face of anything to do with animal welfare and is totally unacceptable."
We should be most grateful for any information about the progress of this EDM.

June 16 2006 ~ "only Britain and the German and Japanese Red Cross societies have come through with contributions."

"The international Red Cross says it has received only small change toward its $19.2 million bird flu appeal. The world's largest disaster relief agency says donors' meagre response limits its plan to boost its defences against bird flu by training 50,000 volunteers, especially in rural areas....." ABC Finance News

June 16 2006 ~ A consortium of veterinary virologists will share samples of the H5N1 with researchers worldwide

The world expert, Dr Ilaria Capua and her colleagues from the scientific committee of the World Organization of Animal Health/UN Food and Agriculture Organization Network of Expertise on Avian Influenza, say they will do this in collaboration with the US National Institutes of Health. In their letter to Science, they invite other veterinary researchers to join their initiative. (See warmwell's Bird Flu page for early March in which we reported Dr Capua's plea that researchers don't have the right to restrict access to data, and ProMed's support for her proposal. )
It is encouraging that Dr Ian Brown, from the VLA at Weybridge, has signed the letter to Science which concludes; "We are convinced that this initiative will contribute substantially to the efforts that are being carried out worldwide, and we invite other medical and veterinary virologists to join us. "

June 16 2006 ~ "If this risk were real, we would have had reports (plural) from Europe of infected domestic cats..."

In its thread "AVIAN INFLUENZA, POULTRY VS MIGRATORY BIRDS (28)" a ProMed moderator comments on a story from San Francisco Chronicle by Bernadette Tansey which - rather in the manner of the FSA and Valerie Elliott below - draws dramatic attention to a hypothetical risk for which there is little or no evidence. In this case, the journalist has followed the somewhat wild speculation of someone from the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine that cats who happened to come across H5N1 infected birds, if the virus happenend to reach America, might, if they were to eat such birds, bring it into the house.
"So far, most experts think the risk is very low that pets could pass the disease to humans. But they can't say for sure."
The placing of the last sentence on its own of course gives it an added significance. So it is reassuring to see from such a respected moderator as MHJ the drily worded comment: " It is clear that the UC Davis faculty found a ready listener in Ms Tansey and it is now summertime...."

June 15 2006 ~ "Killing capacity has been progressively increased over the last two years" says Mr Bradshaw. Methods of mass extermination include the maceration of day old chicks and the euphemistically termed "ventilation shutdown"

Bill Wiggin asked "what the agreed levels of poultry culling capability are; when these levels were agreed; what methods of poultry culling have been agreed; and what the poultry culling capacity was in each month since January 2001.(Hansard) Mr Bradshaw's reply
"There are no formally agreed levels of poultry culling capability. However, there are a range of culling methods available to the state veterinary service.
These include maceration (for day old chicks only), lethal injection, neck dislocation, percussion killers, gassing in containers, whole house gassing and, as a last resort when no other method is practicable, ventilation shutdown.
Killing capacity has been progressively increased over the last two years through the establishment of contingency contracts with catchers and equipment suppliers. Capacity has been further increased since January 2006 through the development of a system based on the gassing of poultry in containers using a mixture of argon and carbon dioxide; the Department has commissioned 50 of these units, each capable of killing 2,000 chickens per hour. In addition, we have purchased a number of percussion killers for use on larger birds and plan to further increase our capability to gas poultry in their sheds.
However, it is not possible to state the total killing capacity per month because this figure depends on a variety of factors. These include the age and species of poultry, the housing system, the size, location, quantity and geographic spread of the affected holdings, and the availability of catchers, gas and resources.".(Hansard)
One can hardly believe what one is reading. We have both vaccination that works and the ability rapidly to detect where the virus is and where it is not - but modern methods are ignored and instead we are looking at preparations for mass extermination that would include methods not even recognised for disease control by the OIE guidelines..
We want to hear from anyone who truly believes these "contingency contracts" are ethical and would, without comment, publish their view.

June 8 2006 ~"Unless the vaccination lobby prevails.... then consumers may lose the option of choosing more ethical and humane outdoor-reared poultry products"

"Multiple cracks are beginning to show in the supposed scientific consensus on the origins of avian flu..." If anyone missed the article by Joanna Blythe in yesterday's Guardian, it opens on the Guardian website, here. Extract:
"... ..... The Washington Post has reported that as recently as the late 90s, in an unsuccessful attempt to keep the lid on less virulent strains of bird flu, intensive poultry farms in China were using, with the full approval of their government, an anti-viral drug called Amantadine. This drug is intended for humans and its use to treat birds would be a violation of international poultry regulations. Such misuse could have caused the avian flu virus to evolve into the drug-resistant H5N1 strain.
.... In Britain, this February, the day after the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) minister Ben Bradshaw assured the public that the British poultry industry was "very well prepared" for avian flu and had "extremely high levels of biosecurity", the animal welfare organisation Animal Aid photographed tonnes of poultry-shed waste containing body parts and feathers that had been dumped on farm land in West Yorkshire. ....
When H5N1 turned up in a remote village in eastern Turkey in January, this was initially blamed on migratory birds. Then when villagers gave their side of the story, it emerged that their diseased birds were intimately connected with a large factory farm nearby. ....
Worldwide, intensive poultry production has exploded and this growth seems to be mirrored by an increase in avian flu. In the south-east Asian countries where most of the H5N1 outbreaks are concentrated - Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam - production has jumped eightfold in just three decades as cheap chicken meat has become an international commodity. Conversely, certain other countries in Asia, such as Laos, have experienced relatively few bird flu outbreaks. In Laos, H5N1 has been restricted mainly to the country's few factory farms.
.... Despite all the evidence now emerging that wild birds may not be the prime carrier of H5N1, governments are panicking.....
..... Unless the vaccination lobby prevails - and going on Britain's track record with foot and mouth disease, the odds are not promising - then consumers may lose the option of choosing more ethical and humane outdoor-reared poultry products...."
ProMed's thread "Avian Influenza, poultry v. migratory birds" now has 27 entries. See the latest entry which quotes the Financial Express: Industry caused the flu; why blame wild birds? It would seem that the voices of Bird International and Grain (see warmwell's H5N1 pages) are beginning to be heard and amplified.

June 8 2006 ~ Charoen Pokphand "source of a bird flu outbreak" - the protein-rich chicken feathers were recycled to make chicken feed; the innards of the chickens were recycled into fish feed.. company dominates the feed industry."

According to the Financial Express article quoted in the latest ProMed report on "Avian Influenza, poultry v. migratory birds" we read
"...In September 2004, Cambodian authorities noted that the source of a bird flu outbreak was chicks supplied by the Thai company, Charoen Pokphand. This company dominates the feed industry and is the biggest supplier of chicks to China, Indonesia, Viet Nam and Turkey, which have witnessed bird flu outbreaks. Ukraine, where bird flu occurred, imported 12 million live birds in 2004."
The ProMed moderator (see ProMed website) notes that "Vertical integration was highly developed at Charoen Pokphand; reportedly, nothing went to waste at the group companies. For instance, the protein-rich chicken feathers were recycled to make chicken feed; the innards of the chickens were recycled into fish feed; and the carcasses of chickens were fed to crocodiles on the group's crocodile farms"
The moderator gives a link to a profile of the company, adding " For a profile of Charoen Pokphand (India) that claims that their flocks are healthy, go to: http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/mp/2002/12/19/stories/2002121900900300.htm and http://icmr.icfai.org/casestudies/catalogue/Business%20Strategy2/Charoen%20Pokphand.htm "

June 6 2006 ~ "dumping manure and carcasses into ponds and having them eaten by fish possibly results in ponds that can be reservoirs for flu virus .."

Dr Martin Webster's letter to ProMed receives informed comment by two moderators:
"[Martin William's website is worth visiting for his photographs of floating poultry carcasses in a family fish pond in Indonesia. These photographs better illustrate the risk than our 3 reports on the same topic. - Mod.MHJ]
[Scholtissek & Naylor indicated in 1988: "Global developments in aquaculture -- the so-called 'Blue Revolution' -- will mean increased colocation of people, ducks and pigs". (Fish farming and influenza pandemics; Nature 331, 215).
See also "Chicken dung used to feed fish may help spread bird flu" in 20051228.3697, as well as Mod. MHJ's commentary in 20060518.1396: "...depositing poultry faeces into the pond water would put any wildfowl swimming in those waters at a real risk of becoming infected...Birds faeces repeatedly trucked in for fish food would act in the same way as a constant risk to birds flying into and out of the fish pond areas".
Situations resembling the one described in Indonesia may prevail in other countries as well. Aquaculture's potential hazard in HPAI epidemiology deserves serious consideration and attention, not red herringing the role of migratory birds in spreading the virus to longer distances. - Mod.AS]
The letter from Simon M. Shane FRCVS, PhD. MBL. dip ACPV who is apparently: ".. concerned that ProMED is being "used" by the ornithological fraternity to absolve their feathered constituency of any involvement in dissemination of H5N1 HPAI. ..." is also published but without moderator comment.

June 5 2006 ~ "severe funding shortfalls in fight against bird flu". Agencies "are being run ragged" . No coordinated effort to mobilize grant support

The Canadian Press reports today that the WHO and FAO are facing a dire funding shortfall, with little in the way of flexible money that can be used to respond to unpredictable outbreaks. Dr. David Nabarro, senior UN system co-ordinator for avian and human influenza is quoted:
"It's not just WHO and FAO . . . the whole (UN) family needs a bit of cash "They really have done poorly on the money but FAO hasn't got much. either...The system is currently not designed to easily open the hoppers. And what folks tend to say is: 'Well, WHO ought to shift money from other programs. But that's easier said than done, because none of the other programs are well funded. . . Somebody squeals, wherever you find money from..."
and Dr. Joseph Domenech, head of the FAO's animal health service, is reported as saying:
"The demands since last September have increased tremendously when the disease came into the Caucuses, Eastern Europe and the Middle East and Africa Every week it's a different pattern.... most of the time we will have a country which is suddenly facing the outbreaks and there is nothing that is pledged."
Manwhile, a Reuters article by Lesley Wroughton and Maggie Fox today reveals that a World Bank report prepared for the meeting in Vienna on June 7th shows that of the nearly $1.9 billion pledged last January by nations and organizations that said they wanted to make a "massive effort" against the virus, just $286 million has actually been spent to fight bird flu.
"... The money is supposed be used to upgrade veterinary systems, launch vaccination drives and help educate people about hygienic ways to raise animals...... The European Commission is the largest single donor, with $178 million pledged but none yet disbursed. ..."

June 4 2006 ~ "governments worldwide and in some states are recommending restrictions or closure of backyard and free-range poultry production"

"As food citizens," writes Jennifer Wilkins, Food and Society Policy Fellow at Cornell University, in the Albany Times Union,"we must think critically about what is at stake when regulators restrict how poultry can be raised. We can use purchasing power to support all farmers and keep production systems that are good for the environment and us. We need to resist losing our heads and jumping on the blame-the-wild-bird-and-roaming- chicken bandwagon.
It is vital that global and domestic regulation does not thwart backyard and pastured poultry production. Not only have these systems shown a resilience against disease, they enhance biodiversity, provide environmental and health benefits, increase food security and keep farm families on the land."

June 2 2006 ~ Rome conference - "H5N1 virus in eight African countries appeared to be poultry-related and chiefly based on trade... including illegal trade"

In spite of the headline from the FAO newsroom, scientists at the 2 day FAO/OIE bird flu conference in Rome have admitted they are unable to resolve the question of one of the key issues at the conference, which was the role of wild birds in the spread of HPAI to more than 50 countries on three continents, and whether wild birds should now be considered a permanent reservoir of the virus.
"..... If they are such a reservoir, there is a strong likelihood they will carry the virus with them in subsequent migrations. Alternately H5N1 may subside naturally as infected animals die off, or it may mutate to a less aggressive form.
... The conference noted that the current outbreaks of H5N1 virus in eight African countries appeared to be poultry-related and chiefly based on trade in poultry for human consumption, including illegal trade. However, it called for further analysis for a more complete understanding of how the virus was introduced. ............... It called for the establishment of a global tracking and monitoring facility involving all relevant institutions across the world, including scientific centres and farmers' organizations, hunters, bird watchers, and wetland and wildlife conservation societies.
The participants rejected any suggestion of trying to stop the spread of HPAI by killing wild birds. "Destruction of wild bird habitats or indiscriminate hunting of wildlife is scientifically and ethically unjustified as a response," one of the conference recommendations said."

June 1 2006 ~"It is unfair and dangerous to use wild birds as convenient scapegoats for the spread of H5N1, when the real problems lie with the intensive rearing of poultry

and the massive international trade in poultry products," commented Elena d'Andrea, CEO of the Italian Society for the Protection of Birds
"Wild birds play a major role in the functioning of the global ecosystems and are a source of inspiration to people across the planet. The mass hysteria generated by the avian influenza scare is damaging our relationship with them: people are even destroying Swallows' nests out of an irrational fear of these messengers of spring," she added.
See Gladiators strike a blow for wild birds from Bird Life International.

June 1 2006 ~ "ventilation shutdown" is not one of the methods recognised for disease control by the OIE guidelines.

We were pleased to see this press release by Compassion in World Farming, one of the few organisations to declare unequivocally that mistreating farm animals is unacceptable in any society that claims to be civilised.
CIWF says"... This method appears to breach these internationally agreed guidelines, by failing to ensure induction of unconsciousness is immediate: it also fails to avoid anxiety, pain, distress and suffering. Philip Lymbery CIWF's Chief Executive said: "Compassion in World Farming believes that death through ventilation shutdown is likely to be protracted and cause terrible suffering. 3It is possible that many birds will die in shocking circumstances, and we could be faced with scenes in which piles of dead birds culled in this fashion become a common sight - comparable to the shocking scenes at the height of the Foot and Mouth Disease crisis. " We believe that this method is potentially so inhumane that it should not be used even as a last resort."
It was encouraging too to hear the voice of French veterinarians on the You and Yours (Thursday), explaining how the precautionary principle taken to extremes is counter-productive and that hens indoors show distress (if they have space to do so) and will fight each other in desperation. Even Bob McCracken seemed to be seeing the need to allow vaccination for free range hens.

May 31 2006 ~ Wild bird role in flu 'unclear' and "an impassioned plea for the use of vaccines to control the disease in domestic poultry."

BBC today
"..International researchers are in Rome for a two-day conference to discuss the spread of avian flu.
Poultry vaccination and a greater emphasis on Africa .... called for by the delegates. ....
Dr Domenech, FAO "We have to be careful that..... all the explanations of how the virus is spreading are not placed at the swans' door. They're one part of a complicated web."
The scientists also heard an impassioned plea for the use of vaccines to control the disease in domestic poultry.
Dr Robert Webster, from St Jude's Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, said that it was absurd that vaccines were not used. "The global poultry industry is the main spreader of H5N1, but migratory birds have certainly played a role. A main issue in my mind is the use of vaccines at agricultural level to control this thing," he said. According to the chief veterinary officer of the FAO, Dr Joseph Domenech, if the disease becomes endemic on the continent, it could re-infect the rest of the world for years to come. .......
Many delegates spoke of the need for better information to help target their research. There was a growing understanding that while there was excellent research being done on the ground with wild birds, there was a lack of global perspective. "

May 30 2006 ~ H5N1 is spreading more through commercial husbandry and the humans that are moving poultry around says Juan Lubroth (FAO)

See Bloomberg
"... In Nigeria, which is on so-called migratory flyways, evidence has emerged that the virus was introduced there in February through trade in infected chicks, the FAO said. "I've been stumped by this virus for the last two years," Lubroth said. "Certain things we thought would happen didn't, and then things we didn't think would happen did." It's possible, Lubroth said, that wild birds are being infected by poultry. Several countries may be wasting resources targeting the wild fowl, said Thomas of BirdLife International... " (Read in full)

May 22 2006 ~ "The world HPAI situation will be one of the topics to be discussed during this week's 74th General annual session of the OIE in Paris (21 - 26 May 2006)

where the 165 member countries will be represented by their respective Chief Veterinary Officers. International organizations and animal-health experts will participate as well." ProMed moderator

May 6 2006 ~ "Positive data on 3 birds out of 7000 indicates the surveillance methodology was seriously flawed "

says the Recombinomics Commentary for May 5th quoting DEFRA results November 2005 - April 2006. ( DEFRA had told the WWT samplers to take fecal samples on a sterile moistened swab and to put them in dry plastic tubes before freezing. But the independent experts said the samples would need to be immersed in a saline or preservative solution before being frozen.)
" These flaws were further supported by the H7N3 outbreak in at least farms near Norwich. No H7 was detected in the surveillance samples, again highlight a high rate of false negatives.
Collection and storage flaws may have contibuted to the false negatives reported by DEFRA. However, false nagatives can be generated at many points in the collection and storage process. Countries reporting no positives in thousands of samples have serious issues....Countries testing thousands of birds and finding no avian influenza have a serious sensitivity and selection problem.
Issues of false negatives in H5N1 have been obvious since early 2004. The failure to adequately address the failed surveillance remains scandalous."

May 6 2006 ~ Mass slaughter worldwide now stands at 200 million birds

According to the latest report of the World Health Organization, by the end of April, there have been 204 cases of humans infected with AI virus H5N1, 113 of whom died. To date, over 200 million fowls have been culled. (link)

May 6 2006 ~ H5N1 "Nature..... does what she does, your opinions notwithstanding"

A report from Alertnet says that a top flu expert at a Lancet conference in Singapore this week has warned the scientific community against blaming migratory birds. Bird International's report on avian flu, as we have seen, gives a balanced argument concluding that migratory birds are highly unlikely to be spreading HPAI H5N1. However,in the Alertnet article, Christianne Bruschke (OIE) is quoted: "..... it doesn't mean it's impossible for an infected bird to fly from Africa to Europe or North America,"
After quoting the Alertnet article, ProMed moderator MHJ, (link) comments:
Obviously, to quote the British saying, "You pays your money and takes your choice." Or to put it another way, as I advise my students, "Never lie or make up data. Nature is illiterate and therefore never reads the scientific literature. Therefore she does not know what, according to the literature or Ministerial reports, she should be doing and therefore does what she does, your opinions notwithstanding." As this problem settles out, it seems to depend on how far which species of infected birds can effectively transport H5N1 while migrating. Commercial international transport of poultry probably has no such restrictions but it would be nice to have documented cases of successes and failures. In the meanwhile it would appear that H5N1 has not (yet) been brought back to Europe from West Africa."
It is for the humanity of such remarks that we find Promed so cheering and so readable as well as so informative.

May 6 2006 ~ "Virtually every government around the world is putting too little emphasis on trade and poultry" says RSPB

Associated Press article about trade in animals - both legal and illegal - and the risk of spreading H5N1.
"....BirdLife International's science policy director, agreed that illegally imported poultry and other animal products pose the most immediate risk. "It doesn't mean we have to stop monitoring wild birds," ..........
Senior Bush administration officials have said they, too, worry about the bird flu arriving through the estimated $10 billion global trade in wild animals, pets and animal parts. Hundreds of federal agents from several government agencies are policing borders, ports, airports and other places.
Graham Wynne, head of Britain's Royal Society for the Protection of Birds "Virtually every government around the world is putting too little emphasis on trade and poultry. You really can't do too much vigilance on the movement of poultry products because that's going to be the most likely route in."
Wild bird experts say the virus appears to be spreading along trade routes. They point to Africa's first cases of bird flu, which were discovered at a farm in Nigeria in February. "Most of these outbreaks have not been directly related to the migration of birds," said Lim Kim Keang, head of the Nature Society's bird group in Singapore. .."
The article should be read in full

May 5 2006 ~ Ben Bradshaw repeats his mantra - " we do not see any role for vaccination"

Ben Bradshaw yesterday: Hansard
"The vaccination of poultry offers potential benefits in disease control, but currently available vaccines are too limited to provide a general solution. Crucially, although these vaccines protect against disease, they will not prevent birds from becoming infected and shedding virus, hiding the symptoms of disease. ...... we do not see any role for vaccination."
Whoever is advising the government is ignorant of the facts (see headline below)- or else is cynically using a false but scientific-sounding argument in order to hide the merely economic one. (In 2001 such false economy led to losses of at least #8 billion) If birds are vaccinated properly they will not become infected and any (highly unlikely) shedding of virus will not be enough to infect others (Read Q and A section ) It is to be hoped that vaccination of birds will soon be recognised as a human health issue as much as an animal welfare one. Gassing trials and plans to suffocate birds (see below) are as unnecessary as they are repugnant.

May 5 2006 ~ Intervet says its inactivated vaccine "..confers protection on poultry... allows differentiation between infected and vaccinated birds..In Hong Kong vaccinated birds no longer transmitted the virus and did not turn into carriers...."

On the 9th March, Ben Bradshaw told the House of Commons in answer to a question by James Paice that Sir David King was "grossly misrepresented.... about his view of vaccination." and Mr Bradshaw read out a "statement" by Professor David King:
"that the disadvantage of using currently available vaccine significantly outweighs any potential benefits."
In response to a query about this, the DTI has now clarified David King's comments:
"My advice to Government remains that the disadvantages of using currently available vaccine significantly outweigh any potential benefits. Although the current vaccine does reduce bird mortality from the disease, it will not prevent birds from becoming infected and spreading the virus. The symptoms would be masked, making detection and eradication considerably more difficult."
Such a statement is both extraordinary and misleading. With an approved vaccine, as Intervet told us in March
"..... there are no 'silent carriers'. When our vaccine is used as recommended (2 doses 4-6 weeks apart) it prevents transmission of the disease, even with the high challenges used experimentally" In an article in Poultry World, "Lines Drawn in Vaccine Debate", Intervet's Jim Hungerford makes it clear that " use of the H5N2 inactivated vaccine confers protection on poultry but also allows differentiation between infected and vaccinated birds." (Read Q and A section )

May 5 2006 ~ Where is any evidence that "symptoms would be masked, making detection and eradication considerably more difficult"?

The free range sector's anxious voice remains unheard. Unsupported pronouncements are drowning them out. In Germany, despite anguished protests by farmers and smallholders at the continuing lock up of free range hens, Horst Seehofer remains adamant. Madness.
Warmwell recommends that concerned readers cut and paste the paragraph above to their MP, ( page opens in new window) urgently requesting that evidence that "symptoms would be masked, making detection and eradication considerably more difficult" be produced.
As we say below, the evidence provided by Freedom of Information was highly unsatisfactory. That the paper describing the Hong Kong experience was cited is absurd since both that paper and the new Chinese papers show that vaccination is effective.
( The matter is urgent. It normally takes months to produce new stocks of vaccine. The suitable antigen must be in stock before producing a batch and then quality control testing must be carried out according to European Regulations on antigen and final product. Even if production is speeded up as fast as possible it will still take several weeks to get a batch produced ready for tests. Even so, if the UK authorities can be persuaded to order vaccine now, testing of the final product could (partially) be waived.)

May 4 2006 ~ "ventilation shutdown" means suffocation and birds could take up to a day to die

"Emergency legislation" quietly introduced during the Bank Holiday, and which has amended the Welfare of Animals (Slaughter or Killing) Regulations 1995 to authority for mass culling by suffocation, is a move described by Peter Ainsworth as "barbaric".
"Issuing emergency powers on a Bank Holiday weekend is not the way to go about business and we would not support a policy of deliberate suffering that is inhumane."
Understandably, Compassion in World Farming (CIWF) and the RSPCA are protesting that such powers would be in breach of OIE standards and are demanding to know under what "exceptional circumstances" the method could be used.
Peter Bradnock, the chief executive of the British Poultry Council, said that the industry had not been consulted on the powers.
The Times says that it has learnt, however, that
"approving death by suffocation during an epidemic may be an attempt to win approval for the gassing of entire chicken houses during a virulent avian flu outbreak. "
and reveals that the gassing of the birds in Norfolk last week (when the strain of flu was particularly mild) was a "gassing trial" organised by the Scottish Executive (sic)

May 4 2006 ~ "Bird flu has been in Norfolk since mid-March

but was undetected for almost six weeks, a government report revealed yesterday." Experts have been unable to establish a link between the outbreaks at the three farms affected. It should not be forgotten that H7N3 is a mild strain of bird flu.
EDP24 reports that a study released by 137"target=new> EDP24 reports that a study released by Defra found that the H7N3 virus took hold on a free-range farm at North Tuddenham, near Dereham, on March 20 and appeared on a second farm 11 days later. That the vet at the "free-range" farm had put deaths down to a power failure is significant. Although very large farms can be technically described as "free-range" such a description that can be misleading
"Deaths were at double and triple the normal rate among the 15,500 chickens at the Norwich Road and Mowles Manor farms..... there was evidence of cannibalism and low egg production. .....symptoms continued and were not reported to Defra until April 27, a day after the outbreak at Whitford Lodge Farm, North Tuddenham, was confirmed."
Why the Scottish Executive was then involved in the swift organisation of a gassing trial is something we should be interested to have explained.

May 2 2006 ~ Free -range birds blamed for the virus that " has been present in Britain for at least a month" - but the virus involved here is a low pathogenicity virus and not the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 nor the H7N7 strain that so badly affected the Netherlands in 2003.

According to Valerie Elliott in the Times,
".... latest theory is that a free-range egg company, which kept 15,300 chickens outdoors on two farms, is now the likely source of the infection, probably after some contact with an infected wild bird..."
It is a "theory" and "likely" but there is no evidence given - and the media are not making much of a distinction between the Bird Flu false alarm in Scotland and this low risk strain with its accompanying slaughter. The Scotsman's headline today, for example, is 15,000 chickens culled to stem bird flu as if the strain were dangerous. As ProMed points out, the strain in Norfolk is very different from the " highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, A/H7N7, that affected chickens in the Netherlands, Belgium and a small part of Germany in 2003 .." If a small, unfunded website can understand the difference it seems unfortunate that the mainstream news sources imply that Norfolk is dealing with a dangerous virus.

May 2 2006 ~ No surveillance in the UK picked up what blood samples now show - that the birds were exposed to the H7N3 virus as long as four weeks ago.

50,000 birds have now been killed in Norfolk because of this low pathogenic virus - even though
"Birds on the free range unit suffered only a mild form of the flu and none died from the infection."
On intensive commercial units however, as Valerie Elliott points out in the Times, "where there are large numbers of birds who live indoors at close quarters" it was understandable that 400 chickens died of the virus.
The excuse given for the wholesale killing of the largely unaffected free range birds is that even H7N3 is "notifiable". However, we also read that officials at DEFRA
" are determined to ensure that the country's #600 million-a-year chicken export trade is maintained."
This leaves the free range producers out in the cold, unable to protect their flocks with vaccination and with no independent, rapid means for carrying out their own testing.

May 2 2006 ~ "The policy of restrictions on export trade when part of the livestock population is vaccinated for controlling outbreaks should be reconsidered"

The Scotsman, a propos avian influenza and without comment, reports
"Germany, the biggest importer of Dutch poultry, refuses to buy meat and eggs from vaccinated animals as consumers fear possible health risks..."
To read such an unchallenged statement in a newspaper, five years after all the battles about vaccination against FMD, is deeply depressing. It is now perfectly well known that animals vaccinated with permitted vaccines hold no risks for human health, need no special labelling and are constantly consumed without any risk at all.
As for the notion of vaccinated "carriers", this has resulted in EU foot and mouth disease regulations of such complexity that meat producers at DEFRA stakeholders' meetings continue to feel that vaccination, while it can of course be "considered", would still create a two-tier system and be a disaster for them. Yet the "vaccinated carrier" risk, as we see below, is negligible - and it is this false perception that creates a two-tier system.
A scientific acknowledgment of this would expose as unnecessary the EU regulations on animals, meat and products vaccinated against FMD. As Appendix 63 of the FAO conference on FMD in Greece (2004) says, it is real "levels of risk  not perceived risks" that
"must be considered when developing regulations and guidelines for the international movement and trade in animals and animal products. It must also be the most important consideration when deciding on the various options to deal with an outbreak.."
In the paper's recommendations:
"Considering that the risk posed by vaccinated carriers is extremely low and considering the levels of risks that Europe of illegally and illegally imported meat has accepted, the policy of restrictions on export trade when part of the livestock population is vaccinated for controlling outbreaks should be reconsidered..." Read full extract
It is disturbing that it is the regulations themselves that are regarded as sufficiently set in stone to preclude any challenge. As far as we know, the scientific basis of these regulations is still not being re-evaluated.

May 1 2006 ~ Bird Flu restrictions are lifted in Scotland and the Netherlands

See the Guardian and The Scotsman reports: "10km Wild Bird Surveillance Zone, which required the housing of poultry and a ban on live bird movements, was lifted after midnight. The wider Wild Bird Risk Area was lifted at the same time..."
Free range poultry can therefore now be allowed out in Scotland.
The Norfolk strain is, unlike the Cellardyke H5N1 scare, a low pathogenic H7 strain, a risk to humans described as "extremely low". Even so, the birds - including two free -range flocks - are being killed and restrictions are now in operation for the 1km area around the affected sites in Norfolk. For details see BBC.
The Netherlands also lifted its order shielding domestic poultry from contact with wild birds today.

April 30 2006 ~ The hens are killed in gas chambers of argon gas or else shot with a stun gun.

EDP24's Nick Heath gave the grisly details of what culling entails on Friday.
".... the shrouded figures prepared the chickens for the cull and took more blood samples from the flock......bulging yellow sacks of carcasses which were driven away to be rendered or incinerated off-site..."
The exploitation by man of factory farmed animals to provide cheap food is kept - "like wrongs hushed up" - hidden behind locked gates and doors. Even so, a growing number of people in the UK do now feel revulsion for the conditions of such "farms" and distaste for the product. More and more hens now lead less exploited lives. Although these hens are kept for their eggs and for the food they provide, small free-range producers and householders are willing to carry out their side of an unwritten contract, giving them a reasonably natural life in return. Yet these decent people are powerless to protect their birds because vaccination is refused by big business who see only cheap protein and by a government that appears not to understand how science and technology have moved on since the Dark Ages. A sense of deja-vu, as Patrick Holden said, is inevitable.

April 30 2006 ~ Two more farms infected with H7. Japan has banned poultry imports from Britain and no one knows which the index case is..

The two new farms infected with H7 in Norfolk have 15,300 more birds, called "free-range". These will be killed and a one-kilometre "restrictive zone" - limiting movements of poultry, eggs and poultry products - has been imposed around all three infected farms. Geoffrey Lean in the Independent says that the fact that no one know which is the index case shows how ineffectual the surveillance has been.
"Ministers and officials who boasted that Britain was "probably better prepared than any other nation" through "surveillance" and "early action" are facing the possibility of another foot-and-mouth style fiasco. Dr Reynolds admits the surveillance - testing wild birds for flu - failed to find any carrying the virus affecting the farms, despite the greatest bird flu monitoring exercise ever carried out in Britain. .."
Yet again, we point out that the official refusal to contemplate the use of available on-site rapid diagnostic technology at such a time is simply incredible. Can the UK really be holding off until they feel their home-grown model of rapid PCR diagnosis is good enough to make money?

April 29 2006 ~ " a risk to animal and human health - or a healthy pragmatism which we would do well to imitate?"

asks Miriam O'Reilly at the news that, in France, panic does NOT reign in spite of the sixty five dead wild birds that have now been found to be carriers of the H5N1 virus. Listen Again to BBC radio's Farming Today This Week.

April 29 2006 ~ Vets continued to slaughter 35,000 chickens

is a headline that we hoped never to have to write. Latest news from ITN (Saturday early) mentions the "letters ... being delivered to some 1,800 homes near to the Norfolk farm, as vets continued to slaughter 35,000 chickens... "
That the strain is low pathogenic H7N3 was announced by DEFRA on Friday but the Ministry added that
"results will need further investigations by the Veterinary Laboratories Agency (VLA) before the Chief Veterinary Officer, Debby Reynolds can rule out completely high pathogenicity."
We understand - although we should be pleased to be contradicted - that in this day of high tech and rapid diagnostic tools, the pathogenicity of the virus is determined by injecting live chicks and then watching to see how many of them die.

April 28 2006 ~ One of the Whitford Lodge workers has "Bird Flu" conjunctivitis, associated with H7

DEFRA says that although the risk is very low, the 34,000 birds are still to be killed. BBC
"Almost all human H7 infections documented so far have been associated with close contact with dead or dying poultry. ....The threat to human health posed by H7 avian influenza viruses remains very low despite the recent developments in Norfolk ."
Defra, the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, confirmed that the 34,000 birds on the infected farm will still be slaughtered, and a 1km exclusion zone will remain in place.(a good comparison between Free Range and factory farmed poultry - if any need reminding of the high price the natural world pays for our cheap food - can be found on this Compassion in World Farming page).

April 28 2006 ~ " one of the few success stories in agriculture, with 37% of UK laying birds being free-range or organic and generating burgeoning consumer support for their higher welfare standards..."

At a time when the idea of bird flu has briefly surfaced again in the conscousness of the public, we are reminded of the letter sent by the Soil Association to Mr Blair in October last year.
......pressure apparently from commercial interests and the National Farmers Union (which I know you are aware does not represent all farmers and certainly not the majority of organic farmers) persuaded ministers and officials to adopt a control strategy based on mass-culling ..."
Read letter

April 28 2006 ~ Agriculture Commissioner Fischer Boel was asked on 12 April for an SFP extension until mid-October

Excerpt from Double Whammy for English Farmers (26 April) from the Conservatives. It seems clear that Mrs Beckett has not been straight either with the farmers nor with Parliament. Meanwhile, UK farmers have been paying something like #13 million a month in interest on what they borrow to make up for the undelivered SFP payments promised - first in January, then in February, then in the middle of March and then in June..
Neil Parish is quoted:
" ..... She made no mention of this in her Ministerial Statement of 19 April. Moreover, in the debate that followed in the House on 20 April, she said: 'I do not tell the European Commission anything different from the House"......"
See also Farming Today Meanwhile, the majority of Cumbrian fell farmers, who desperately need the money, remain unpaid.

April 28 2006 ~ "up to 20% of farmers' payments are to be diverted into Rural Development Schemes."

In the same article as that above, Mr Parish said:
"Our farmers haven't even been paid for 2005 and now we have confirmation that up to 20% of their direct support is to be taken away from them...... this distorts the single market and puts English farmers at a competitive disadvantage. I seriously doubt the legality of it and at this stage I do not rule out a challenge in the European Court."

April 28 2006 ~ "600,000 birds every week"

From a report at www.eveningnews24.co.uk/ considering the provenance of the chicks at Whitford Lodge "farm" in Norfolk.
"....It emerged today that eggs from the breeder farm had been given to a hatchery in Fakenham, which DEFRA experts were investigating yesterday and which can turn out 600,000 birds every week. He added: "Everything is under control now, we have a clean bill of health and we are looking to the future. "We have great staff here with the bulldog spirit and we are going to roll our sleeves up and carry on."
The "bulldog spirit" is something one does not usually associate with the mass production and killing of sentient beings as if they were so many tins of beans, in conditions that are hidden from the public. The cheap form of protein these thousands of birds provide has little in common with the healthy looking bright-eyed bird, accompanying the BBC webpage reporting the Banham Poultry outbreak.

April 28 2006 ~ Bird Flu and Factory farming ".... infection is aerosolised and effectively spread to all or at least many others."

Interesting to read again what the virologist, Ruth Watkins, writes:
"... Indoors, any infection introduced as droppings or from an infected individual is aerosolised and effectively spread either orally or by respiratory route to all or at least many others. This starts infection like a bushfire, and the birds inside are stressed and probably less healthy and even immune depressed compared to their healthy happy free ranging counterparts.
These merely share a roost which is regularly cleaned out and do not live in a dusty atmosphere.
So far the two large outbreaks in European poultry facilities have occurred in birds kept inside..."More
The "industry" may think its bio-security better than natural conditions - but what of the condition of the unfortunate birds and their lack of immunity to disease? As Patrick Holden of the Soil Association said in response to bird flu:
" For livestock, as for humans, the best defence against disease is good health and nutrition. Building naturally healthy and resistant populations of livestock should be the long-term objective."

April 28 2006 ~ CVO assures us that mass killing is legal

'I should like you to know that I believe all killing for disease control should be done humanely in accordance with EU law'
Private Eye's Muckspreader last week on what Debby Reynolds evidently thought were reassuring words.
" It was perhaps unfortunate, however, that she went on to say that, for this, 'the Welfare of Animals (Slaughter and Killing) Regulations 1995 provides a firm legal base'. .Still at the forefront of Defra's thinking is that obsession with killing on a colossal scale which, back to salmonella and beyond, has always been the ministry's preferred answer to every animal disease problem. If bird flu was to become established in Britain, we could expect ministry vets soon to fan out across the land, ordering the slaughter of millions of birds.."
Read Muckspreader.

April 27 2006 ~ "Desperate Westcountry farmers

last night called for the resignation of the Rural Affairs Secretary Margaret Beckett - as it emerged vital farm payments due last year may not now be made until the middle of October. In an audacious move, Mrs Beckett has applied to the European Commission for permission to extend the deadline for paying #1.6 billion to English farmers until the autumn - almost a year after the payments were first due..." WMN

April 27 2006 ~ The 1st suspected case of avian influenza in a wild bird has been detected in the Free State of Saxony. Data should be being compiled, compared, and published by a central EU scientific authority says ProMed.

"The accumulating information on H5N1 in wild birds, derived from surveillance activities in various EU member-countries" says today's ProMed, "those already infected as well as those which have been fortunate to remain so far uninfected, is of obvious importance for the advancement of the knowledge about the evolving epidemiological situation. The data from different sources deserve to be compiled, compared, and published by a central EU scientific authority; ProMED-mail will be grateful for such information and glad to post its details, when available."

April 27 2006 ~ "What sort of conditions are they being raised in? Have these poor things ever seen the light of day? Have they ever enjoyed a scratch around or a dust bath?"

"Whilst down in my beloved Devon this week, writes a warmwell reader, "I purchased, some organic - free range eggs..."
"The different hens' names are written on the top of each egg...for luncheon today I am going to boil eggs kindly laid for us by Olive and Molly. I shall leave those laid and signed by Blushes and Freckles etc. to enjoy at the weekend. Fortunately the farm was very busy indeed.
Got home and learned of the 35,000 odd chickens due to be slaughtered in another uneducated slaughter. What sort of conditions are they being raised in. Have these poor things ever seen the light of day ? Have they ever enjoyed a scratch around or a dust bath ? 35,000. I bet they were crammed into one horrific shed. " Read in full
So there we are. There are some people who care about the way hens live and die just as they care about their own responsibility towards others. The intensive "poultry industry" however, so approved of by Sir David King and others and so influential in the decision not to allow vaccination, appear to see only an expendable source of protein. It is these people who can talk calmly of mass slaughter as if it were both sane and necessary. It is neither. And it would be helpful in educating the public if someone politely pointed out to the BBC that the picture of the chicken on their webpage is of a free range hen and bears no resemblance at all to the unfortunate creatures being bred for pet food at the "farm" in question.

April 27 2006 ~ 35,000 hens in Norfolk to be "slaughtered on suspicion"

DEFRA said last night, "Preliminary tests have this evening indicated that the avian influenza virus is present in samples from chickens found dead on a poultry farm near Dereham in Norfolk. Further tests are being carried out to determine the strain of the virus and more will be known tomorrow. preliminary test results show that it is likely to be the H7 strain ....."
The H7 strain of bird flu in the Netherlands in 2003 was a disaster economically - over 20 million commercial birds were killed - but also socially. Just as in the UK now, vaccination for bird flu was not allowed and this meant that free range birds, exhibition birds and pets were compulsorily slaughtered. Not one free-range bird was found to be infected during the outbreak unless it had had contact with commercial intensive farms. The misery of this resulted in the Netherlands decision and resulting EU permission to allow vaccination this year.
(We note this morning the dire prognostications of Neil Ferguson in the Guardian but the Guardian also quotes from a newly published report, "which drew on the expertise of 300 scientists from 30 countries" which claimed that new technologies to spot outbreaks of disease early would dramatically cut death rates, avert the need for mass animal cullings and save billions of pounds in battling infectious diseases.) )

April 27 2006 ~ Freedom of Information query produces very little to support Mr Bradshaw's assertion about vaccination

Under the FOI Act, a request was made for a list of the references which led the Minister and his officials to assert that "It has been a frequently recognised feature of the use of vaccine in the field that vaccinated birds can continue to allow spread of the virus, whilst not showing typical clinical signs." (see also below) While it may perhaps have been true that, in the past, it was often assumed that vaccinates could excrete small amounts of virus, and if infected before vaccination, be infected without clinical signs, it is nevertheless quite misleading to imply that therefore there are good veterinary reasons not to vaccinate.
To cite the recent paper by Ellis et al 'Vaccination of chickens against H5N1 avian influenza in the face of an outbreak interrupts virus transmission' Avian Pathology, 2004, 33(4):405412. as one reference that was supposed to support the Government's assertion, is astounding. In fact, the paper says
"after 18 days post-vaccination no more deaths from H5N1 avian influenza occurred and intensive monitoring by virus culture on these farms showed no evidence of asymptomatic shedding of the virus.."
Even if it were true that vaccinates could, if infected before vaccination, excrete small amounts of virus, this will not affect other vaccinated birds - and vaccination is carried out on ALL birds on a holding. We should be grateful for informed comments about the the information given by FOI

April 24/25 2006 ~ "The cost of sacking the wildlife officers, some of whom have been with the department for more than 20 years, has been put at between #2 million and #3 million"

See Western Morning News " ....The redundancies have been attacked as an attempt by ministers to shift responsibility for the handling of the bovine TB crisis on to farmers while allowing Defra to meet Treasury budget targets. ..."
It continues to amaze that we hear nothing at all from DEFRA about the technology that can make real progress in the eradication of bovine TB in wildlife. Is there no one with any scientific or veterinary knowledge able to talk to the policy makers? Policy, it ildlife. Is there no one with any scientific or veterinary knowledge able to talk to the policy makers? Policy, it appears, must always be driven by bureaucracy and budgets instead of by science, technology and veterinary skill. And more and more is it to be paid for by the hapless farmers. The government does not really want an untargetted mass cull of badgers - fearing, as it did not in 2001, a horrified urban outcry. When will the government recognise that the tools to avoid such a politically unpopular, ethically questionable and scientifically unnecessary move are ready and available?
An article in the Veterinary Times back in 2004 concluded that the attraction of using rapid real-time PCR is that it may be "accurate enough to distinguish the TB status of individual badgers within a sett. If a half hour test can reveal this, then the targeted cull of badgers that we propose might be refined even further. " While the research below using UK built rapid RT-PCR diagnosis in badger setts and latrines shows that we have now, at this moment, the technology that can show which badgers are infected. "we would prefer that culling is targeted at diseased and infectious animals" said the researchers - and this would indeed be possible. See also bovine TB page and the abstract of the Warwick RT-PCR work in the Royal Society "Biology Letters" in March this year.

April 24 2006 ~ Anthrax in Wales ".... I do hope that they vaccinated those cows."

Two cows have died of anthrax on a beef farm in south Wales. (See BBC and Guardian) The ProMed page should be read in full. Extract:
"....Firstly, while the major tenor of the government response is to calm fears, there is a suspicion of a present lack of experience. For example: "The small farm has been sealed off, with the remaining herd of suckler cows confined to their field while tests continue." Quarantine is routine for a limited period after vaccination, usually 14 to 21 days, but why not mention vaccination and exactly what tests on the suckler cows? Or are they attempting soil sampling? If the latter, I wish them good luck as it is much harder than many realise even with modern techniques. And I do hope that they vaccinated those cows.............we have a situation where livestock veterinarians are ignorant of the disease (not having seen much of it during their careers), which delays recognition. This is further exaggerated in the UK where far too many farmers are now too poor to regularly employ a veterinarian.
Read in full

April 24 2006 ~ Anthrax survey "... the regional Defra chiefs refused to recall the files from their archives."

The comments of the moderator at ProMed about the UK's lack of experience with anthrax and the fact that " far too many farmers" in the UK are now too poor to employ vets regularly, also reveal that about 18 months ago he
"...attempted a file review of the past 100 outbreaks in the UK. We got about 25 replies and then it dried up as the regional Defra chiefs refused to recall the files from their archives."
Just as one swallow doth not a summer make, the ProMed moderator remarks drily that "Two dozen survey docs do not an hypothesis challenge..... " Read in full

April 23/24 2006 ~ Pedigree calf, Fern, did NOT "show typical signs of bovine TB at the post mortem" There were no open lesions at all - but the press were told there were.

In spite of press coverage at the time of the calf's death, the story from his owner about the aftermath of the killing of Fern raises some very serious questions. The calf had been in isolation for 3 months after he had reacted to the test. The SVS vet, Linda Farrant SVS, had said that the reaction in a young calf meant that the infection "would have spread rapidly through his system", he must be " very diseased", so he must be dealt with " very quickly". Mrs Kremers writes:
".... Four SVS personnel searched diligently for lesions. None were found in the lungs or stomach areas.
Eventually a small, calcified abscess was found in one of the throat glands. It was not an open lesion.... it had been there some time, and this would be sent to the laboratories to be cultured, to see if it was indeed bTB. The results would be known in six weeks. (ie the results would not be available until the middle of May) Imagine my shock when the Western Morning Newspaper phoned me on the Monday .... The journalist read out a stream of sentences which said Fern had shown typical signs of bTB at the post mortem. This validated their tests. Etc.etc.
Mr Kremers concludes " I used to believe that we lived in a democracy, but now I know better. Many thanks to everyone who has listened, helped, supported and cared. I only hope that I have given others the courage to stand up for their principles, their cattle, their valuations and their birds, should the time come to them.."
If Mrs Kremers is right, it looks very much as though there has been lying and falsification on the part of DEFRA and the SVS in order to justify their actions and silence those who supported Mrs Kremers' stand. Read full story

April 23/24 2006 ~ "It is clear that the H5N1 problem originated from outbreaks in poultry...Poultry trade and mechanical movement of infected materials are likely modes for spreading HPAI in general..."

Global Patterns of Influenza A Virus in Wild Birds Björn Olsen et al. Science 21 April 2006: Vol. 312. no. 5772, pp. 384 - 388
"....It is most likely that the H5N1 virus has circulated continuously in domestic birds in Southeast Asia since 1997 and, as a consequence, has evolved substantially (Fig. 2). Surveillance studies in Mainland China from 1999 onward indicated that H5N1 viruses have become endemic in domestic birds in the region and that multiple genetic lineages of the virus are cocirculating (32, 33). Poultry trade and mechanical movement of infected materials are likely modes for spreading HPAI in general
.......Even in areas with significant outbreaks in poultry, virus prevalence in wild birds is low (32), and the role of these wild birds in spreading the disease is unclear. It is clear that the H5N1 problem originated from outbreaks in poultry and that the outbreaks and their geographical spread probably cannot be stopped without implementation of proper control measures in the global poultry industry. However, there is at present no scientific basis for culling wild birds to control the outbreaks and their spread, and this is further highly undesirable from a conservationist perspective. ..." www.sciencemag.org

April 22 2006 ~ "they'll be killed immediately even before more detailed testing is finished....confined and killed with carbon dioxide gas"

"If screening tests suggest a potentially virulent flu virus is present, and the birds show signs of flu, they'll be killed immediately even before more detailed testing is finished ..." These ominous words from the head of the US Agriculture Department's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. which can be read at http://www.cbsnews.com are followed by the now familiar and equally depressing statement:
"Most of America's chickens come from big commercial farms that are well-protected against the spread of disease. Yet there are many small backyard and free-range flocks - as many as 60,000 in Los Angeles alone - where birds are outdoors and are harder to protect. "
Once again, we see the complacency of the big-business intensive sector, its refusal to consider the view that what fosters disease is the environment in which intensively raised poultry are kept - and we see too the ease with which the press accepts the view that factory farms have the best "bio-security".
" well-protected against the spread of disease"? As the virologist Dr Ruth Watkins, among others, points out
"..... Indoors any infection introduced as droppings or from an infected individual is aerosolised and effectively spread either orally or by respiraotry route to all or at least many others. This starts infection like a bushfire, and the birds inside are stressed and probably less healthy and even immune depressed compared to their healthy happy free ranging counterparts. .... So far the two large outbreaks in European poultry facilities have occurred in birds kept inside...."
It is difficult to avoid the suspicion that in the US, as in the UK,there are those who would see the end of free-range and small scale production with equanimity. For what reasons one can only speculate.

April 22 2006 ~ US " The government has vaccines to protect poultry from the virus but is reluctant to use them

because vaccinated birds can still spread the virus without appearing sick. Vaccines could be used in flocks surrounding the area of an outbreak" See CBS News These are the words of John Clifford, USDA Chief Veterinary Officer - and, as in the UK, the authorities are careful not to exclude the possibility of using vaccination - but only when extensive slaughter has already been tried.
What John Clifford fails to make clear is that the small number of vaccinates who, in theory, can become carriers, can pass the virus on only to non-vaccinates. How could these vaccinated birds be in contact with unvaccinated ones, if a policy of vaccination was in play? This was true in the case of FMD and is explained clearly here (name of author on request)
"... In reality, if virus infection is a risk in the area, ALL animals on a farm would be advised to be vaccinated. Only ridiculous disease control strategists would advise vaccinating only a few animals on the farm (as occur in the experiments such as Terpstra's), or mixing vaccinates and non-vaccinates when there is infection in the immediate area. ..." read in full

April 22 2006 ~ When Exotic Newcastle disease (END) hit California rapid real-time PCR was used "eliminating individual bird handling, and providing a time- and cost-efficient sampling technique".

"An efficient and cost-effective means of sampling flocks for detection of a circulating virus" was in use three years ago and the unnecessary removal of healthy uninfected stock was avoided. The reasons behind the US slaughter plans appear to have neither sound science nor veterinary disease control at their foundation. What is very evident, however, is that as a superpower, able to influence global policy (OIE/FAO/WHO), the US is very powerful. The UK will find it harder to base its own policy on anything other than industry-driven trade considerations.
In 2002-2003, and even though the ARS Newcastle PCR test, proven by trials later to be far superior to the California test, was "already sitting on the APHIS shelf where it had been since 2001" (Breeze) as a result of US policy, California had to invent a new and inferior real time PCR test to cope with the emergency. It was, however, used successfully.
Hietala SK et al: (see PubMed Abstract)
"Environmental sampling has several advantages for flock surveillance, including minimizing direct human contact with flocks, eliminating individual bird handling, and providing a time- and cost-efficient sampling technique. ."

April 22 2006 ~ "Pingrid Alexandra promptly threw up, while the other birds did not appear to have an adverse reaction...."

"Penguins Get Norway's First Bird Flu Shots"
".......The Bergen Aquarium, in western Norway's main city, had been trying since October to get government authorization for the vaccinations....On Friday, the authority relented and granted approval. But after two of the eight birds were vaccinated, it withdrew the permit, only to give the final go ahead a few hours later.
... the first bird vaccinated was 9-month-old Pingrid Alexandra..."
So, the eight penguins got their shots - thanks to the determined and continual demands of their keepers - while the free range birds do not. As we have so often seen, the non-acceptability of vaccination is far more likely to depend on a country's trade considerations rather than on its concern about the best veterinary disease control.

April 27 2006 ~ The 1st suspected case of avian influenza in a wild bird has been detected in the Free State of Saxony. Date should be being compiled, compared, and published by a central EU scientific authority says ProMed.

"The accumulating information on H5N1 in wild birds, derived from surveillance activities in various EU member-countries" says today's ProMed, "those already infected as well as those which have been fortunate to remain so far uninfected, is of obvious importance for the advancement of the knowledge about the evolving epidemiological situation. The data from different sources deserve to be compiled, compared, and published by a central EU scientific authority; ProMED-mail will be grateful for such information and glad to post its details, when available."

April 24 2006 ~ "Poultry are more important carriers of the virus, and H5N1 avian influenza has probably been circulating, unseen and steadily, for years

in Southeast Asian flocks, the experts in the Netherlands and Sweden said."
We note that the paper in Science by Ron Fouchier and Albert Osterhaus of Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam (see below) has been reported - for example in Planet Ark. who quote the authors:
"With our current limited knowledge on highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds, there is no solid basis for including wild birds in control strategies beyond the physical separation of poultry from wild birds,"
See Science Science 21 April 2006: Vol. 312. no. 5772, pp. 384 - 388

April 23/24 2006 ~ "It is clear that the H5N1 problem originated from outbreaks in poultry...Poultry trade and mechanical movement of infected materials are likely modes for spreading HPAI in general..."

Global Patterns of Influenza A Virus in Wild Birds Björn Olsen et al. Science 21 April 2006: Vol. 312. no. 5772, pp. 384 - 388
"....It is most likely that the H5N1 virus has circulated continuously in domestic birds in Southeast Asia since 1997 and, as a consequence, has evolved substantially (Fig. 2). Surveillance studies in Mainland China from 1999 onward indicated that H5N1 viruses have become endemic in domestic birds in the region and that multiple genetic lineages of the virus are cocirculating (32, 33). Poultry trade and mechanical movement of infected materials are likely modes for spreading HPAI in general
.......Even in areas with significant outbreaks in poultry, virus prevalence in wild birds is low (32), and the role of these wild birds in spreading the disease is unclear. It is clear that the H5N1 problem originated from outbreaks in poultry and that the outbreaks and their geographical spread probably cannot be stopped without implementation of proper control measures in the global poultry industry. However, there is at present no scientific basis for culling wild birds to control the outbreaks and their spread, and this is further highly undesirable from a conservationist perspective. ..." www.sciencemag.org

April 22 2006 ~ "they'll be killed immediately even before more detailed testing is finished....confined and killed with carbon dioxide gas"

"If screening tests suggest a potentially virulent flu virus is present, and the birds show signs of flu, they'll be killed immediately even before more detailed testing is finished ..." These ominous words from the head of the US Agriculture Department's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. which can be read at http://www.cbsnews.com are followed by the now familiar and equally depressing statement:
"Most of America's chickens come from big commercial farms that are well-protected against the spread of disease. Yet there are many small backyard and free-range flocks - as many as 60,000 in Los Angeles alone - where birds are outdoors and are harder to protect. "
Once again, we see the complacency of the big-business intensive sector, its refusal to consider the view that what fosters disease is the environment in which intensively raised poultry are kept - and we see too the ease with which the press accepts the view that factory farms have the best "bio-security".
" well-protected against the spread of disease"? As the virologist Dr Ruth Watkins, among others, points out
"..... Indoors any infection introduced as droppings or from an infected individual is aerosolised and effectively spread either orally or by respiraotry route to all or at least many others. This starts infection like a bushfire, and the birds inside are stressed and probably less healthy and even immune depressed compared to their healthy happy free ranging counterparts. .... So far the two large outbreaks in European poultry facilities have occurred in birds kept inside...."
It is difficult to avoid the suspicion that in the US, as in the UK,there are those who would see the end of free-range and small scale production with equanimity. For what reasons one can only speculate.

April 22 2006 ~ US " The government has vaccines to protect poultry from the virus but is reluctant to use them

because vaccinated birds can still spread the virus without appearing sick. Vaccines could be used in flocks surrounding the area of an outbreak" See CBS News These are the words of John Clifford, USDA Chief Veterinary Officer - and, as in the UK, the authorities are careful not to exclude the possibility of using vaccination - but only when extensive slaughter has already been tried.
What John Clifford fails to make clear is that the small number of vaccinates who, in theory, can become carriers, can pass the virus on only to non-vaccinates. How could these vaccinated birds be in contact with unvaccinated ones, if a policy of vaccination was in play? This was true in the case of FMD and is explained clearly here (name of author on request)
"... In reality, if virus infection is a risk in the area, ALL animals on a farm would be advised to be vaccinated. Only ridiculous disease control strategists would advise vaccinating only a few animals on the farm (as occur in the experiments such as Terpstra's), or mixing vaccinates and non-vaccinates when there is infection in the immediate area. ..." read in full

April 22 2006 ~ When Exotic Newcastle disease (END) hit California rapid real-time PCR was used "eliminating individual bird handling, and providing a time- and cost-efficient sampling technique".

"An efficient and cost-effective means of sampling flocks for detection of a circulating virus" was in use three years ago and the unnecessary removal of healthy uninfected stock was avoided. The reasons behind the US slaughter plans appear to have neither sound science nor veterinary disease control at their foundation. What is very evident, however, is that as a superpower, able to influence global policy (OIE/FAO/WHO), the US is very powerful. The UK will find it harder to base its own policy on anything other than industry-driven trade considerations.
In 2002-2003, and even though the ARS Newcastle PCR test, proven by trials later to be far superior to the California test, was "already sitting on the APHIS shelf where it had been since 2001" (Breeze) as a result of US policy, California had to invent a new and inferior real time PCR test to cope with the emergency. It was, however, used successfully.
Hietala SK et al: (see PubMed Abstract)
"Environmental sampling has several advantages for flock surveillance, including minimizing direct human contact with flocks, eliminating individual bird handling, and providing a time- and cost-efficient sampling technique. ."

April 22 2006 ~ "Pingrid Alexandra promptly threw up, while the other birds did not appear to have an adverse reaction...."

"Penguins Get Norway's First Bird Flu Shots"
".......The Bergen Aquarium, in western Norway's main city, had been trying since October to get government authorization for the vaccinations....On Friday, the authority relented and granted approval. But after two of the eight birds were vaccinated, it withdrew the permit, only to give the final go ahead a few hours later.
... the first bird vaccinated was 9-month-old Pingrid Alexandra..."
So, the eight penguins got their shots - thanks to the determined and continual demands of their keepers - while the free range birds do not. As we have so often seen, the non-acceptability of vaccination is far more likely to depend on a country's trade considerations rather than on its concern about the best veterinary disease control.

April 20/21 2006 ~ US government will " kill off any flocks suspected of having the virus even before tests are completed"

The Associated Press has the details.
One American commentator remarks,
"Does that remind you of "we had to destroy the village in order to save it"?"
adding that every step and policy decision in the US is now under a microscope, and if a contingency plan blows up "like the 2001 UK FMD outbreak", leaders will be held directly accountable.
Another anxious comment:
" It sounds like the policy in Holland 2003 when everything was taken out in a 3km zone, and even up to 10 km, when the outbreak looked out of control. That way, many hobby birds were killed (around 280,000); hardly any of them were found to be infected when tested. The total cull was around 30 million."
When portable, affordable, mobile and efficient real-time PCR tests can be done on-site and deliver results within the hour, what possible excuse can there be for the mass killing of healthy birds and the slaughter everything mind set - and why is this not roundly challenged by vets and scientists? How right is Dr Bob Michell,Former President of the RCVS, when he writes,
"Discretion is seldom the better part of valour; it is more often the excuse for timidity. I would like to suggest an addition to the Guide to Professional Conduct  namely that animals should never be slaughtered en masse without sound veterinary arguments."

April 20/21 2006 ~ Quarantined free range birds can move on May 1

The Scottish Executive says that restrictions on the movement of poultry and other captive birds within six miles of Anstruther in Fife will end on May 1 if no further cases of bird flu emerge. This means that chicken farmers who are being forced to keep their livestock indoors within a 1,000 square mile area will be able to free them. See Telegraph

April 19 2006 ~"Testing is controlled by the government and only occurs then if the government allows.." The MacDonalds move raises fresh questions about on-farm testing

While, as we say below, the keeping of free range birds indoors will both raise the chance of virus spreading and make birds stressed, at least the giant corporation does make a serious point about testing. They admit that incarcerating poultry is "somewhat controversial in parts of Europe because of the culture of raising free-range birds" but - in view of the millions in profits involved when public health and confidence is at stake - MacDonalds has, for the past six months, had its US suppliers themselves test flocks for bird flu. They say
"In the U.S. we have vertical integration, the flocks are raised just for McDonald's, so we have total control over it"..... In other countries, that is not the case. For example, in parts of Europe, testing is controlled by the government and only occurs then the government allows.." ...". see Reuters article
On farm testing would mean that free range flocks could remain in their free state. The problem is the refusal of governments to allow breeders to take responsibility, as they do in the US, for the testing of their flocks.

April 19 2006 ~ Putting poultry indoors is no solution

The virologist, Ruth Watkins, writes:
"... Indoors any infection introduced as droppings or from an infected individual is aerosolised and effectively spread either orally or by respiratory route to all or at least many others. This starts infection like a bushfire, and the birds inside are stressed and probably less healthy and even immune depressed compared to their healthy happy free ranging counterparts.
These merely share a roost which is regularly cleaned out and do not live in a dusty atmosphere.
So far the two large outbreaks in European poultry facilities have occurred in birds kept inside..."
More

April 18 2006 ~ CVO Debby Reynolds reported to the OIE that vaccination is "routinely used" and that RT-PCR is being used at Weybridge

We were interested but surprised by the CVO's report to the OIE on 6 and 13th April 2006. Dr Debby Reynolds reported "a wild whooper swan found dead at Cellardyke slipway. The swan carcase had been collected and taken to the competent authorities under current active surveillance protocols.":
".....Source of outbreak or origin of infection: unknown or inconclusive - contact with wild animals.
Control measures undertaken: vaccination.
Treatment of affected animals: no.
Other details/comments: - Prophylactic vaccination of poultry is undertaken routinely..."
If RT-PCR is being used at the OIE/FAO Reference Laboratory for avian influenza at Weybridge why it cannot be used on site for rapid diagnosis is a mystery.
Dr Reynolds notes that "prophylactic vaccination of poultry is undertaken routinely" yet - as the 12 organisations below deplore, vaccination for H5N1 is not an accepted part of AI Contingency Planning and we continue to hear negative and dismissive comments in the UK about vaccination against H5N1 for the free range sector. The reasons for this - when 8 countries are now vaccinating poultry against H5N1 - remain unfathomable. (We have since received this information about the different kinds of PCR)

April 17 2006 ~ Pakistan "the private sector has been allowed to import 5 million doses of avian influenza vaccine to deal with any eventual emergency."

ProMed quotes the OIE and adds, "In addition to Pakistan, 7 other countries have already allowed -- or prescribed -- vaccination of poultry against H5N1. 4 countries, namely China, Indonesia, Viet Nam and Egypt, apply mass vaccinations, while 3 -- France, the Netherlands and Israel -- have allowed limited vaccination in specific target populations, including zoos ..." ProMed

April 17 2006 ~ Egypt "The government then turned to culling birds, relying on Egyptian security forces. Some poultry industry experts said this only contributed to the spread of the disease.

New York Times "...As in many other developing countries, the Egyptian government was faced not just with a medical and scientific battle, but also with a serious social problem that threatened to undermine stability in vast stretches of poor, rural communities.
Telling poor Egyptians in the countryside they cannot raise poultry at home for food and extra income would be like prohibiting Russians from growing vegetables at their dachas. It would cut off not only a crucial source of nutrition, but also a lifestyle that has deep cultural roots.... the tragedy of the disease is most evident in the Nile Delta region north of Cairo, the nation's breadbasket and now an incubator of fear and bird flu. ..." Read in full

April 14/16 2006 ~ Avian Flu "The timing and location of these outbreaks do not match the movements of migratory birds."

Bird International's report on avian flu (uploaded April 11 2006) gives a balanced argument concluding that migratory birds are highly unlikely to be spreading HPAI H5N1
".. recent outbreaks in Cameroon, Egypt, India, Israel, Jordan, Niger, Nigeria and Pakistan originated within the poultry industry. Here, as in most other H5N1 outbreaks, there is strong circumstantial evidence that movements of poultry and poultry products are responsible. The timing and location of these outbreaks do not match the movements of migratory birds... many of these countries poultry outbreaks occurred almost simultaneously in multiple large-scale poultry operations, indicating that migratory birds were an unlikely agent of the transmission. .
..in Japan, Korea, New Zealand and Australia, where there has been extensive surveillance, there have been no infected wild birds identified.
Countries such as the Philippines, on a major migration route from south-east Asia, remain free of H5N1.
Japan and South Korea have both remained free of the disease after early outbreaks confined to poultry were brought under control by closing borders to poultry imports.
Wild birds have tested positive to H5N1 in Asia. Six out of more than 13,000 wild birds tested in China were positive, and 3% of this total had antibodies to H5N1. However, out of 16,000 wild birds tested over the last decade in Hong Kong, not a single live bird infected with H5N1 has been found. This finding is particularly striking since Hong Kong is so close to centres of infection in poultry in mainland China.
The lack of a trail of H5N1 infections along migratory pathways from infected breeding habitats in Mongolia, China and Russia to southern wintering areas in Asia suggests that migratory wild birds are not spreading the disease long distances between continents. With few exceptions, there is limited correlation between the pattern and timing of spread among domestic birds and wild bird migrations. ....." See BirdLife's report on its website

April 12 2006 ~ "DEFRA is like a dead swan - Discuss"

Magnus Linklater in The Times today asks: "Why are we still shuttling dead birds across the country to the single laboratory capable of testing them, when there is a sophisticated and foolproof form of local testing that could diagnose the virus in under six hours? "
".... this vital work should be removed from under the dead hand of Defra and handed to an independent advisory body that could draw together the necessary scientific expertise from all sources and then come up with objective advice, free of government constraints. Perhaps the Royal Societies, north and south of the border, with their long traditions of independence, could act as the umbrella body. Something needs to be done if we are not to stumble into another pandemic disaster. Next time we may be dealing with more than just a dead swan." Read in full

April 12 2006 ~ "people with little first-hand knowledge of the one science they should be on top of: virology."

Magnus Linklater points out clearly what the basic problem is
"...What is disturbing about so many of the statements coming out of Defra - about the need to bring free-range flocks indoors, to end organic farming, to "monitor" but never to introduce vaccination - is that they are made by people with little first-hand knowledge of the one science they should be on top of: virology. There is brilliant work being done in research centres in Britain on zoonotic diseases and the vaccines needed to control them, but it rarely seems to filter upwards to Defra..." More
Mr Linklater draws attention to the Rapid diagnostic machines(see warmwell page) and their ilk - fully functioning since the beginning of the Foot and Mouth crisis - but ignored, at terrible cost, by the UK.

April 12 2006 ~ "Every minister and every official, taking their cue from government scientists, dutifully repeats......"

Times article ".... Every minister and every official, taking their cue from government scientists, dutifully repeats that vaccines would only "mask" the disease rather than control it. Ben Bradshaw, the Defra Minister, claims that "overwhelming scientific advice" shows that the disadvantages of their use greatly outweigh the advantages. Clearly he has not read the detailed scientific papers on the Hong Kong and Vietnam outbreaks, where the opposite has been proved: that vaccination can control and eliminate avian flu and that tests can establish whether it is still present or hidden. ..." (Scientific peer reviewed papers may be viewed on warmwell's H5N1 page.)

April 12 2006 ~ "Officials have since attempted to explain the mistake by pointing out that the bird's head was missing.."

and it was badly decomposed. But they were criticised last night for taking so long to make a positive identification. A spokesman for the RSPB said it was important to get the species right first time. "We hope the authorities will learn from this mistake," he said...." Telegraph (See also cartoon from Germany..showing German swans who like to have sole use of the beach...)

April 12 2006 ~ The New Scientist suggests UK bird tests were flawed - but DEFRA says the most up-to-date testing technologies for avian flu viruses are being used.

DEFRA has said that tests on wild birds are negative for bird flu, suggesting that H5N1 is not widespread in the country. However, according to Reuters:
"An investigation by New Scientist suggests that all those tests were flawed, meaning no one really knows just how widespread infection among British wild birds might be" ..... DEFRA defended its methods, saying the most up-to-date testing technologies for avian flu viruses are being used .... "
It would be interesting to know what these "most up-to-date testing technologies" are when it took a week to determine that the Callerdyke swan was infected. As Dr Dr James Irvine asks below:"What has happened to the recommended rapid task force that would go to an area where disease is suspected, armed with portable RealTime-PCR equipment that could make a reliable diagnosis, including strain type, within 4 hours maximum? "
#400,000 for state -of- the-art rapid diagnostic on-site tests could make Scotland the best equipped country in Europe. As Dr Breeze says "There are hundreds of scientists and technicians in Scotland today who know how to do PCR tests (a standard lab tool) and who could learn the works of the RAPID in an afternoon."

April 12 2006 ~ "One of Rockeby's ten-minute tests can be used on bird faeces and blood to detect the H5N1 strain of bird flu

while the other detects the deadly strain in humans." www.smh.com.au "The tests are now listed on the animal health division of the World Health Organisation's (OIE) list of avian influenza diagnostic kits. The company said it plans to have its tests certified by the OIE by the end of 2006."

April 11 2006 ~ Bird Flu Scotland "If this individual bird washed up from outside the UK... that does favour the theory that this is a one-off.

BBC News reports that it looks as though the swan was a whooper swan from outside the UK " The BBC quotes an RSPB spokeman
"It does build on the fact that we've seen no more positive results in the few days after the discovery of the first swan."
The 260,000 free range birds around Cellardyke will have to remain inside for at least 30 days from the day the swan was found. ( A German emailer writes, cartoon : German swans will do anything to get the beach to themselves)

April 11 2006 ~ Where are the 10m doses of vaccine on order for " some poultry" to protect our free range birds?

Is any reader able to inform us whether the Guardian article (see below) was correct in its reporting that the Soil Association had been told of a further 10 million doses for use on poultry? And, if so, there are any signs that the order is on its way? (contact warmwell) Professor Sir David King is already looking at a future where"organic and free-range farming would come to an end. It would change farming practices," and thousands of people in the UK who care deeply about raising birds in a natural environment - both for the birds' health and welfare and for our own - are aghast.
This is our "chief scientific adviser" on matters of both veterinary and ethical importance - who, although his origins as a chemistry lecturer at Liverpool were somewhat obscure, succeeded his friend Sir Robert May as the man to whom the government listens with deference and quotes in Parliamentary Answers. In spite of his so disastrously seizing control of FMD in early 2001 and failing to take note of what the real experts were - with increasing urgency - trying to tell him about vaccination and rapid diagnosis, Sir David and his circle are still in post. Few seem worried by this. We are.

April 10 2006 ~"Why can't DEFRA act now, to have a policy and inform us, before it is too late for people with vulnerable outdoor birds?"

is the main message of the letter seen on www.callducks.net which should be read in full.
"We have probably no vaccine in the bank in the UK above the zoo bird requirement. Many organisations such as the World Organisation for Animal Health, Compassion in World Farming and the British Veterinary Association ultimately advocate using vaccine also to reduce mass killing. "
The letter has been signed by:
NBvH Dutch Hobby Holders      http://hobbydierhouder.nl  (English pages link) 
British Waterfowl Association             www.waterfowl.org.uk
Poultry Club of GB                                 www.poultryclub.org
Call Duck Association                           www.callducks.net
Indian Runner Duck Association         www.runnerduck.net
Henkeepers Association                        www.henkeepersassociation.co.uk
Goose Club                                              www.gooseclub.org.uk
Scots Dumpy Club                                 www.scotsdumpy.org.uk
Turkey Club UK                                      www.turkeyclub.org.uk

April 10 2006 ~ Dutch Agriculture Ministry will allow poultry outside from May 1

Reuters "The peak period for bird migration is almost over," a ministry spokeswoman said. "We will review the situation once again at the end of April and if it hasn't changed, meaning that there is no bird flu outbreak or disease being found in wild birds, we will lift the requirement"......The Netherlands launched preventive vaccination last month for its 1-3 million backyard poultry and about 5 million free-range poultry against H5N1. Vaccination is voluntary and an alternative to the requirement that birds be kept indoors.."

April 8 - 10 2006 ~ "astonishing complacency" for ignoring calls to vaccinate poultry and farm workers

Patrick Holden of the Soil Association countered the argument that vaccination "masks disease" by saying that sentinel animals can, of course, be used. The Sunday Telegraph quotes him as saying that senior DEFRA officials
" had assured him a month ago that they would send him written details of ring-vaccination plans, but had failed to do so. Either the plans are being blocked, or there is an astonishing level of complacency at high levels of Government."
An organic poultry farmer in Cheshire is quoted:
"Defra has provided us with excessive amounts of information and documents, written in ridiculous technical jargon, so that we are left confused about what their advice really is." Read in full

April 8 - 10 2006 ~ "this failure to prepare reflects a lack of understanding of viral disease in DEFRA and government and has implications for human disease risk..."

A letter to warmwell from Colin Fink BSc (Hons), MB, ChB, PhD, FRC Path and Ruth Watkins BSc Hons, BFA Oxon, MBBS, MSc, MRCP, MRCPath
"... The pronouncements this week by Professor Sir David King UK Chief Scientist are not encouraging. The UK still has insufficient or no H5N1 influenza vaccine stocks sufficient to protect the poultry flocks and this failure to prepare reflects a lack of understanding of viral disease in DEFRA and government and has implications for human disease risk. Vaccination is the most useful weapon we have against epidemic viral disease...."
Read in full

April 8 - 10 2006 ~ Vaccination: "with the benefit of hindsight I think, almost certainly, we were wrong."

Hindsight or not, we look set to be making the same mistakes with Bird Flu as this BBC Close-up programme illustrated in the year of Foot and Mouth.
Extract: Professor Fred Brown: "......I can see all these arguments but this is not about getting rid of the disease, they're about trading, they're about money. It's not about the disease at all, not about getting rid of the disease."
Without stocks of vaccine, culling becomes the only policy if H5N1 gets into domestic fowl. It will be the free range birds who suffer by being summarily forced into unnatural and stressful conditions or - at worst - culled as "dangerous contacts". Professor Sir David King is already complacently saying that "organic and free-range farming would come to an end. It would change farming practices." The intensive broiler sector, the only group, as far as we can see, to be "key" stakeholders, and at present in fierce competition with the organic and free-range sector, want the policy to protect their "industry" from trade retrictions and from a presumed consumer dislike for vaccinated products (of which the supermarkets are full).
"We need to understand even the barbaric notions of the cull and cull again brigade, because we have to change their way of thinking about livestock. There will be other outbreaks in the future. After 1967 people wrote wise words about measures to be taken, including vaccination," wrote one gentle witness to the horrors of 2001. See archives

April 8 - 10 2006 ~ " Clearly in retrospect it needed more independent expertise on diagnostics, practical expertise on the use of vaccines, expertise on serology...."

Dr David Shannon, the outgoing Ministry Chief Scientist in 2002, summing up the problem with government scientific advice on animal health policy. The 2001 BBC programme (above) leaned heavily towards putting the whole blame for not vaccinating on the NFU, but this absolves the Science Committee, Professor David King's foot and mouth Science Advisory Group. It was dominated by the work of Professor Neil Ferguson, Dr Christl Donnelly and Prof Roy Anderson, all at Imperial College. Its influential members were guiding the policies. Unfortunately, most of them - in particular Professor David King - still are. (Read Dr Shannon's comments.)

April 8 - 10 2006 ~ Dr Shannon: " experts must listen to the public"

(From the article mentioned above) Dr David Shannon said he wanted to see an end to the prominence of what he called tabloid scientists
" The figures we see on our TV screens every day, who do not give a balanced picture... .. scientific evidence is subject to the weaknesses of all other sorts of evidence: such as the motivation of the provider, funding issues and even competition between disciplines.
Some scientists want their own discipline to be the one to solve the problem..:"Unless we solve it with this technique, we haven't solved it."
We should seek to inform the public and let it arrive at its own view.
And experts must listen to the public; that's one of the important things we must do much more of. Understand where the public's coming from. For example, about vaccination for foot and mouth."

April 8 - 10 2006 ~ "efforts to stamp out bird flu should focus on intensive rearing units "

The Independent today recalls the article by the organisation Grain, "Fowl Play" - (see warmwell page for full links to the article and more).
"A new analysis of the pandemic has sought to shift the emphasis for international action to tackle the disease away from backyard farmers and wild migratory birds. Instead, efforts to stamp out bird flu should focus on intensive rearing units..... ." The insatiable demand for cheap food, the global poultry industry and the giant factory farms of south-east Asia have been blamed for spreading avian flu around the world..." read Independent article in full

April 8 -10 2006 ~ 10m doses of vaccine on order for " some poultry" (in addition to zoo birds)

Ian Sample and James Meikle in today's Guardian Extract:
"....A total of 45 organic and free-range poultry farms with 250,000 birds are among the 195 in Scotland already ordered to bring their 3.1m birds under cover. ...
Patrick Holden, director of the Soil Association, said Sir David (see below) appeared to have "an unreconstructed attitude against nature-friendly and health-promoting forms of livestock farming. The big issue is what kind of attitude we have. Whether it is calm and sophisticated or hysterical, draconian and fear inducing."
The association had been assured by Defra officials in March that 10m doses of vaccine were being ordered as a contingency to protect some poultry. That was on top of 2m doses already on standby for zoo and exotic birds. ..." read article in full

April 8 2006 ~ Swan may have caught the virus a month ago...

The same Guardian article says
"....The dead swan that signalled the arrival of highly pathogenic bird flu on British soil is believed to have contracted the disease up to a month ago, experts said yesterday. .... The timing of the swan's infection coincides with the arrival of bird flu in France and Germany .... "By comparing the virus with others they might be able to work out where it came from," said Professor John Oxford, a leading virologist at Queen Mary, University of London..."

April 8 2006 ~ the need to protect those who handle birds

A reminder of what Professor George Brownlee of the Sir William Dunn School of Pathology, University of Oxford said in the Times in March
"there have been considerable improvements in the quality of bird flu vaccines produced by the new "plasmid-based" technology, originally developed in the UK. Such vaccines have been manufactured in China and used to vaccinate millions of chickens rather than cull them. Although labour costs are different in China, we need similar high-tech flu vaccines as one way of protecting the poultry industry. The Government should pay for vaccine manufacturers to stockpile vaccines. Similar vaccines should be developed for farm workers who are in contact with poultry. Surely, if the French decide it is economical to protect their foie gras industry by vaccination, there might be circumstances where vaccination is appropriate in the UK."read in full
We have yet to hear much about the need to protect those who handle birds. A vaccinated flock would pose no danger since, even if the virus had been circulating before vaccination and some birds infected, vaccinates shed so little virus that the risk would be negligible.

April 7 2006 ~ Defra has vetoed mass vaccination of the poultry flock on cost-benefit grounds.

However, as the Guardian points out, it is prepared for the safe incineration of millions of birds
Madness. As Dr Roger Breeze patiently points out below, if the existing technology were used
"we are actually talking about moving Scotland to the head of Europe for about #350,000 "
In addition, it would cost perhaps #12,000 a year for new test kits. The RAPID RT-PCR replaces procedures that require high containment laboratories with enormous fixed operating costs. With RT-PCR costs are low because you already have all the other infrastructure and the trained people. And far from waiting for a week for results, you can test accurately for positive infection, pinpoint it, report on it and respond to it within hours.
".....Dr Alan Hay, director of the London-based World Influenza Centre, said: "If you got a sample in, you could get an answer within three to four hours. The methods that are in place now are really quite sensitive and quite rapid. One can detect and identify these infections fairly quickly." posted straight onto warmwell's front pageSee warmwell.com

April 7 2006 ~ Chief Scientific Advisor, Sir David King, tells the nation that John Humphrys' pertinent questions mean he is "in cloud cuckoo land"

Listen Again to a mumbling, defensive, hesitating but astonishingly complacent set of answers. John Humphrys says
"..the fact that it took eight days to establish that it had the virus is not encouraging , is it?"
to which the reply from the man who is guiding the non-vaccination, non-rapid diagnosis policy in the UK. is
"I, I, to be honest, I don't feel discouraged by that. I think what we, we just have to bear in mind, John, is the um the statistics , um, since the first of February more than 500 swans, over 500 water fowl have been submitted through the laboratory testing procedure. This is the one animal that has tested negative (sic) so the first thing is a very large number have been reported- something like 600 calls a week and 120 a week are being tested, um, and, of course, the, the, the particular condition of the carcass did not make the testing easy..."
(He forgets that Tina Briscoe, when she told the police about the swan on 29th March , was told to get in touch with an animal charity. She reported it to Defra that evening and it took till lunchtime the following day before anyone turned up to have a look - as Medical News Today tells us. After that, it was sent to Weybridge the day after, but the laboratory was closed for the weekend. On Wednesday 5th April: that is, a week after the dead bird was reported to DEFRA, the sample was deemed positive. See below)
David King's references to Foot and Mouth and his own "opposition" to the policy are priceless. Listen Again )

7 April 2006 ~ Professor King talks about the end of free range farming practices

Taking birds indoors "if practicable" does not mean that poultry owners are to be allowed any flexibility. David King admites that the policy decided on is an order (in Kingspeak a "requirement") He also admits that his talks with poultry owners were with the intensive sector. "I am rather impressed with the way our poultry owners have responded." and talks about the end of free range farming practices. Listen Again ) We have the technology to stop this disease (and many other animal diseases) with rapid diagnosis and with vaccination. But here is our Chief Scientific Advisor not only thinking the unthinkable but talking calmly about the end of free range birds in Britain.

April 7 2006 ~ "I expect you are astounded that we are actually talking about moving Scotland to the head of Europe for about #350,000 ....

"..and perhaps #12,000 a year thereafter for new test kits. But this is exactly true because the RAPID replaces procedures that previously required very costly biological high containment laboratories with enormous fixed operating costs. And costs are low because you already have all the other infrastructure and the trained people. And the #350,000 is for equipment for all infectious diseases of livestock (there will be extra costs for disease-specific test cassettes). .." See Dr Breeze's letter in full

April 7 2006 ~" Zoo animals, pets and poultry that cannot be confined have to be considered within this risk assessment." Bernard Vallet Director General OIE

In a letter to Mrs Paula Polman Chairman NBvH (Dutch Smallholder Association) Bernard Vallet wrote,
".....When using vaccination, it is very important that high quality vaccines be used and that the vaccination schedule be followed and completed. The OIE, with the support of FAO, is in the process of developing guidelines..... The OIE also advises that the consumption of vaccinated poultry or poultry products is safe when appropriate vaccines are used ...."

April 7 2006 ~ As Dr Breeze says, "If not us, who? If not now, when? "

"The RAPID is being used for avian influenza H5N1 detection in countries where this disease has caused illness in birds and people. In January 2006 there was an avian influenza conference in Kiev Ukraine attended by over 350 medical and veterinary officials from the US, Europe and seven countries of the former Soviet Union: this was followed by hands on avian influenza H5N1 detection training on the RAPID for veterinary lab staff from six countries." Dr Breeze's email. More on RT-PCR rapid diagnosis. As Dr Breeze says, If not us, who? If not now, when?

April 7 2006 ~ Guardian "Although Mrs Beckett's department is not fond of vaccinating livestock, it is now a question that has to be addressed."

Guardian April 7 "Vaccinating a flock of hens does not eradicate the disease - it can still live within the birds - but if it's done properly, it can be hugely effective in cutting down the rates of transmission to other birds, as well as other animals. We have the example of Italy, which has brought in a successful vaccination programme to prevent the disease contaminating flocks across the country."

(The paper from Hong Kong by Ellis et al (Avian Pathology (August 2004) 33(4), 405 /412) tells us that

"after 18 days post-vaccination no more deaths from H5N1 avian influenza occurred and intensive monitoring by virus culture on these farms showed no evidence of asymptomatic shedding of the virus. This provides evidence that H5 vaccine can interrupt virus transmission in a field setting." )

April 7 2006 ~ "Was this swan a 'truly wild' migrant that prefers fresh water, or a resident partially domesticated bird that died elswhere and was dumped in the harbour?

I had thought that all swans were ringed because they were considered property of the crown? If so it should have been easy to find where it had come from! And what will have become of the gulls that were seen pecking at the corpse. Do they know to keep in the safety limits?" An email questions whether the dead swan was a native or a partial migrant.

April 6 2006 ~ "Decisions will also have to be made on whether culling might be necessary."

In a Guardian article today that fails to make the case for vaccination at all, we read that culling " will be ordered where the risk of infection is high, while in lower risk areas premises will be placed under restriction for 21 days with regular veterinary inspections. For the moment however, it stressed the virus had not been found in any domestic birds."
The Guardian report reveals that Professor David King's main argument against vaccination (and to appear to accept it now might seem an embarrassing U-turn on his intransigent stance in 2001 and beyond) is the necessary surveillance for which the UK is not yet adequately prepared. David King's decisions from 2001 are, of course, partly responsible for the UK's lack of the necessary tools for such surveillance. He doesn't even mention the use of sentinel birds - which can, because they remain unvaccinated in a vaccinated group, show when active virus is circulating, so this so-called disadvantage of vaccination is not important.

April 6 2006 ~ " there are two distinct strains of H5N1 circulating in China. .the full release of sequences held by Weybridge would be useful."

www.recombinomics.com ".....Although the phylogenetic tree released by the Ministry of Health in China is useful, the full release of sequences held by Weybridge would be useful. By now all eight genes from the isolates from Turkey would have been sequenced, as would dozens of additional sequences from Europe. H5N1 continues to evolve via recombination, and a complete and up to date database is important for predicting additional changes. Although China's ministry of health acknowledges both recombination and reassortment as mechanisms of H5N1 acquisition of human sequences, the WHO consultants actively ignore recombination, which is the main driver of rapid genetic changes in influenza in general, and H5N1 in particular.
...Tracking H5N1 bird flu polymorphisms is difficult because most of the sequences from Europe are being withheld by Weybridge's Veterinary Laboratory Agency...."

April 6 2006 ~ U.K. Swan Had H5N1 Virus

UK's First Bird Flu Infection has now been confirmed Reuters

April 6 2006 ~ "CVO Charles Milne last night on Newsnight did not seem averse to vaccination"

An emailer tells us that he seemed to suggest that waiting to see what the test reveals and then deciding is best. When pressed, Mr Milne assured viewers there was enough vaccine, and then when pressed further said (words to the effect of) " well there is enough vaccine to deal with the area affected. " The emailer, who tells us that the dead swan had been drifting around for at least 5 days, pecked by seagulls, and was collected 2 days ago, repeats the frustratration felt by many of us with the various media reports and interviewers muddling up human vaccination with bird vaccination, and most interviewees not picking them up on this.

April 2 - 9 2006 ~ " ..a vaccination programme would be accompanied by monitoring. And if vaccination for zoo birds, in close proximity to the public is allowed, why is not allowed for waterfowl and rare species collections, pet birds and free range birds?

More from Dr Ashton "These (ie free-ranging) birds live for many years. They are not the same as commercial birds killed at 6 weeks.
Whilst one dead swan does not make an epidemic, the reporting tonight began to expose the truth. We do not know how widespread the virus will become, how long it might be here for, and if it might affect the commercial sector. I think it also cast serious doubt on DEFRA's preparedness. They are certainly prepared to impose movement restrictions (as they should) and cull,as they will have to with infected birds. So far, a cull and confining vulnerable birds are their only strategies. How far will a cull go? And how much will people stand for this time? FMD is not that far away. In the area in which I live, people were sickened by it. "

April 2 - 9 2006 ~ "Our friends in Holland are greatly relieved that they can get on with vaccinating their hobby and free range birds..." Here in the UK, "there is there is no policy other than cull, cull, cull....."

writes Dr Ashton to the BBC about the quality of BBC24 reporting on the Scotland outbreak
" I think BBC breakfast-time has been filming in Holland this week? And of course Countryfile visited Christine Bijl.
It was said on the news that the UK has experience in combating avian influenza. Is that a reference to the single case in East Anglia, in a single shed, in 1992? Or the odd case in Scotland, I believe, in the 1960s? Is that the sum total of our experience?
When asked about vaccination, which clearly meant vaccination for birds, the discussion wandered onto the usual discourse on the ineffectiveness of human vaccines, and the estimated number of human deaths. At least Dr David Nabarro put that into the right perspective later in the programme
Dr Ruth Watkins, earlier in the news, did refer to vaccines for BIRDS. Of course, bird organisations have been begging DEFRA for months to establish a vaccine bank, and a policy for using it. As far as we know, DEFRA has 2.3 million doses for zoo birds only. To get more vaccine would take months. I think the autumn has been mentioned. There is no bank for other birds, and there is no policy other than cull, cull, cull."
read in full

April 2 - 9 2006 ~ Bird Flu Scotland. Exercise Hawthorn stopped

The BBC were apparently unable to contact the CVO at first, nor to say exactly where the dead swan had been found. We now know that the H5 strain is a highly pathogenic one. If the BVA advice had been followed ( for example, that since vaccination should be considered as part of the future control of the disease when it is identified in the UK in wild birds or domestic poultry a vaccine order be placed in readiness ) vaccine stocks could have been ordered and perhaps even been here by now. Poultry movements have been restricted in the Fife area.

April 2 - 9 2006 ~ Bird Flu In Germany

Tests have confirmed the presence of the H5N1 birdflu virus in domestic fowl today (Wednesday) in the eastern German state of Saxony. It is the highly pathogenic strain.

April 2 - 9 2006 ~ Bird Flu - No one remembers or challenges his ignorance so David King's "advice" scotches vaccination - again

No vaccine for UK birds said Mr Bradshaw on Day One of Exercise Hawthorn "Overwhelming scientific advice" (he meant David King's advice ) "is that the disadvantages of using the current vaccines far outweigh the advantages" he said. Leaving aside for a moment that this is the direct opposite of what Joseph Domenech, FAO Chief Veterinary Officer, has said, (see below) any veterinary advice by Sir David King - the arch-architect of the policy which led to the slaughter of millions of healthy farm animals in 2001 - should carry a Health Warning. His well-publicised and disastrously wrong assertions about foot and mouth vaccine last year flatly contradicted the latest official understanding - even that on the DEFRA website itself. What Prof King asserted in January 2005 was that
• there was still no differential test
• that the contiguous cull was "a major victory for science"
• the total number of animals slaughtered in the UK fell during 2001 ( justified by the fact that meat was imported)
Anthony Gibson, regional director of the South West National Farmers' Union, said at the time that Sir David King's comments were "desperately disappointing" and that the contiguous cull was "an unscientific, authoritarian disgrace", warning that the public would never accept a repetition of it.
Yet the killing of healthy stock is envisaged again for H5N1. This paper from Hong Kong is one peer-reviewed paper to demonstrate that David King is as wrong about AI vaccine as he has always been about FMD vaccine and tests.
On the Today Programme (Wednesday) Mr Bradshaw said, "It's important that the media has a careful look at which experts it quotes and doesn't put on air those whose predictions have repeatedly be proved to be wrong." Mr Bradshaw was, for once, right.

April 2 - 9 2006 ~ Mr Bradshaw's contention (via David King) that "available vaccines are too limited to provide a fully effective or efficient solution" is in direct contradiction to the OIE's view

(see below) that " the vaccines made in China at the Harbin Veterinary Institute conformed to international standards and were fully effective", Joseph Domenech, chief veterinarian at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization who said, "There are many pros and no cons for the vaccine," the Minister of Agriculture in the Netherlands who has vaccinated his own birds, and the ProMed moderator who says that "bona-fide, certified, safety-and-efficacy- tested vaccines are used, they are effective." Above all, there are peer reviewed papers demonstrating the effectiveness of vaccination.
Whatever may be the reasons the UK government is denying free range poultry owners access to vaccination , they are not scientific reasons and they should be challenged.

April 2 - 9 2006 ~ "Geese just stop eating and crawl into a corner to die; others have suffocated because their provisionary roofs collapsed.....one has not even counted the hundreds of wild waterfowl in distress. Grim reality of free range birds locked up

There is no bird flu in Holland. But the obligatory shutting up of free range birds is distressing in the extreme. http://hobbydierhouder.nl/content/blogcategory/23/54/ (Netherlands) yesterday (translated) had the headline: 'Harming' our poultry and other birds due to locking them up
"Vaccination of hobby poultry is still going very slowly. Logistics and organizing seem to be very complicated. Besides, a lot of species are not included in the programme at all. It is taking too long for our birds.
Aviornis and NBvH receive more and more reports of dead birds, because of their locked up conditions.
Geese just stop eating and crawl into a corner to die; others have suffocated because their provisionary roofs collapsed in the storm and rain. And then one has not even counted the hundreds of wild waterfowl in distress. Most ponds are too small to cover with red and white ribbons, and the surrounding fields are too big to cover with plastic (which is obligatory).
Aviornis and NBvH advise all who struggle with welfare problems, bordering on ill-treatment, to stretch ribbons over the outside fields and ponds and let the birds out.
After all, there is no bird flu in Holland.
Anyone getting into trouble with the authority should notify us. We will do anything within our power to change the conditions.
The UK must have a planned policy for vaccination, as advocated by the British Veterinary Association.

April 2 - 9 2006 ~CHRONOLOGY-Bird flu developments

Reuters Alertnet page covers the countries reporting H5N1 discoveries in birds during 2006 so far

April 2 2006 ~ Intervet already sells around 28 vaccines to protect poultry.

The "customers won't like it" argument therefore cannot hold water. We note that the "vaccination masks infection" argument seems to have disappeared from the mouths of politicians in recent weeks. That leaves "it doesn't work" - which, as the Hong Kong experience and the new Chinese papers show, is patently untrue. Cost and inconvenience remain. And since the broiler industry sees little point in protecting creatures whose pitiful lives span mere weeks, the free range sector's anxious voice remains unheard.

April 2 2006 ~ "..the loudest voices of the H5N1 alarm... stand to earn fame and funding by stoking pandemic fears."

The Sunday Times' David Cracknell talks of 'plague pits' and quotes a leaked Home Office report, Managing Excess Deaths in an Influenza Pandemic, dated March 22, which says that (human) vaccines against bird flu should not be seen as a "silver bullet" solution and "will not be available in the first wave of a pandemic [possibly longer]".
However, a Canadian newspaper quotes Ontario's former chief medical officer of health, Dr. Richard Schabas.
"This is not the first time the talking heads have threatened us with microbiological oblivion. There are a whole litany of diseases that were supposed to overwhelm us but didn't."
Schabas said the loudest voices of the H5N1 alarm, such as the World Health Organization, stand to earn fame and funding by stoking pandemic fears. ... Schabas said the strain has a mere 2% to 3% chance of causing a pandemic this year. .."
The diminishing fears of a pandemic are doing little however to stop the juggernaut of mass bird killing. Anne Larigauderie, director of Diversitas is quoted in the Guardian by John Vidal
"The medical community should invest more in understanding the environmental origins of viruses, and what can become diseases. Viruses are always there, in the forests or the fields. As the environment is disturbed, people have become closer to them and they become diseases. The best security against [diseases like H5N1 bird flu] is conservation, and awareness by governments and the medical community that these diseases are not medical problems to begin with. Nature keeps them in check. Once they are in humans then it is almost too late."

April 2 2006 ~ "The World Bank has approved a credit of 50 million U.S. dollars to support Nigeria's efforts

to deal with the deadly bird flu, according to a bank statement obtained on Saturday. "It aims to prevent the further spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza to other parts of Nigeria not yet infected by the virus ... through early detection and rapid response measures," the statement said..." chinabroadcast
Is anyone able to inform us whether some of that 50 million dollars will be used for rapid diagnostic testing? Since RT-PCR is now considered the gold standard for diagnosis (Cepheid's GeneExpert, for example, has now received the US Department of Homeland Security Certification) it would seem sheer imbecility not to use such equipment for the rapid detection of H5N1 both in Africa and elsewhere - particularly in the UK, where a rapid response would obviate the threat to the free range sector - particularly in view of the ProMed moderator's comments below.

April 2 2006 ~ 4th Swiss avian infected " the widespread (but apparently hidden) presence of H5N1 in the wild bird population in significant parts of Europe"

ProMed comment:
"The Swiss observations, similar to those in other central and northern European countries, reflect the widespread (but apparently hidden) presence of H5N1 in the wild bird population in significant parts of Europe. This phenomenon is reflected also in the notifications to the OIE: during March 2006 alone, official notifications on H5N1 in wild birds have been received from Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, and Switzerland. Several other countries have sent such notifications in Feb 2006 and earlier.
A European map on avian influenza in wild birds is available at the EU website and updated daily: http://europa.eu.int/comm/food/animal/diseases/adns/index_en.htm# Preventing the introduction of the virus into commercial flocks -- such as the recent one in a turkey farm in France -- is a challenging responsibility for the animal health authorities. - Mod.AS"
(The map opens in a new window)

March 31 2006 ~ Poultry World highlights Hong Kong vaccination success and questions UK "misinformation"

The article in Poultry World, "Lines Drawn in Vaccine Debate", quotes Dr Chris Ashton and also has a Q and A section by Jim Hungerford, General Manager of Intervet UK (see also Jim Hungerford's information to warmwell about vaccination). He makes it clear that use of the H5N2 inactivated vaccine confers protection on poultry but also allows differentiation between infected and vaccinated birds. ( We note that the article also cites warmwell.com)

March 31 2006 ~ Defra's "extensive guidance" and the compulsory slaughter of healthy free range birds

Under the appropriate heading, "Fowl Cull", in Hansard for yesterday, we read that DEFRA was asked what support it had provided to the north-east in preparation for a potential culling of fowl.
Mr. Bradshaw answered,
" Defra has issued extensive guidance to bird keepers on bio-security measures to protect their birds from avian influenza. If it became necessary to cull birds, compensation would be paid for any healthy birds compulsorily slaughtered to control the disease. If needed, we would also establish a Welfare Disposal Scheme to fund the collection and disposal of poultry."
These measured tones about the killing of healthy birds and a "Welfare" scheme of removing and "disposing of" birds will be haunting the sleep of many. The BVA advice (That Defra's contingency vaccination policy should be finalised immediately, that vaccination plans should be submitted to the EU Commission before seeking approval to actually start vaccinating, that a vaccine order should be placed in line with the UK's contingency plan and that the contingency vaccination plans should be re-examined daily/weekly ) appears to be being ignored and, as in 2001, the government is simply ignoring those who want to protect by vaccination the birds for whom they feel responsible .

March 30 2006 ~" An alternative strategy... should be in place to protect these outdoor birds"

Owners of properly cared-for free range poultry and other birds are getting more and more worried and concerned. Here, for example, is an email from Dr Chris Ashton enclosing a letter to the Smallholders Newsletter.
"As pointed out by free range poultry keepers and breeders of pure breeds, especially waterfowl, our birds cannot be confined for any length of time. Sometimes the housing is not available. Even if it is, it may not be suitable, and welfare is compromised. These stock and free range birds are not the same as industrial birds reared for 6-7 weeks in sheds with high biosecurity. An alternative strategy, other than confine and cull, should be in place to protect these outdoor birds, should the need arise.
Ordering and obtaining vaccine, and establishing rules to use it, takes months." Read in full
It seems quite extraordinary that the UK continues to behave as if the vaccination strategies approved by the EU for France and the Netherlands are unworkable. The Contingency Plan in the UK makes no provision for free range birds nor does it even mention rapid diagnosis. Those who have arranged for the legal power to slaughter to apply as and when they deem it "necessary", and for which there is virtually no appeal, have lost sight of something that used to be fundamental in our society.

March 30 2006 ~ "The evolution of the H5N1 outbreak in Israel might be of interest to other countries with similarly dense, intensive poultry industry. In particular, it will be interesting to see whether the non-vaccination policy is maintained "

The ProMed moderator on the new H5N1outbreak near Jerusalemcomments that the site of the latest outbreak, a breeder farm, is "puzzling" since " biosecurity is expected to be of high standard ":
" According to the website http://poultrymed.com/files/index.html, this outbreak occurred in a broiler breeder farm (40 weeks of age). The (initial) mortality rate was very low (40 out of 30 000 birds in 6 buildings). The preliminary initial H5 diagnosis and its confirmation as H5N1 were obtained by PCR at the Kimron Veterinary Institute, Beit Dagan.
The disease spread is rather puzzling; the location is not adjacent to previous outbreaks, and being a breeder farm, biosecurity is expected to be of high standard. Information on the possible source of infection will be welcomed.
The evolution of the H5N1 outbreak in Israel might be of interest to other countries with similarly dense, intensive poultry industry. In particular, it will be interesting to see whether the non-vaccination policy is maintained if additional outbreaks occur. - Mod.AS]

March 29 2006 ~ The Orkney AI scare "Just how long it took to get the samples to the appropriate laboratory is not disclosed..."

Essential reading for anyone interested in Exercise Hawthorn - or indeed in the ability of the Government to respond to any kind of crisis involving pathogens - is James Irvine's article yesterday on www.land-care.org.uk: "Putting the contingency plan into operation - but with the same mistakes, yet again" Extract:
" ... the problem of getting the samples from the dead poultry off the island...the officials allegedly tried to take them into the cabin of a scheduled Loganair flight, only to be refused under dangerous substances legislation...."
As James Irvine points out, this has happened before when DEFRA attempted to send samples from Perthshire to a laboratory in England by plane - yet, as we have been saying on warmwell now ad nauseam for five years - if the available (since 2001) rapid, on farm diagnostic tests were being used, this sort of thing, described by the farmer concerned as "the biggest cock-up I have heard in my life" would simply not arise.
James Irvine goes on to address the vaccination question:
" the UK government can claim that it complies with the EC directives on the matter. They are only required to think about the use of vaccination when an outbreak occurs.The UK government can say that it has thought about it and dismissed it. ...Some advanced and constructive thinking (i.e. better forward planning), better use of modern technology and of course better communication with its own staff and with others would be in order."
Dr Irvine's clear and exasperated article should be read in full.

March 29 2006 ~ DEFRA is keeping its plans for Exercise Hawthorn "under wraps"

"The aim of Exercise Hawthorn is to review, check and update the government's current contingency plans for a national outbreak of bird flu," says DEFRA. No report on the exercise will be published until "the Summer", following a debrief at the end of April.
An article in a Norfolk paper, The Advertiser, under the headline "Dealing with bird flu: the facts" , is a little short on facts.
"The exercise will involve around 30 organisations, including police and other government departments and agencies. State Veterinary Service offices in Cardiff and Leeds will also be involved in preparation exercises for local outbreaks. ... Exercise Hawthorn will take place at a conference room in the State Veterinary Service in Bury St Edmunds...Defra was keeping the details of exactly what will happen on Wednesday and Thursday tightly under wraps. .."
It will apparently be in "real-time", starting with the bird flu outbreak imagined to be on its third day. The outbreak is set on an imaginary farm in Norfolk.
Eleanor Gregg, food and farming advisor at the eastern region National Farmers' Union is reported as saying:
"There are a few questions that people might ask that don't have any answers yet, and this exercise will help to answer some of those. There are also technical issues that this should help to throw up."
(It might be thought that DEFRA's obsessional secrecy and the the failure to resolve "technical issues" before an exercise of such importance might also cause some measure of throwing up among worried people who do not fall within the government's definition of "key stakeholders". However, we are to be reassured that "advanced computer simulations" are to be used and "advanced mapping technology" will pinpoint all poultry within the two and six mile radius.)

March 29 2006 ~ Passive immunotherapy for influenza A H5N1 virus infection with equine hyperimmune globulin F(ab' )2 in mice

pdf file. Respiratory Research 2006, 7:43 doi:10.1186/1465-9921-7-43 Jiahai Lu and others: "Until we have an efficacious (i.e.for humans) vaccine, specific anti-H5N1 agents, and effective epidemiologic control measures for H5N1 virus infection, highly pathogenic H5N1 virus is likely to be a major health threat to the world. In this article, we have attempted to provide an alternative pathway of prevention and treatment of H5N1 infection.... to reduce the severity of illness and the likelihood of H5N1 transmission to others."

March 29 2006 ~ "The collective expertise of the world right now cannot tell you whether the virus moved by human agency in poultry and poultry products in animal feeds or whether it moved by the natural agency of wild birds.."

Thetyree.ca quotes Dr. Ted Leighton, Executive Director of the Canadian Cooperative Wildlife Health Centre and one of Canada's foremost experts on avian influenza in wild birds. He insists there is much we need to learn about the spread of high pathogenicity H5N1. Dr. Hartup, Director of Veterinary Services at the International Crane Foundation:
"....if we're going to pin the blame on wild bird movement, we're going to have to be much more specific. It's too easy to generalize."
... America's National Public Radio... shows a map containing both a migratory bird flyway and the path of the Silk Road. Many experts believe the Silk Road and the Trans-Siberian railway have acted as conduits for the transmission of the disease through the legal and illegal trade in birds.
.....people must consider how to protect animals, many of which are already endangered. ....
Some conservationists are worried about the threat people pose to wild birds through officially sanctioned or private culls. .." Read in full

March 29 2006 ~ "poverty, not ignorance, had driven people to rear poultry in secret..."

Reuters Egypt
"........"Everyone lives on chicken here. What are supposed to eat instead? Fava bean sandwiches? The village has been devastated," local woman Ragah Mustafa said. Her granddaughter knew the exact temperature above which the virus is destroyed when meat is cooked, she added.
Egyptian poultry farmers say the devastated poultry industry was once worth about 17 billion Egyptian pounds ($3 billion) and supported up to 3 million people. Many poor Egyptians try to supplement their income by breeding their own fowl.
Poultry once constituted about 50 percent of the animal protein consumed in Egypt, the world's most populous Arab state. Farmers say that state compensation for culled poultry is either non existent or a fraction of their losses...."

March 28 2006 ~ "Horse antibodies against the bird flu virus H5N1 are effective as treatment in mice

Antibodies against the bird flu virus H5N1, derived from horses, prevent mice infected with H5N1 from dying from the virus. A study published today in the open access journal Respiratory Research (http://respiratory-research.com) reveals that a dose of 100 5g of horse anti-serum effectively protects infected mice." eurekalert.org/

March 27/28 2006 ~ "Before Vietnam began vaccinating poultry in mid-2005, the disease was rampant among birds there. Of the world's 186 confirmed human cases, 93 are from Vietnam. There have been no new cases this year.."

The International Herald Tribune's Elisabeth Rosenthal reports on a "skeptical doctor" (about the likelihood of a pandemic from H5N1) Dr. Jeremy Farrar, based in Ho Chi Minh city.
"...Like other scientists, Farrar said he believes the world should prepare, but schooled in places where people die of real and present diseases like malaria and tuberculosis, he finds the "doomsday" scenarios sketched out by some international officials unhelpful, more fantasy than fact....he rues the lack of international research and coordination in tackling a disease that has been in Asia for nearly 10 years..."

March 26 2006 ~ "At least two large mutations and two small mutations away from being the next human pandemic virus..."

The Washington Post " A Pandemic of Fear"
" According to a significant study published in the prestigious British journal Nature recently, the H5N1 bird flu virus is at least two large mutations and two small mutations away from being the next human pandemic virus. This virus attaches deep in the lungs of birds but cannot adhere to the upper respiratory tract of humans. Since we can't transmit the virus to each other, it poses little immediate threat to us..." Read in full
(One eminent vet now refers to "Crazy Chick Disease" - which puts the virus in its place. In fear of the awaited pandemic, however, widespread culling goes on in Europe, particularly in Denmark and Sweden where many hundreds of domestic fowl have already been killed as a result of the virus having been found in dead wild birds. )

March 25 2006 ~ " Wild birds can be ruled out as the cause of the bird flu virus outbreak at a French turkey farm"

The conclusion is that wild birds were not responsible for the H5N1 outbreak in the intensive turkey farm in France has been reported in Reuters Alertnet. The outbreak affected more than 11 000 birds and was the only European case so far of H5N1 in domestic poultry in the EU. The French Ministry of Agriculture said yesterday that the security zone will - with the EU's blessing -be lifted on Monday, 4 days earlier than originally planned.
(What is particularly interesting here in France is the fact that regular bulletins are given locally and the population kept informed by leaflets, produced by local town halls. Local papers all have a section on the latest Bird Flu news and the population is thanked for their cooperation and understanding. Trust in the veterinary services seems high.)

March 24 2006 ~ "Studies suggest avian flu pandemic is not imminent" New York Times article

Yoshihiro Kawaoka, a virologist at the University of Tokyo and the University of Wisconsin is quoted: "....The avian virus would need to accumulate many mutations in its genetic material before it could become a pandemic strain
The finding suggests that scientists and public health agencies worldwide may have more time to prepare for an eventual pandemic." NYT

March 24 2006 ~ "Jordan became the latest country in the Middle East to confirm cases of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu on Friday

but said no humans had been infected and the outbreak was under control.....Jordan began culling birds within a 6-km (4-mile) radius of the outbreak on Friday. Birds further away will be vaccinated" Reuters

March 24 2006 ~ China is giving free bird flu and FMD vaccines to its farmers

The Ministry of Finance has decided to allocate 800 million yuan (about 57.5 million pounds ) from the central finance budget and more than 900 million yuan ( about 64.7 million pounds) from local governments to pay for the vaccine, the 'Farmers Daily' reported today. The Ministry of Agriculture said farmers can get the vaccine free of charge provided that they will use it properly according to the Ministry's latest immunisation regulations. See report.

March 24 2006 ~ Member States can get provisional authorisation for use of vaccination

The EU Discussion paper Vaccination of Poultry against highly pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 (Diva Strategy), dated March 2nd 2006, says
"..This document is aimed at providing guidance on the possible use of vaccination against HPAI H5N1 in domestic poultry or other captive birds in the current EU Member States in the period March - July 2006".
The paper goes on to say that
".. it is recognised that one of the most important bio-security measures, namely keeping poultry indoors, may not be easily applicable in certain categories of poultry or would compromise the status of "organic" or "free-ranging" poultry....
As regards marketing authorisation procedures, in accordance with article 8 of Directive 2001/82/EC, the Member States may provisionally allow the use of currently available inactivated vaccines without a marketing authorization for placing on the market, after informing the Commission of the detailed conditions of use."
Annexe 2 says that "Member States may apply emergency vaccination before approval of the emergency vaccination plan, subject to conditions
The paper may be read in full as a pdf file here (new window)

March 23 2006 ~ " Vaccination plans should be submitted to the EU Commission before seeking approval to actually start vaccinating"

In view of the inevitable delay in obtaining vaccines, it is to be hoped that British Veterinary Association statement (pdf file Feb 24 2006)quickly reached the right eyes. Extract:
• Defra's contingency vaccination policy should be finalised immediately
• The vaccination plans should be submitted to the EU Commission before seeking approval to actually start vaccinating
• A vaccine order should be placed in line with the UK's contingency plan
• The contingency vaccination plans should be re-examined daily/weekly"
We should be very grateful if anyone could tell us if the UK has yet submitted vaccination plans to the EU in case of need and whether the BVA advice is being followed.

March 23 2006 ~ No scientific "evidential basis" could be referred to or quoted by Ben Bradshaw yesterday

Yesterday, Jim Paice asked what the evidential basis was for statements that birds vaccinated against avian influenza continue to spread the virus.
It is hardly surprising that no scientific "evidential basis" could be referred to or quoted.
Mr Bradshaw answered vaguely that
The use of vaccination against outbreaks of avian influenza in recent years has been well documented in many scientific articles and papers.
adding that "my officials have examined the published material and consulted with experts at the Veterinary Laboratories Agency." No evidential basis here. Nor in the next part
"It has been a frequently recognised feature of the use of vaccine in the field that vaccinated birds can continue to allow spread of the virus, whilst not showing typical clinical signs. This is particularly true if large numbers of birds have been vaccinated. "
If there were peer-reviewed evidence for there being a danger of spread by vaccinated birds, would "his officials" not have been able to give chapter and verse? The vague phrase
"It is therefore widely recognised that...."
will surely not do when so much is at stake and when the question asked specifically for scientific evidence. The peer-reviewed papers that show that vaccination does indeed work and carriers are not a problem either for "masking disease" or for silent spread can be seen at the top of the Bird Flu pages

March 22 2006 ~ " we would control the disease by culling all birds on any infected premises and dangerous contacts

said Ben Bradshaw on March 17. " Depending on veterinary risk assessment advice, additional strategies could include a cull of flocks in the immediate area to prevent the spread of disease."
In view of the Contingency Plan's woolly definition of "dangerous contacts" these are ominous words indeed. Mr Bradshaw continues to contend that "available vaccines are too limited to provide a fully effective or efficient solution" in direct contradiction to the OIE's view (see below) that " the vaccines made in China at the Harbin Veterinary Institute conformed to international standards and were fully effective", Joseph Domenech, chief veterinarian at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization who said, "There are many pros and no cons for the vaccine," the Minister of Agriculture in the Netherlands who has vaccinated his own birds, and the ProMed moderator who says that "bona-fide, certified, safety-and-efficacy- tested vaccines are used, they are effective." Above, there are peer reviewed papers demonstrating the effectiveness of vaccination.
Whatever the reasons the UK is denying free range poultry owners access to vaccination may be, they are not scientific reasons and theyshould be challenged.

March 22 2006 ~ " the vaccines made in China at the Harbin Veterinary Institute conformed to international standards and were fully effective."

The Reuters article today with the headline "OIE says some China bird flu vaccines ineffective" is perhaps a little misleading. What Christianne Bruschke at the OIE actually said was
" the vaccines made in China at the Harbin Veterinary Institute conformed to international standards and were fully effective."
The perceived problem seems to refer to another recent Reuters report about findings of 2004 -2005 when researchers found asymptomatic chickens in a poultry market. Comments following this article by a senior ProMed moderator, confirmed that when bona-fide, certified, safety-and-efficacy- tested vaccines are used, they are effective - as Vietnam has found (read in full)
What Christianne Bruschke went on to say was that
"... there are local companies in China that produce vaccines and it's possible these don't have the efficacy of those made at Harbin,"
The moderator at ProMed agreed that but added that
" China seems to have recently recognised the problem and undertaken the complex task of improving controls on its vaccines; early implementation is most desirable."

March 22 2006 ~ "The Chinese are using a number of different vaccines and one of the vaccines it is claimed has a high efficacy," David King

The UK Chief Scientific Advisor appears now at least to recognise - in spite of the word "claimed" - that the Chinese vaccine is effective. (Reuters article) What is so odd is that he goes on to say that
" the often close contact between humans and chickens in China meant that vaccines were particularly necessary there."
as if close contact were not a feature of the free range poultry sector in the UK.
It would seem that David King, once again, is failing to take into account the vast difference between the intensive "factory" sector where birds are treated as mere insentient commodities, and the humane rearing of birds - accounting for several million in the UK.
"...we couldn't possibly use a vaccine that hadn't been fully through the European procedures of testing" David King says, appearing to ignore the OIE's assurance that " the vaccines made in China at the Harbin Veterinary Institute conformed to international standards and were fully effective." The French and the Dutch are satisfied with the vaccines and the Dutch Minister Cees Veerman very publically showed himself being the first to have his birds vaccinated, "This is a good way to keep bird flu out," he said.
But back in the UK we have David King's pronouncement which leaves all those free range owners and producers without the option of protecting their birds - in spite of the OIE acceptance of the conformity of the vaccine to international standards: Reuters article

March 21 2006 ~ Health risk excuse again

Reuters reports that farmers in the Netherlands are choosing to wait rather than vaccinate poultry against bird flu because they fear a negative effect on exports.
"The main Dutch poultry farmers organizations said most farmers have not started vaccinating because the biggest importer of Dutch poultry, Germany, refuses to buy meat and eggs from vaccinated animals as consumers fear possible health risk. "
We are astonished by this. The effect of vaccination cannot be compared to that of a noxious chemical infecting and staying in the body of the vaccinate. As was explained to us in 2001 by Dr Ruth Watkins, it is more to be compared to an insect sting which is swiftly dissipated by the organism. Up to 33 vaccines are used against animal diseases in meat happily consumed by Europeans. The spurious "consumer worry" was a nonsense perpetrated during the 2001 FMD crisis. At the time the FSA eventually put the fear to rest, as did the Consumer Council, who said that no special labelling was required. That such a erroneous notion should be discouraging some Dutch farmers from vaccinating is distressing. That such an excuse is still being used to hoodwink the public is disgraceful

March 21 2006 ~ Bird flu confirmed in Pakistan

Reuters "The Palestinian Authority declared a state of emergency on Tuesday in the hope of preventing the spread of H5N1 ..... the bird flu virus found in two poultry flocks late last month was the H5N1 strain. But livestock Commissioner Muhammad Afzal said there had been no other cases of bird flu since the outbreak was first reported on February 27 ....."

March 21 2006 ~ Bird flu likely would be detected in the United States this year

Yahoo reports that federal officials warned yesterday that the US would be very likely to find H5N1 this year. Efforts to fight a pandemic in Africa are being " hamstrung by a lack of money" say officials.

March 21 2006 ~ Apologies about the item below

The story appeared in the Independent on FEB 22 not March 21. As we know, the decision to vaccinate by France (pdf) and the Netherlands(pdf) was agreed by the EU a month ago when the Standing Committee on the Food Chain and Animal Health backed Commission proposals to allow those countries to carry out targeted preventive vaccination campaigns on poultry. The
March 21 2006 ~ Vaccination talks stall as bird flu spreads in Europe Apologies for highlighting this article a month late.

March 20 2006 ~ "... the real victims of industrially produced, lethal H5N1

have been wild birds, an ancient way of life and the poor of the Earth, for whom a backyard flock has always represented a measure of autonomy and a bulwark against starvation. " From the article at Post Gazette.com. Big chicken farms gave birds the flu
"... The truly great ruse is that industrial poultry farms are the best way to produce chickens -- that Perdue Farms and Tyson Foods and Charoen Pokphand are keeping the world safe from backyard poultry and migratory birds. "

March 20 2006 ~ A brave new world withour free range poultry

A Reuters report yesterday suggests that China has its sights on poultry rearing of such intensity that a worker on one already existing plant says, "I eat chicken, but not very often. It kind of makes me sick."
"At one such farm, eight workers raise 1.2 million chickens a year in six long sheds, each 1,900 square metres (20,500 sq ft), under strictly controlled artificial light and temperature"
More alarming still is the unqualified statement by the Reuters writer; "Such large-scale operations are also a defence against bird flu."
It is worrying that a respected source such as Reuters should suggest that this is an uncontested fact.
Grain's paper (read here) begins: "The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu is essentially a problem of industrial poultry practices. Its epicentre is the factory farms of China and Southeast Asia .... Within crowded poultry operations, the mild virus evolves rapidly towards more pathogenic and highly transmissible forms, capable of jumping species and spreading back into wild birds, which are defenseless against the new strain. In this sense, H5N1 is a poultry virus killing wild birds, not the other way around."

March 20 2006 ~ "So far there has been no confirmed case of a healthy, live chicken being a carrier of the virus,"

China's CVO, Jia Youling, is quoted in today's Reuters report. "China's experience has shown that vaccination is a very effective way to control bird flu." This follows a Reuters report, posted here yesterday, on the story that in 2004 researchers found asymptomatic chickens in a poultry market. Comments by a senior ProMed moderator, confirmed that when bona-fide, certified, safety-and-efficacy- tested vaccines are used, they are effective - as Vietnam has found (read in full) Today's report quotes Jia Youling
"China's bird flu vaccines are the best in the world and no healthy-looking poultry has been confirmed infected with the H5N1 strain of the disease"

March 20 2006 ~ "When bona-fide, certified, safety-and-efficacy- tested vaccines are used, the results do not disappoint."

The ProMed moderator ( AS) comments on the recent Reuters story about a 2004-2005 survey, in which researchers found seemingly healthy but H5N1-infected chickens in poultry markets in south China. However, Hoang Van Nam, deputy director of the Vietnam Agriculture Ministry's animal health department says,
"We have been using Chinese vaccines nationwide and there has been no problem regarding quality. We have just completed tests of 20 000 poultry nationwide and found no trace of bird flu," Nam said. Neither has the department found any asymptomatic chickens.
Moderator AS says, "The Vietnamese observations are significant, indicating that the issue is not simply the use of vaccines, but their quality. When bona-fide, certified, safety-and-efficacy- tested vaccines are used, the results do not disappoint." Read in full This should scotch once and for all the "it masks disease" excuse used by government "advisers" for not using vaccination. To sacrifice the country's free-range and organic poultry sector would be a high price to pay for a lame excuse. Furthermore, if angry, distressed and distrustful poultry breeders fail to report dead birds because they fear DEFRA and dread a repeat of the 2001 holocaust, the consequences could be catastrophic.

March 20 ~ CIWF says "where possible, maximum use should be made of both protective and emergency vaccination

in order to minimise the requirement for culling." CIWF pdf file

March 19/20 2006 ~ A distressing email from Demark

shows what will happen if there is no vaccination of hobby/pet/rare breeds which cannot be kept indoors. Larger birds, especially waterfowl, cannot be housed for ever - and many cannot be housed at all. (email)
It is precisely this point that British free range poultry owners are trying to get the government to understand.

March 19/20 2006 ~ Meanwhile, in Germany, a paper is to be presented to the Minister of Agriculture, Herr Seehofer

on April 3rd at which clarification about vaccination will be requested from the Minister. He is reported to have made some disquieting statements. We understand that he told the public that
vaccination of poultry is not an option because there is no vaccine available matching the virus.(A glance at the papers above could inform him otherwise) He is also reported as having said that the Netherlands are only vaccinating to buy the time to kill all the birds at a later date.
Of course, if he did actually make such outrageous statements, the Minister is quite wrong on both counts. See pdf file of the EU Commission Decision of 24 February 2006 on introducing preventive vaccination in the Netherlands. Herr Seehofer can hardly have mistaken preventive for suppressive.

March 19/20 2006 ~ German petition for vaccination

We have been sent a link to the website of the Federation Huehner-Gross-und of water poultry breeder associations, the VHGW . The VHGW has a petition to send to Federal Minister Seehofer to call for avian influenza inoculation to be permitted in Germany Individuals can sign online here. (Abschricken" means "send")

March 19/20 2006 ~Chinese H5N1 vaccine : "... Challenge studies performed at 2, 3 and 43 weeks p.v. indicated that all of the chickens were completely protected from disease signs and death.

Ducks and geese were completely protected from highly pathogenic H5N1 virus challenge 3 weeks p.v. ...... results provide useful information for the application of vaccines to the control of H5N1 avian influenza in poultry, including chickens and domestic waterfowl..."
From the Chinese research paper (pdf) (not the Hong Kong research) about the improved vaccines in China referred to Professor George Brownlee in his recent letter to The Times
".... The Government should pay for vaccine manufacturers to stockpile vaccines. Similar vaccines should be developed for farm workers who are in contact with poultry.." (read Professor Brownlee's letter in full)
See also Dr Chris Ashton's lettersetting out the case for free range birds to be vaccinated in the UK.

March 19/20 2006 ~Israel - Health authorities have decided to fly 4 million doses of bird flu vaccines into Israel from The Netherlands.

" The government will consider vaccinating all birds in Israel in an attempt to prevent the virus from spreading." Haaretz Daily
The ProMed moderator (AS) comments that
".. the vaccine will be a DIVA, H5N2 inactivated vaccine. The number of domestic avians (mainly turkeys and chickens) to be vaccinated is at least 10-fold higher than the number of doses of the Dutch vaccine....
...The discovery of the disease, almost simultaneously, in 4 separate sites, only 2 of then in relatively close proximity, may indicate that the virus has been evolving for some time, spread among the farms by human activities rather than by wild birds. Hopefully, the applied vigilance -- and early, strategic vaccination -- will help in preventing further spread.."

March 19/20 2006 ~ China: Possibilities of bird flu outbreaks reduced, says China's CVO

People's Daily "As long as the immunization policy is carried out properly, the possibilities for an outbreak of bird flu in many areas will be remarkably reduced, said Jia Youling, national chief veterinary officer, on Saturday in Beijing. At a press conference held by the Ministry of Agriculture, Jia said the country has provided 2.967 billion vaccines to local departments to stem the spread of bird flu. Most of the areas will be well prepared by the time migratory birds fly north in mid-April, Jia said. At the same time, relevant departments are ready to make new vaccines to cope with any variants of the virus, he said, adding the vaccine that has been developed can prevent the current virus. ...."

March 18 2006 ~ Vaccination costs about 10p per bird

according to the Guardian. The Dutch programme, which applies to "hobby poultry" and free-range laying hens throughout the country will cost no more than about eight hundred thousand pounds, since there are no more than eight million birds in these categories in the Netherlands. (The financial cost to the UK of the war in Iraq so far may perhaps serve as a way of putting this figure into perspective) Intensively reared poultry live only a matter of weeks so it is hardly surprising that the poultry "industry" are not in favour of vaccination. However, as Dr Christine Ashton points out in a letter here, pet and free range birds can live to over 20 years in the case of geese, and even longer in other species. Why should their owners not have the choice to protect them?

March 18 2006 ~ "...the range of hosts will increase as the virus affects new ecosystems..." Ilaria Capua says that in this situation, researchers don't have the right to restrict access to data

The number of countries where H5N1 is being confirmed is increasing . Now, a dog is believed to have died of bird flu in Azerbaijan. The eminent Italian bird flu expert, Ilaria Capua, whose laboratory is one of the 6 World Reference labs, calls for a new and urgent sharing of data.
The background to her proposal is provided in an article by Martin Enserink in "Science" "As H5N1 Keeps Spreading, a Call to Release More Data" "Most of us are paid to protect human and animal health," she says.
"If publishing one more paper becomes more important, we have our priorities messed up."
She disagrees with Dr Ian Brown of the VLA reference lab at Weybridge who feels it is reasonable to hold on to data while papers are published:
"... until a paper about the European outbreaks -- which he says could be submitted in a matter of weeks -- has been accepted, Brown says he needs to hold on to the European sequences. "The staff in this institute is working 24/7 to provide this service," he says. "I don't think it's unreasonable to expect ... for their endeavors." It also takes time to negotiate the conditions of release with dozens of individual governments, Brown says.
Capua counters that just isolating and sequencing a virus that comes in the mail does not give researchers the right to sit on the data, especially not at a government lab."
See also ProMedsupport for Dr Capua's proposal

March 18 2006 ~ "They asked me about my own experience in 2003, and why I hadn't replaced my birds..

why I think that commercial holdings should vaccinate, what role wild birds play, how I feel about Defra's decision not to vaccinate but cull instead."
Christine Ashton writes to say that she was interviewed (in glorious sunshine) for BBC2 Countryfile this Sunday 19th 11.30 on the 2003 avian influenza epidemic in Holland, and current policy to keep Holland safe. The programme will give a voice to some of those who do not share the government's complacency about its policies.

March 17 2006 ~ Orkney - chicken deaths

The Scotland Today report does not mention a fact that we have heard - that between 100 and 400 birds died overnight. .
UPDATE The Scotsman reports that the cause of death of the chickens on Orkney was not bird flu

March 16 2006 ~ "This is a good way to keep bird flu out,"Cees Veerman

Vaccination is now well under way in the Netherlands, with chickens on the farm of agriculture minister Cees Veerman the first to be treated. Large-scale vaccination is expected to start next week. see Reuters

March 16 2006 ~Denmark has confirmed

that tests on a wild buzzard found south of Copenhagen did carry the H5N1 strain. Authorities have set up a 3-km quarantine zone and a 10-km surveillance zone around where the infected bird was found. See Reuters

March 16 2006 ~ Israel suspects bird flu killed turkeys on two farms in its southern Negev region

although there are no test results yet. Reuters

March 16 2006 ~ A farm on Orkney has been sealed off and tests are under way after about 100 hens were found dead on Wednesday.

The poultry and the samples have now been flown down to the lab to be tested and the farm has been sealed off. "The remainder of the hens have now been locked up in case they have to be slaughtered. Now we just have to wait for the results." BBC

March 15 2006 ~ "There are many pros and no cons for the vaccine,"

said Joseph Domenech, chief veterinarian at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in late February: He has endorsed vaccination as a tool for Europe and for heavily infected countries, and in answer to concerns voiced that vaccination could "mask disease" said that there were other tests and methods that could be used to track the virus.
"If a country thinks there is a risk because of wild birds coming despite confinement measures, they are entitled and right to think about vaccination," he said. "There are many pros and no cons for the vaccine. The only problem is that its costly and not easy to deploy."

March 15 2006 ~ Cees Veerman, the Dutch minister of agriculture, will be the first to have his hobby birds vaccinated tomorrow

BBC Countryfile will focus on Holland's vaccination programme this coming Sunday 19th March. There will be interviews about the 2003 epidemic. Vaccination starts tomorrow Thursday 16th. About 1 person in 10 keep birds in Holland. Cees Veerman, the Dutch minister of agriculture, "became convinced that vaccination is the only way to prevent the disease, to beat avian influenza," according to Cindy Heijdra, a spokeswoman for the ministry, quoted by the International Herlad Tribune.
"Now that the dangerous strain is in neighboring countries, of course we are afraid," Heijdra said. When an outbreak of a less serious strain of bird flu hit the Netherlands in 2003, tens of millions of chickens were culled to control the disease, costing the industry tens of millions of euros."
At present, all poultry has to be kept inside in the Netherlands. From tomorrow, free range birds may be vaccinated as an alternative.

March 14 2006 ~ Dutch voluntary vaccination campaign against bird flu will begin on Thursday

Reuters "Dutch authorities will launch a postponed voluntary vaccination campaign against bird flu on Thursday, the farm ministry said on Tuesday. .... The ministry said in a statement that owners would have to bear the costs of the vaccination, which is an alternative to the requirement to keep birds indoors to avoid contact with any wild animals infected with H5N1. The Dutch government fears a repeat of the devastating 2003 outbreak of a different type of bird flu that led to the culling of 30 million chickens, or over a third of its flock, and says vaccination could limit the spread of the disease..."

March 13 2006 ~ Myanmar ( Burma ) has reported its first case of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu

" and there was a high risk poultry in Afghanistan were also infected, officials said Monday, a day after the virus gained new ground in Europe and Africa." Yahoo news
"The Cameroon government announced its first case on Sunday, becoming the fourth African country to be struck by the virus. The H5N1 bird flu strain was detected in a duck on a farm close to the northern town of Maroua, near the border with neighboring Nigeria, the government said in a statement broadcast on state radio.
New cases were also reported Sunday in Poland and Greece - two countries already touched by bird flu - in the latest signs of the disease's expanding range.
In Afghanistan, meanwhile, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said that an H5 subtype of bird flu was found in poultry samples in Kabul and Jalalabad, and that there was a "high risk" further tests could prove the samples to be the H5N1 strain...."

March 13 2006 ~ "...which bird species overwinters in China and migrates back to France through Russia in the space of a single season?"

An emailer draws our attention to a world map depicting the spread of avian flu, showing a clear path from China, through Russia to Europe. http://www.brainoff.com/avianflu/
"Does this not suggest confirmation of the illegal import/distribution of hatcheable eggs as told in Grain.org report? If not, which bird species overwinters in China and migrates back to France through Russia in the space of a single season?
Another way to ensure avian flu is spread amongst the wild bird population of the UK is to breed pheasant pullets in France, already home to avian flu outbreaks, import them to the UK and release them into the wild for someone to shoot at whilst out 'hunting'. Have the government done anything to prevent this excellent way of making sure avian flue is endemic in our wild bird population?"

March 12 2006 ~ The sheer cost of bird flu may command more respect for the idea of modernising disease control than any question of ethics or common sense

When we read in the news that Bird Flu has already cost farmers 10 billion dollars, more billions are pledged in trying to fight the virus and that the WHO is proclaiming that...
"The lethal strain of bird flu poses a greater challenge to the world than any infectious disease, including AIDS.... in its spread through poultry around the world"
... we wonder whether the slaughter policies, clung to for many, many miserable decades, will now make way for a change of direction.
With so much money at stake, with more billions already pledged to fighting the virus, governments may at last realise that the global control of disease is more important than safeguarding what are, in comparison, petty interests.
And this means making use of technology and paying for the production of vaccines, tests and expertise. Dr. Mike Ryan, director of epidemic and pandemic alert and response at WHO, says
"We truly feel that this present threat and any other threat like it is likely to stretch our global systems to the point of collapse."
For the first time, world health authorities are trying globally to to stop a pandemic before it starts - and this can't be done by sitting on one's hands talking about how the disadvantages of vaccination outweigh the advantages.

March 11 2006 ~ Two dead swans near Peterborough

According to Peterborough Today, DEFRA will be testing two dead swans found by a motorist on a country road between Maxey and West Deeping.

March 10 2006 ~ Ben Bradshaw continues to quote David King.

Hong Kong has successfully eradicated AI. :Ellis TM et al. Vaccination of chickens against H5N1 avian influenza in the face of an outbreak interrupts virus transmission Avian Pathology, 2004, 33(4):405412. can be read here (new window)
James Paice's question in yesterday's debate referred to
"experience in Hong Kong - a properly validated scientific exercise - has shown that vaccinated birds do not transmit the disease"
Mr Bradshaw answered " I remind him that Sir David King was grossly misrepresented on one broadcast last week about his view of vaccination. It may help the House if I read the brief statement that he issued in response to that. It was that his advice to Government remains "that the disadvantage of using currently available vaccine significantly outweighs any potential benefits." (read short debate in full)
Weaknesses in the advice of some "scientific experts" to the government has been highlighted by many, the most recent of whom is the Countess of Mar below.
The international appeal (see below) to the veterinary profession by Stephen M. Apatow, President Director of Research and Development Humanitarian Resource Institute calls for an end to destruction as a means of control.
Of even greater significance perhaps is the comment from WTO Director-General, Pascal Lamy, on Wednesday, reminding us that AI is more serious for the human race than a mere political or trade football. "Health takes priority over international trade agreements and intellectual property as the world tries to fight the threat of bird flu" (see Reuters) It is to be hoped that the Government is aware of the growing volume of eminent voices, such as Professor John Oxford, here.

March 10 2006 ~ complete and utter confusion

In yesterday's debate Patrick Mercer (Newark) (Con) said
" I am most grateful to the Minister for his courteous reply, but in Newark and Retford many poultry farmers and breeders have received conflicting advice, from all sorts of different sources, about whether or not they should vaccinate, yet few of them have received any official guidance from DEFRA. As a result there is complete and utter confusion. Can the Government put an end to it, please? "
It could not.

March 10 2006 ~ Bird Flu. Three counties in Germany are now solidly against the imposition of regulations keeping free range hens in cages

An emailer from Germany has written with an update on the culling and regulations in Germany. Apparently, "until the German vaccine is ready", vaccination is not being considered
"..... On the other side, people who want to vaccinate poultry are becoming more and more determined. I think this is a really positive sign. Also, there are more and more ornithologists and virologists who tell the press, that AI might have reached Germany a long time ago, but wasn4t detected until the swans on Rúgen
The email urges readers to sign this international petition against preemptive killing.

March 9 2006 ~ Chinese paper "Protective efficacy in chickens, geese and ducks of an H5N1-inactivated vaccine developed by reverse genetics"

See Technical Pages on warmwell. Extract:
"The culling of infected poultry is the time-honored method to control or eradicate the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks and also the best-known way to prevent transmission to humans. However, when the viruses are widely spread over a huge area and involved in multiple avian species, culling and physical containment are highly unlikely to be successful. An alternative strategy would be culling plus vaccination...."
".. it is actually feasible to apply vaccines to protecting domestic waterfowl from H5N1 influenza virus infection. It is worthy to note that complete control and eradication of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses only be ultimately achieved by a combination of vaccination, improved biosecurity, extensive surveillance and an effective monitoring program. An effective vaccine is one crucial player in this multi-part scenario..."

March 9 2006 ~ " just isolating and sequencing a virus that comes in the mail does not give researchers the right to sit on the data, especially not at a government lab."

ProMed quotes Ilaria Capua of the Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie in Italy who has "asked more than 50 colleagues around the world to release all sequence data for the H5N1 avian influenza strain into the public domain. Comparing sequence data from every H5N1 isolate as soon as they become available is crucial for understanding how the virus moves and evolves, Capua argues..."

March 9 2006 ~ H5N1 bird flu virus has been confirmed today in a stone marten on the island of Ruegen

"The Friedrich-Loeffler Institute confirmed the presence of the virus in the marten, a carnivorous mammal with brown fur and a white throat patch. The animal was found sick and apparently dying on the island of Ruegen in northern Germany on March 2. It was then killed by a government veterinarian, the institute said in a statement. The deadly strain of bird flu was found in a cat on the same island last month, the first time the virus has been identified in an animal other than a bird in central Europe. Infected cats have since been found in Austria." Yahoo.com

March 9 2006 ~ " Health takes priority over international trade agreements and intellectual property

as the world tries to fight the threat of bird flu, the head of the World Trade Organisation said on Wednesday. "To the question of whether a WTO member can put up obstacles to trade as a consequence of a threat to public health, the answer is yes," WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy told a business meeting in Madrid. ..." Reuters

March 9 2006 ~ "Asked if there had been any decisions to update contingency plans, the PMOS said there had not been any.

The language and tone of today's No 10 press briefing" Asked whether for further information (sic) about the bird flu discussions at Cabinet, the PMOS replied that it was a résumé of what we already knew, and of the uncertainties which surrounded the issue. The discussion was an attempt to sketch out the contingency planning to deal with any eventualities. It was clearly a very uncertain issue. .... Asked if it had been discussed how it would affect Ministers, the PMOS said: no. Put that Ministers would be given the medication Tamiflu, the PMOS said he did not know."

March 8 2006 ~ Professor John Oxford wants the UK to follow the Dutch on vaccination "I would like us to get our precautionary level up to theirs"

Virologist Professor Oxford from the Queen Mary medical school says on Farming Today This Week that the Dutch are setting an excellent example. "...science is pushing them ... they are very knowledgable. They have done a lot of work and put a lot of investment into this over the last couple of years whereas we have not... they are taking more precautions than we are."
Eventually all nations will have to go down the route of vaccination, says Professor Oxford
" Some of them will struggle. Some of them will kick - but I don't imagine that we are going to be talking here in a year's time with vaccination not at the head of things. Society is not going to put up with this mass killing any more. Scientifically it seems 19th "centuryish"..."
He said that, as a virologist, he deplored the fact that no action seems to be going to be taken in the UK until virus has actually been isolated. "I don't see it extinguishing itself...this virus has a pedigree of changing from something quite small to something big fairly quickly."

March 8 2006 ~ Professor Albert Osterhaus "We woudn't like to take the risk again...we need to go for vaccination"

For those who missed Farming Today This Week, it is worth listening to a real expert, Albert Osterhaus, who says, "if we want to have free-range animals again we need to go for vaccination and we know that there is, in principle, an effective vaccine."
He said that he wasn't sure that the UK government will continue to be reluctant to use vaccination in the end. A culling strategy would be "completely unacceptable" in the Netherlands and that even if you have "one animal that has not been correctly vaccinated, the chances of the virus in that animal being able to cause problems is very very limited because of the birds' immunity that you induce."
In the same programme Alex Thiermann says - in contrast to David King - that vaccines are effective if they meet the OIE standards and are administered properly. On the subject of Nigeria in particular, he says, " We think vaccination is going to be needed, it's unlikely culling alone will contain the virus.. the vaccine is available, the money is available."

March 8 2006 ~ "We are continuing to work with stakeholders.."

Last week, Paul Keetch (Hereford, LDem) asked DEFRA "what measures are in place to protect the farming industry in Hereford in the event of an outbreak of avian influenza in the UK?" Ben Bradshaw replied:
"....disease control would focus on the slaughter of infected birds and dangerous contacts, and the imposition of movement controls around infected premises.
Poultry movements would still be permitted under licence, depending on risk assessments and the proximity of poultry to infected premises. This approach would allow much of the poultry industry to continue its normal business. ... Our extensive wild bird surveillance programme in the UK has not revealed highly pathogenic avian influenza in any sample collected so far. We are continuing to work with stakeholders to increase vigilance and encourage sensible bio-security measures."
"Much of the poultry industry" refers to the intensive sector. It does not hold much comfort for free range flocks in the vicinity of infected industrial "farms". Mr Bradshaw also said that "the vast majority of stakeholders agree" that "... swift detection and culling of infected flocks and dangerous contacts... is a more effective and efficient strategy for disease control

March 8 2006 ~ The extensive wild bird surveillance programme referred to is a somewhat vague entity and who are "stakeholders"?.

It seems that in England surveillance is not at all extensive; dead wild birds are collected and tested only in the southeast (http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/news/farmingtoday/index.shtml ). The UK does not know where many of its poultry is to be found and surveillance of imports of wild birds - in spite of all warnings - has been lamentable as we saw with the Brentwood fiasco. As for working with stakeholders - the DEFRA definition of "stakeholder" seems to be "one who already has a loud voice and sharp elbows" not the many, many owners of small free-range flocks who continue to be bewildered by what may happen.
Farming Today This Week recently reported that people are encouraged to pick up and bury dead birds. Yet telling people to pick up and bury dead birds is perpetuating the potential for exposure to this pathogen. The CDC guidelines involve protective barriers such as gloves, gowns, aprons, masks, or protective eyewear.

March 7 2006 ~ "We know next to nothing about this virus; we have only anecdotal information about where it exists and what birds it infects"

Vittorio Guberti, head vet at the Italian National Institute for Wildlife and who has been studying influenza in wild birds for more than 10 years is reported in the New York Times.
"....."We don't even know where to focus. We have to sit and wait for the big epidemic to occur, and in the meantime there will probably be small outbreaks all the time."
Scientists do not know, for example, which species are the major carriers of A(H5N1). While they suspect that there may be a few areas at the fringes of Europe that are perpetually infected with the virus, they are not sure exactly where. And while they are convinced that the virus can be carried on trucks, on soles of shoes and in fertilizer, they are not sure how significant those routes are. ....." Read in full
One of the most interesting - and worrying - points in the article is the comment by the FAO's Juan Lubroth
"It's easy to blame migrating birds, because then no one is responsible."
Fertilizer that may contain infected bird manure is commonly used to fertilize fish ponds where migrating birds feed. However, the Nigerian outbreak is far from the wetlands. "The outbreaks were in the wrong place and at the wrong time of year."
It is believed that Nigeria's problem may have been caused by the transport of sick birds or bird products infected with A(H5N1) from elsewhere. But what the article makes abundantly clear is that even the genuine experts simply do not yet know very much at all.

March 6 2006 ~ The poultry industry constantly asserts that the "biosecurity" of its "farms" is excellent. In fact - as in the 27, 000 turkey enterprise in France - bird flu finds its way in and causes massive outbreaks at factory farms.

The report below from GRAIN should be taken very seriously. We understand that by the time the HN51 was positively identified on the French turkey farm and they went in to slaughter, 80 percent of the turkeys were already dead. The virologist Ruth Watkins tells us "...there is a large susceptible population, they are in close contact in every way, faeco-oral or respiratory, and the genetic type of virus that has the shorter incubation period, the greater titre, will beat one with the converse - even the death of the infected host does not matter to its success as there are thousands to infect "
If the report is correct, the danger to traditional methods of poultry keeping from misinformed bureaucracy (as in 2001) is very great. This forum post from Canada is ominous: "....in 2004 there were over 35 commercial agri-food barns that were infected with AI.... in each barn birds were quickly killed or incapacitated by AI and finally destroyed....All around the barns were commercial free-range, healthy backyard flocks in the open air...nevertheless these healthy flocks were destroyed on the basis of proximity (five and then ten km) NOT on the basis of infection..."

6 March 2006 ~ H5N1 strain of bird flu is essentially a problem of industrial poultry practices says GRAIN

"... The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu is essentially a problem of industrial poultry practices. Its epicentre is the factory farms of China and Southeast Asia and -- while wild birds can carry the disease, at least for short distances -- its main vector is the highly self-regulated transnational poultry industry, which sends the products and waste of its farms around the world through a multitude of channels. .."
An important and well documented report from Grain an international NGO promoting agricultural biodiversity "based on people's control over genetic resources and local knowledge":
"......Rare are photos of the booming transnational poultry industry. There are no shots of its factory farms hit by the virus, and no images of its overcrowded trucks transporting live chickens or its feed mills converting "poultry byproducts" into chicken feed. The selection of images sends a clear message: bird flu is a problem of wild birds and backwards poultry practices, not modern industry. In this way, the most fundamental piece of information needed to understand the recent avian influenza outbreaks gets left out of the picture..."
Read in full

March 3 2006 ~ " If we do not order or make any vaccine for birds then we can never use it. Are we heading for another disaster on the scale of 2001?" Dr Ruth Watkins

"The persistence and spread of this HPAI H5N1 virus strain is an extraordinary phenomenon without precedent," writes the virologist Dr Ruth Watkins. This up to date article on avian influenza commissioned by the CLA has been sent to warmwell and can be read here. A shortened version of it is to be published in the Wales CLA magazine and the full article should be available on the CLA web site.
"....Why not vaccinate free- range poultry and pheasants as well as hold vaccine in reserve to ring vaccinate an outbreak in a domestic flock? Vaccination may be found necessary in bio-secure flocks to prevent breakdowns of infection in intensive poultry systems." Read in full
Interestingly, Dr Watkins has words of praise for DEFRA in that "they have moved forward on diagnosis in contrast to the 2001 FMD outbreak."

March 3 2006 ~ H5N1: Appeal to Veterinary Profession

Stephen M. Apatow, President Director of Research and Development Humanitarian Resource Institute at Pathobiologics International, has sent out this Appeal to the Veterinary Profession. He quotes the former President, American Association of Avian Pathologists
"...Destruction may work when dealing with an early outbreak of an exotic disease. However after three years of utilizing this WHO-FAO approach, H5N1 has spread from part of one continent to three continents. MADNESS! It's time for a better approach..."
Dr Apatow asks that vets read and review:
• "a veterinary statement regarding the 2001 UK FMD disgrace,"(sic) "by Willem Schaftenaar DVM, Rotterdam Zoo and Chairman of the Committee of Zoo Veterinarians of the Royal Dutch Veterinary Association. Rotterdam, March 21, 2001"
• and the paper that has been on warmwell for the past two days :Ellis TM et al. Vaccination of chickens against H5N1 avian influenza in the face of an outbreak interrupts virus transmission. Avian Pathology, 2004, 33(4):405412.
Read the Appeal to the Veterinary Profession in full. It is extremely significant that people of such professional stature deem it "madness" not to utilise vaccination and differential testing when both are available and effective.

March 3 2006 ~ "We just hope it doesn't happen..."

This still seems to be the overriding official thinking on the whole question of bird flu.
In Ipswich, a senior trading standards officer at Suffolk County Council, said: "One of the major issues in the event of an outbreak is looking for susceptible birds. That is a door to door exercise. There is a 3km radius and it may be a 10km radius. We just hope it doesn't happen in Ipswich..." According to the report on www.edp24, said he had no idea how many chickens there are in his area.
The head of emergency planning at Norfolk County Council made this ominous statement,"We would enforce whatever restrictions the Government imposed." That means, of course, going from house to house killing people's healthy poultry, closing public footpaths around infected farms, and choosing ways to get rid of thousands of carcases. Behaving, in short, as they did in 2001 - the traumatic social impacts of which are still being felt. All this when, as one sane poultry owner put it in an email,
"...DEFRA should have a vaccine bank. ... available for preventive vaccination for flocks most at risk i.e . free range in East Anglia. ... at the rare Breeds Survival Trust Poultry forum on 28th February ...DEFRA officials have, I think, at last realized that rare breeds and pure breeds of waterfowl cannot be kept outdoors in high risk areas without prophylactic vaccination. It has taken a long time to get this message through. Biosecurity may work for the broiler industry - but birds which HAVE TO BE OUTDOORS are at risk."
Read again the peer reviewed paper from Avian Pathology (new window)on how properly conducted vaccination in Hong Kong both protected birds and precluded silent spread.

March 3 2005 ~ "when will the Government set out the circumstances in which vaccination will be used? " asked David Cameron

The Prime Minister's reply yesterday -(very different from the reasurance given to the French by M.de Villepin below ) - showed to whom he has been listening
"A series of people - our chief scientific adviser, the chief veterinary officer and others - advise us and sensibly we follow their advice. I am not an expert on this issue and nor is the right hon. Gentleman, but these people are. " Hansard
Alas they are not.
They advise that although vaccination is effective in stopping birds dying, it is not effective in stopping the virus spreading. Their worry has always been that vaccination masks the disease, rather than stopping it spreading.
The peer reviewed paper from Avian Pathology refutes this. Information is not being properly shared. Reading this extract from Hansard makes one realise that official ignorance about latest scientific advances, virology, epidemiology and frankly, about how ordinary people feel about their free range chickens and pets - is now positively dangerous for the health of our country. Since trust in DEFRA and the SVS is now so low (as in this email) that there are people who are far more likely quietly to bury the evidence of any infection - H5N1 or not - than report it to officialdom, the reluctance to vaccinate as soon as possible could be catastrophic.

March 2nd/3rd 2006 ~ "To my understanding, there are no 'silent carriers'..."

Another email from the General Manager of Intervet UK casts serious doubt on David King's reasons for dismissing vaccination.
"When our vaccine is used as recommended (2 doses 4-6 weeks apart) it prevents transmission of the disease, even with the high challenges used experimentally..... infection...dies out - no new birds get infected, and the few infected birds (which are not clinically sick) recover and clear themselves of the infection. .. what happened in Hong Kong during their outbreak - vaccination, as part of a very stringent overall control program, stopped virus circulation on infected premises from 18 days after the vaccination started. Importantly, carriers were not found. These findings are reported in the attached publication. ( "Vaccination of chickens against H5N1 avian influenza in the face of an outbreak interrupts virus transmission" Avian Pathology, August 2004 (opens in new window)
To whom is the UK Government listening? To those who led the UK into the miserable fiasco of foot and mouth 2001 and who have an undoubted vested interest in the continuation of the myth that "vaccination doesn't work" - or to those whose work and experience provides evidence that it most certainly does?

March 2nd/3rd ~ Dominique de Villepin reassured poultry keepers, talking about transparency, vaccination, information and financial support

"... I should like to send out three messages today. The first is about transparency.... . The second message is about protection. ..... The third message is of course about our support for the entire poultry food chain, breeders and the industry. We will begin the vaccination of poultry alongside confinement and protection measures on farms in order to guarantee maximum security. We've also budgeted for compensation and tax relief to the tune of 11 million euros for the poultry industry. We've released an extra 52 million euros for poultry breeders and for the industry as a whole. " Read extact from last friday's speech by the French Prime Minister.
Vaccination is now underway in French zoos.

March 2 2006 ~ "Zoo and free range birds should receive preventative vaccination." Intervet

Jim Hungerford, General Manager of Intervet UK, writes to warmwell, ".. Our reasoning is that these are the birds most at risk and they are solidly protected for 12 months after the two doses of vaccine - if they are exposed to any virus it will not become established or be transmitted (as exposure is an unpredictable risk with migrating waterfowl, we believe vaccination should start now to ensure these birds are protected as soon as possible). The use of non-vaccinated sentinel birds and antibody (DIVA) testing provides the appropriate assurance of vaccination, non-exposure and non-infection.
The government proposal of waiting for an outbreak will require slaughter of the exposed birds (clearly unacceptable in a zoo situation) and the emergency vaccination and quarantine in the surrounding zone. If despite this the infection spread, I can't see society accepting a repeat of the terrible scenes that we saw during the FMD crisis, and I hate to think what it would do to our agriculture. Also, the proposal to house free range birds for months in buildings that are only designed for overnight use poses major animal welfare problems. Finally, emergency vaccination (with a single dose) is never as good as the full course of two doses...." Read the email in full, together with the Intervet Question and Answer sheet and latest press release

March 2 2006 ~ a group of American military scientists has called for the setting-up of a global network of laboratories to contain outbreaks of bird flu and other new diseases that could trigger a world pandemic.

The Times repeats yesterday's news from Reuters that Jean-Paul Chretien of GEIS says "It would be foolish and unreasonable for the international community to rely on the military priorities of a single country for the expanded surveillance network that is urgently needed. We cannot be optimistic that a deadly and easily transmissible disease emerging in sub-Saharan Africa, or a rural part of Asia or South America, would be detected, characterised and contained before spreading. But we do have a model for improving the situation. A network of . . . laboratories could help to detect and contain epidemics in key areas."

March 2 2006 ~ The Manchester FMD Conference - Programme

Read in full (My own situation in France made it impossible for me to accept the invitation to speak at the conference myself - but it is highly encouraging to see so many familiar names on the programme. The keynote speech in particular will be dramatic and unmissable. )

March 2 2006 ~ "the Soil Association said it was "mystfied" and "dismayed" by the decision not to vaccinate..."

(BBC) ".... It called for the use of "ring" vaccination - when poultry close to any outbreak are inoculated.
"They have got to bring in every weapon in their armoury," said the association's Robin Maynard. He said he had a sense of "deja vu", likening it to the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. "The end result was 11 million animals slaughtered and #8bn cost to the tax-payer. We just don't want to go down that barbaric, medieval route." ..
...organic poultry farmer Ritichie Riggs, from Holsworthy, Devon, branded Prof King's comments as "irresponsible", while the decision not to vaccinate had left him "demoralised".
"They don't care about the flocks, they are not farming people, they don't care about the animals. We are just going along exactly the same route as they took with foot-and-mouth disease," he said. ..."
Read in full

March 2 2006 ~ Ben Bradshaw has given permission for the Stafford Bird Show to go ahead this weekend.

An emailer tells us that an attempt to get a High Court injunction banning the show has failed. The trade fair of exotic birds has been approved by DEFRA and the Staffordshire Council "provided the names of all the sellers and buyers are recorded". 100 dealers will attend, including some from Germany and Holland.
Clifford Warwick, an expert in zoonotic diseases, commented,
"When you are in a sinking ship you don't go drilling holes in it.'
...but the judge opined that 'the evidence relating to avian flu was merely " based on press speculation"
Switzerland's first case of H5N1 bird flu has been confirmed by tests on a duck found in Lake Geneva. See BBC
Russia said yesterday that it had destroyed 1.35 million domestic and wild birds since July 2005 and now plans to start mass vaccination of domestic fowl, beginning on March 10 to prevent the spread of the virus. ( See Reuters)
At least 15 other countries on 3 continents reported initial outbreaks of the virus in February : Iraq, Iran, Bulgaria, Nigeria, Greece, Azerbaijan, Italy, Austria, Hungary, Egypt, India, France, Slovenia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. See also Yahoo's Wall of Distrust in Nigeria Bird Flu Fight in which we read how mistrustful the poorest farmers are, chasing away culling teams. Bernard Vallat is quoted: "We won't get out of the crisis in Africa, notably, in a few months. We have to put in at least three years of effort.....the greater chance of the virus transforming itself into a virus more dangerous for mankind."

March 2 2006 ~ " ..a-tishoo, ..a-tishoo! ALL FALL DOWN? How prepared are we for Avian Flu?"

IF WE GIVE THEM THE TOOLS, THEY CAN FINISH THE JOB:
A manifesto for global livestock epidemic disease eradication in our lifetimes.
Dr Roger Breeze
7.30pm Wednesday 15th March, Manchester Town Hall (Admission free) Read in full

March 1 2006 ~ Not only are there effective vaccines available, there are also differential tests to distinguish between vaccinated and infected birds.

The UK has not ordered any . Only 2 million doses for zoo and rare/protected species are now finally on order but there will be a time delay before delivery. We are being led by the same thinking that resulted in the misery, waste and despair of FMD 2001. The difference is that this time the "advisers" are playing with the real possibility of a human pandemic. (And pet owners may be more averse to government policy now that it has emerged that Germany is advising cat owners to keep their pets inside and dog owners to keep them on a lead because of the risk of contracting birdflu. Channel 4 News will report on this tonight) and see also foodconsumer.org

March 1 2006 ~ The French are vaccinating nearly a million birds they say cannot practically be moved indoors.

In the UK however, the Chief Scientific Adviser (see below) David King, appears to take no account of small scale outdoor poultry keeping. The big intensive farms can survive because they are enclosed. But there are many small scale free-range units in Britain. In the case of a recognised outbreak these birds will be summarily slaughtered - if the authorities know where they are. Those registered (and only a third of those that should have done had done so by the deadline) will be doomed. But what of the small holders who have not registered? Are they really likely - without any trust, help, information or encouragemnet having been offered to them- to offer up their birds to be killed? Memories of the bullying fiasco of FMD make this highly unlikely. And the consequence of birds being hidden is that the disease could be "masked" far more effectively than the theoretical problem with vaccination.
David King maintains (FWi) that an outbreak of avian flu in the UK would be far easier to control than the foot-and-mouth disease crisis in 2001. He is choosing once again to ignore the small scale keepers. Their fears and uncertainties are being ignored and no practical help or financial assistance is being offered to them. Such an attitude is dangerous. If the virus is able to mutate as a result, the consequences of the UK stance could indeed be lethal.

March 1 2006 ~ Vaccination takes 18 days before fully prevents infection. It stops infection and prevents asymptomatic virus shedding. We should be vaccinating now in the precious days before the virus gets to the UK.

The UK insistence that vaccination can mask infection needs to be countered by peer-reviewed studies. For example, from the paper Vaccination of chickens against H5N1 avian influenza in the face of an outbreak interrupts virus transmission (Avian Pathology (August 2004) 33(4), 405 /412) we read that - far from "masking infection" via silent shedders of virus, vaccination does stop the disease from spreading.
"....One of the concerns in the use of vaccine to control HPAI in poultry farms is the possibility that while vaccine may protect from disease, asymptomatic virus circulation may continue, resulting in spread of infection to other farms. The monitoring and surveillance conducted on these three chicken farms showed that use of this killed H5N2 vaccine in the face of HPAI H5N1 virus challenge was able to protect chickens from disease and interrupt virus transmission. The protective effect of vaccine became apparent after day 18 post-vaccination. ...This investigation showed that the use of killed H5N2 vaccine on three farms undergoing H5N1 HPAI outbreaks was able to protect chickens against disease and also to interrupt asymptomatic virus shedding. This is particularly relevant when dealing with viruses such as H5N1 where the virus also poses a significant risk to human health." Read in full (pdf)

March 1 2006 ~ Blair reassures MPs on bird flu

With sinking heart we read on epolitix that Mr Blair has told MPs that all the appropriate measures are being taken to protect Britain against bird flu. This is not true, unfortunately. The so-called "specialists" advising the government are convincing them that vaccination "masks the disease and does not actually stop it from spreading". But this is a wild simplification. In the paper Vaccination of chickens against H5N1 avian influenza in the face of an outbreak interrupts virus transmission (Avian Pathology (August 2004) 33(4), 405 /412) we read what "appropriate measures" actually looked like in Hong Kong where the virus was successfully controlled.
".... A comprehensive package of measures including enhanced biosecurity programmes for farms, wholesale and retail poultry markets, the use of rest days in markets to break cycles of infection and a comprehensive monitoring and surveillance programme for early detection of any H5 avian influenza virus incursions.........avian influenza vaccination in Hong Kong is used to complement the strict biosecurity measures and a comprehensive monitoring and surveillance programme already in place. Comprehensive vaccination of all chicken farms supplying the local retail markets was introduced as an additional layer of protection after a one year long vaccination evaluation trial (Ellis et al ., 2004b).

March 1 2006 ~ "... the virus also poses a significant risk to human health"

From the same paper above we read: " If you do not vaccinate, all exposed chickens have the potential to become infected with H5N1 viruses that will replicate to high titres and shed large quantities of virus in faeces and respiratory secretions that will infect further chickens. Each replication cycle increases the number of mutations and the potential for antigenic variation. .." The UK government seems to be forgetting the potentially lethal possibilities associated with a non-vaccination programme.

March 1 2006 ~ France bans light aircraft to avoid scattering infected birds: UK orders spotter planes to fly low over migration areas.

Flights by small pleasure aircraft over areas where migrating birds may be infected have been forbidden in France so as not to scatter the wild birds already there. (Yahoo) In Britain however, spotter planes have been concentrating on areas populated by migrating birds, such as Romney Marsh, Morecambe Bay and the Mersey estuary. One Government source said: "The planes are being used to see if there are cases of dead birds in areas where we could not normally reach them."(Mirror)

March 1 2006 ~ Lack of agreement about vaccination against bird flu - whose view should be trusted?

Is there some fundamental disagreement between the Ministry and Chief Scientific Adviser David King - as there undoubtedly was in 2001? David King's role in the foot and mouth disaster will never be forgotten. 'I should engage myself immediately', and 'impose myself on the situation' he said ( Dr. Richard North's account). The Chief Vet, Jim Scudamore, was subsequently sidelined and David King, in spite of having no veterinary expertise, was able to use his position to ensure that Professor Roy Anderson and his team were to form the 'Chief Scientific Advisor's Science Group' . As David Shannon,the retired Chief Scientist of DEFRA, was to write later,
"The Science Group had enjoyed enormous power without any formal responsibility "
Dr Keith Sumption (now promoted to the EUFMD Commission, FAO, Rome, on control of FMD Europe-wide) told the EU Inquiry (Daily Telegraph) that if blanket vaccination had been used in 2001
"following typical epidemiology patterns after vaccination, the last case would have taken place around one month after vaccination began."
But David King rejected vaccination and failed to recognise the potential of the RT-PCR rapid diagnosis machine - in spite of having been given a personal demonstration. Caroline Lucas, vice-president of the committee of inquiry, said at the time "It is scandalous that the Government preferred a policy of indiscriminate and illegal slaughter to a policy of testing and vaccination."

That was, of course, five years ago but Sir David King is still saying much the same now as he was saying then. The international experts - such as Albert Osterhaus below - are saying the opposite. Tim Bennett, current president of the NFU, says, "If the scientists recommend vaccination we will go with vaccination. That is why we must make sure, if that is what is recommended, we can actually do it."

March 1 2006 ~"... councillors wanted them given the jab in advance of any possible outbreak of the disease."

The Western Morning News reports on the distress in the West Country at the lack of vaccine to protect the famous black swans of Dawlish. The DEFRA spokesman repeated, what we have now heard so often, that "..the problem is that while it protects the birds from the disease it does not prevent birds from becoming infected and spreading virus " although, interestingly in view of Sir David King's stance at the NFU conference, the DEFRA spokesman did say, " it is on order. We have not ruled out the use of vaccines to tackle the disease." So apparently, vaccines are now being ordered - although they had not been by February 21st (see below).
The Question and Answer page of the EU press release section on avian influenza explains that: "Vaccination does not provide 100% protection against avian influenza, and vaccinated birds may still become infected with the virus, depending on certain conditions e.g. level of exposure to virus. It emphasises that strict surveillance and control measures have to be carried out on vaccinated poultry under EU legislation and says that the costs can be high if vaccination has to be carried out on a large scale. However, in discussing the advantages of vaccination, we read that vaccination reduces the risk of birds becoming infected, lowers the chances of the virus being introduced and reduces the amount of the virus shed if vaccination was too late to prevent infection. The vaccine is particularly useful in protecting valued birds. Read in full

February 28th 2006 ~ "A lot has to do with the trust level between the public and government,"

Reuters quotes Alex Thiermann, president of the standard-setting committee for the World Animal Health Organization. In response to the news that 20 countries have imposed curbs on imports of French poultry - ostensibly because of the notion that infected chocken meat is harmful - Mr Thiermann remarked, "Eating chicken is not what is going to kill you."

February 28th 2006 ~ AI - can rapid RT-PCR or other tests be used?

The ProMEd moderator yesterday quoted a comment sent to ProMed by Mary Marshall:
"We also need to learn more about the risk of silent carriers: how long are they able to shed virus, and can rapid RT-PCR or other tests be used? ... With FMD 2001 in the UK, there was no attempt to collect data for future epidemiological work. I hope the same mistakes aren't being made now."
The US Defense Department has installed PCR capability for avian influenza in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In spite of its now widespread use in the detection of AI and other pathogens , we hear nothing at all from the UK politicians or establishment scientists about rapid on-site testing using RT-PCR. It will be very interesting to see what reaction greets the demonstration of rapid RT-PCR at the Manchester Conference in March. Speakers at that conference will be genuine experts in various aspects of foot and mouth disease and the parallels with avian influenza will undoubtedly be discussed.

February 28th 2006 ~ Avian Influenza: Ms Beckett said the government was "not ruling out the use of vaccination".

Margaret Beckett has told the NFU conference (Monday) that there will be no "panic vaccination" and that "anybody sensible would have reservations" about the vaccine as a blanket solution to the spread of bird flu.
( We know of no one - sensible or otherwise - who is suggesting that vaccination should be a "blanket solution" on its own, and we deplore the political technique of ascribing to opponents assertions that they have not made. However, free-range poultry keepers should be given the option of protected outdoor management, including vaccination. To deny them this - and to give reasons that are simply not scientifically sound - seems to us to be heartbreakingly foolish.)
As Magnus Linklater pointed out last week, vaccination would safeguard valuable poultry flocks, rather than killing them, slow down the spread of the epidemic, hand control to vets rather than government agencies - and "above all would stand a chance of winning the support and confidence of the countryside rather than ruining its economy, as happened last time, at an estimated cost of some #8 billion."

February 28th ~ The silent carrier argument

Once again we hear "experts" tell listeners and viewers that vaccination is "ineffective as a preventative measure" because it can "hide the presence of disease". The frustration and anger of this correspondent can be seen from the use of capital letters as the flaws in Fred Landeg's assertion that a vaccinated bird might become infected and then act as a 'silent' emitter of virus are examined. Mr Landeg omits to mention that only if a bird that has already been infected is subsequently vaccinated is it possible for it to become one of the apparently very rare persistently infected vaccinates. The same fallacious argument about vaccination and transmission was used over FMD and was effectively demolished here. Mrs Beckett talks about "panic vaccination" In fact, timely pre-emptive vaccination would have made impossible her fears of silent carriers hiding the presence of disease. (In France, 1.2 million one millilitre doses of vaccines have been ordered. Each bird receives two injections, delivered by a special vaccine gun, one month apart. Vets wear protective overalls, masks and gloves and can deliver 6,000 vaccinations a day.)

Monday February 27th 2006 ~ Avian Flu. Chief Scientist David King says there is to be no vaccination

Prof King made this announcement on the BBC on the day (Monday) that Mrs Beckett told the NFU that vaccination had not been ruled out. Germany, following the unpopular decision not to vaccinate, finds itself in a miserable position. Healthy birds across the country are being killed - with minimal publicity or public discussion - if their owners are unable to keep them inside. We hear from this correspondence sent to warmwell that one man, who has kept geese for 50 years and whose oldest one is nearly 20 years old, can find no way to save them and has been refused permission to build an enclosure. The geese are uninfected.
As Christopher Booker wrote in the Mail last week, "... it is on the judgement of these supposed 'experts'  and the decisions which follow - that the future of Britain's poultry industry, and possibly the health of many people in this country now rest. It is not a reassuring prospect. "

February 22 ~ The mindset against vaccination

has at it root the historical prejudice and ignorance of decades - and there is a vast resistance to change since it carries with it acknowledgement of past mistakes. Widespread infection in the wild bird population means - as Magnus Linklater points out - that vaccination of domestic birds, combined with biosecurity measures, is the only sensible approach. In view of the French and Dutch approach there does seem a real possibility of change.

February 22nd 2006 ~ "If Defra has time to rush around killing things, then it has time to rush around vaccinating them instead"

Magnus Linklater, as usual, points accurately to the nub of the argument in his article "A solution any birdbrain should see".
"...The Government's response to the threat of bird flu in Britain is heart-sinkingly predictable. .... ... Margaret Beckett, the Environment Secretary.. quoted, almost word for word, the mantra we heard repeated so often five years ago as the pits filled with burning carcases and the countryside was emptied of people and prospects: Everyone recognises that vaccination has problems, she said. (It) does not necessarily stop the disease in its tracks.
Of course it does not. Very few inoculation programmes do. But in the case of bird flu, most experts agree that the generic vaccines currently available would offer about 80 per cent protection, which would be of critical importance in containing the epidemic.
It would safeguard valuable poultry flocks, rather than killing them;
it would slow down the spread of the epidemic;
it would hand control to vets rather than government agencies;
above all, it would stand a chance of winning the support and confidence of the countryside rather than ruining its economy, as happened last time, at an estimated cost of some #8 billion. .....
..... Science this time is firmly on the side of vaccination. Unlike FMD, the H5N1 virus is a potentially lethal pathogen, not just for birds but for human beings...."
Read in full

February 21/22 2006 ~ CA Forum Post : H5N1 - Can we apply some of the lessons learned from FMD 2001

to other disease control contingency plans? Message from Mary Marshall to Defra and others with regard to the UK response to H5N1.
"....Failure to control FMD in 2001, especially by the delay of three days in imposing a movement standstill and the risks associated with mass slaughter and carcass disposal, should not be mirrored in our response to H5N1. In particular, while it will be relatively easy for the commercial sector to put their flocks indoors at short notice under conditions of strict biosecurity, there is no such capability to protect outdoor flocks, and measures need to be taken now.
Decision making. Control decisions in 2001 were taken by government-appointed advisers, led mainly by modelers with no veterinary expertise. There was an absence of veterinary and local input into decision making. We require assurance that this will not be repeated in the response to H5N1 in 2006 and beyond...."
This is an important post that should be read in full. Responses would be most valuable. http://www.fmd-and-csf-action.org/forums/fmdv

February 21st 2006 ~ EU veterinary experts have delayed a decision on whether to approve anti-bird flu vaccination programmes in France and the Netherlands until tomorrow.

Guardian "Members of the standing committee for the food chain and animal health spent the day discussing the implications of allowing country-specific vaccinations as part of efforts to curb the spread of the disease. France and the Netherlands had asked to be allowed to vaccinate their poultry stocks, but the move was resisted by other EU states - including Britain - on the grounds that it could mask flu symptoms and reduce the market value of the birds..."Any vaccination agreed for France or for the Netherlands would apply to those countries only," an EU official said. "The decisions will be based on the particular situations regarding poultry and the containment of bird flu in those countries. "Any other country in the EU wishing later to adopt a vaccination programme would have to submit a separate application for approval to the committee." ......
At today's vaccination talks, German, Austrian, Danish and Portuese veterinary experts led opposition to the French and Dutch bid. The UK also raised concerns, citing the fact that no vaccine to tackle the H5N1 strain directly was yet available, and that the more general vaccination held no guarantees of curing bird flu or preventing its spread. "There is no bird flu in poultry in Britain - or in poultry anywhere in the EU," a British government spokesman said. "But we are keeping vaccination under urgent review, and we remain to be convinced that it is the right solution." A European commission official confirmed there was no guarantee that vaccination would work, and said the export status of a country that vaccinated its poultry would be in doubt. ."

February 21st 2006 ~ Intervet has not received any orders from Defra for bird flu vaccine

".... for ten million doses to vaccinate Britain's free-range poultry would take up to two months to deliver." Scotsman
THE UK does not have enough bird flu vaccine to inoculate its entire poultry flock, it emerged today. In Brussels, agricultural ministers from the 25 EU countries were today continuing to discuss French and Dutch proposals for the mass vaccination of millions of ducks and chickens across Europe. This follows the spread of the deadly H5NI strain of avian flu to France and Germany. But Germany, Austria, Denmark and Poland are strongly opposed to the idea, as are British farmers, as vaccination could cost them their export market. While Britain said it had no "philosophical objection" to vaccinating poultry and other captive birds such as those in zoos, Whitehall officials admitted they didn't have enough doses of vaccine to inoculate Britain's 200 million poultry. A spokesman for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said: "A pre-emptive vaccination programme does not form part of our plan. That would only make it difficult to detect a genuine outbreak. "We already have a strategy in place which is to identify the source of any outbreak and take comprehensive measures to eradicate it." Ministers have left open the option of a smaller vaccination programme to "ring fence" any outbreak.."

February 21st 2006 ~ The Soil Association urges vaccination of all UK free range flocks

"...we are contacting people in various organisations to lend their support. It really must be sensible to protect outdoor flocks from this huge reservoir of the lethal avian flu disease around the Baltic."
The Times reports:
"...Their intervention replicates their attempt, with the support of the Prince of Wales, to persuade Tony Blair to adopt a vaccination policy during the foot-and-mouth outbreak five years ago, and it threatens to renew the strains between the organic sector and the National Farmers Union. News of the plan was leaked to The Times last night as it emerged that the Government has not ordered one vaccine to deal with an outbreak of the H5N1 virus.
While the French and Dutch today submit applications for the limited vaccination of outdoor birds to protect them from possible disease from birds returning from Africa this summer, Britain is still firmly resisting such an approach. .."

February 20th 2006 ~ Avian Influenza today ".. a combination of vaccination, culling and public communication had proved the disease could be halted,

even in a less developed country such as Vietnam. Today's Independent says, "As avian flu advances across Europe towards the UK, public health experts in the Far East claimed the first significant victory against the H5N1 virus since the current outbreak began two years ago. Vietnam, the worst affected country in the world with 93 human cases and 42 deaths, has become the first to successfully contain the disease .....Almost 200 million birds have been vaccinated, and up to five million culled.. ."

19th/20th February 2006 ~ "....farm biosecurity and appropriate flock disease prevention/vaccination needs to be implemented. The former is a national/international responsibility; the latter is local."

The latest commentary by moderator MHJ on ProMed on avian influenza is well worth reading in full.
(One does rather wonder how far real experts (such as MHJ) are now advising the UK government on what must be done to prepare for the almost inevitable. The mistakes that were made exactly five years ago - alienation, bureaucratic bullying and lack of proper information which led to a longlasting mistrust by those responsible for the livestock- must not happen again. Local responsibilty was not respected by the centralised policy. This time, human health - particularly the health of children who handle free range hens - is involved. Partnership and mutual respect has never been so urgently needed.)

19th/20th February 2006 ~ there is a risk ducks and geese could come into contact with infected birds in central Europe before heading to the UK

"...Parts of central and eastern Europe have seen one of the coldest winters for 20 years and migratory birds such as mute swans have been forced west to find food. While the swans found dead from bird flu in Austria and Germany would not pose a direct threat to Britain as they do not migrate that far, there is a risk ducks and geese could come into contact with infected birds in central Europe before heading to the UK..... " Telegraph

19th/20th February 2006 ~ "misconceptions about avian influenza that need to be challenged ....For poultry reared outdoors the only option available (other than moving poultry indoors) is vaccination..." ."

An interesting response to Viewpoint: Leon Bennun below is published on ProMed Extract
"... The arguments about whether trade or wild birds are the main source of infection are now essentially irrelevant from a disease control standpoint. Both must be recognised as genuine threats. Any control program that does not take into account the potential for both of these to spread highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses will likely fail. The only ways to reduce these risks are to strengthen border controls and farm biosecurity to prevent potentially infected or contaminated material from getting onto farms and to create barriers between poultry and wild birds. For poultry reared outdoors the only option available (other than moving poultry indoors) is vaccination..." Read in full

19th/20th February 2006 ~ Indian health officials have3 begun the slaughter of half a million birds

after detecting the first cases of deadly bird flu. See BBC.

19th/20th February 2006 ~In France, where 200,000 farms raise 900 million birds a year, all poultry has been ordered inside or vaccinated in a bid to prevent the spread from wild birds to fowl.

In spite of French and Netherlands vaccination programmes, the UK government appears to have no vaccination policy and still intends to exterminate the entire flock if any hen within it is found to be infected. There will be one-mile exclusion zones if a wild bird is found to be infected with H5N1. Inside the zone, all poultry movements would be halted, and if any poultry was found to be infected the entire flock would face being culled. See also icwales

18th February 2006 ~ Dutch vets found no bird flu in two dead swans on Friday but authorities decided to speed up poultry vaccination plans as the disease spreads in Europe.

".....Bird flu experts recommend preventive vaccination of poultry in the small and densely populated Netherlands, where the risk is seen as high because of the huge numbers of farmed birds. Bruggink said the government would present a plan to the European Commission on Monday, asking it to allow voluntary vaccination of free range chickens, most at risk of contact with wild birds...."Reuters

18th February 2006 ~ India and France each announced their first cases of bird flu on Saturday as tests confirmed birds infected with the deadly H5N1 strain

Reuters. " The French government on Saturday confirmed the country's first case of the lethal H5N1 bird flu virus, following tests on a wild duck found dead in a southeastern village. The duck was found Monday in a bird reserve some 20 miles northeast of Lyon, France's third-largest city, the Agriculture Ministry said. In India, eight people were being checked for the disease after tests on poultry in a western state showed they were infected with the deadly H5N1 strain. About 50,000 birds have died in the area in the last few days and samples sent to a government laboratory confirmed bird flu in the western Maharashtra state, local animal husbandry minister Anees Ahmed told Reuters. "

18th February 2006 ~ The Netherlands says it will seek authorisation from the European Commission to vaccinate free-range poultry against avian flu

See ProMed for today's reports "...In Brussels, the European Commission warned that poorly controlled vaccinations could allow some birds to become infected and pass on the virus. The commission has also decided that if H5N1 should be transmitted from a wild bird to a domestic fowl, there would be a mandatory slaughter and the poultry eggs destroyed on the infected farm...."

18th February 2006 ~ first case of the virus in India?

ProMed says If confirmed (by the reference laboratory), this is bad news indeed, having the panzootic, and a virus -- H5N1 -- which is devastating to the poultry industry and (so far -- limited) zoonotic features, within the territories of the world's 2 most populous countries, China and India, on top of vast territories in 3 continents.

18th February 2006 ~ "Vested interests mean wild birds are being blamed for the spread of avian flu

argues Dr Leon Bennun in this week's Green Room, whereas responsibility really lies with modern farming. Demands for culling and the destruction of nesting sites threaten, he says, to bring rare species to extinction, but will do nothing to halt the disease. ...If wild birds had been spreading the disease across continents there would have been trails of outbreaks following migration routes; but this hasn't happened. The "wild bird" theory for the spread of H5N1 also provides no explanation as to why certain countries on flight paths of birds from Asia remain flu-free, whilst their neighbours suffer repeated infections. .......
Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses are very rare in wild birds. But in intensively farmed poultry, the high density of birds and constant exposure to faeces, saliva and other secretions provide ideal conditions for the replication, mutation, recombination and selection through which highly lethal forms can evolve. Add to this repeated misdiagnosis, industry and government cover-ups, and panic selling or processing of potentially infected birds, and we have the explanation for why H5N1 is now endemic in parts of South-East Asia. ....
The view that poultry movements have played a major role in the spread of the disease is supported by an analysis of viral strains recently published in the US journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Some of the agencies attempting to monitor and control avian flu, such as the FAO, seem to have been reluctant to draw attention to the role of intensive agriculture, because of the impact on national economies and on access to cheap sources of protein. ...
.H5N1 outbreaks in wild birds have so far mostly burned themselves out without culls or other human interventions....." BBC

17th February 2006 ~ "The French authorities have already applied emergency containment measures set out at EU level

as an obligation on all countries hit by bird flu outbreaks. These involve establishing a three-kilometre protection zone around the area where the duck was found and creating a surrounding "surveillance zone" an extra seven kilometres deep.
"In the protection zone, poultry must be kept indoors, movement of poultry is banned except directly to the slaughterhouse and the dispatch of meat outside the zone is forbidden except where products have undergone controls provided for in EU food controls legislation" the European Commission said in a statement.
In Europe, the presence of H5N1 virus has so far been verified in Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Germany, Greece, Italy, Romania, Slovenia, Ukraine and the European part of Russia. Almost all the cases involve migratory wild swans. ..." Times

17th February 2006 ~ Ben Bradshaw said.... "Currently available vaccines do not make vaccination effective or efficient as a disease control or prevention measure for avian influenza

in the UK as, although vaccines are able to reduce mortality, it is likely that some vaccinated birds would still be capable of transmitting the disease if they became infected. However, as part of our readiness for a disease outbreak, and being conscious that there was no authorised vaccine available for AI, the Veterinary Medicines Directorate has recently issued a Provisional Marketing Authorisation for the Nobilis vaccine, produced by Intervet. ..." Read PQs from Feb 13th in full

17th February 2006 ~ The spread of H5N1 by wild birds "is a horrible assumption that a lot of people are making,"

See http://www.washingtonpost.com- "Poultry, Not Wild Birds, Most Often Carries Deadly Avian Flu to Africa" By David Brown
...... Peter Marra, an ecologist with the Smithsonian Institution's Migratory Bird Center at the National Zoo.
"There is no question that migratory birds are playing a role, but they are not the main players." Marra said more attention should be given to the legal -- and illegal -- movement of poultry and pet-trade birds because "that is where you can actually do something about it."

9th February 2006 ~ Nigeria "It remains unclear if the outbreak has been triggered by migratory birds or by the trade and movement of poultry or poultry products,"

said Joseph Domenech, FAO Chief Veterinary Officer. ....... FAO urged veterinary services in Nigeria to eliminate the outbreaks through immediate humane culling and to strictly control the movement of people and animals from and to bird flu infected spots. FAO will also send 2 local experts to the affected region to advise local authorities on control measures.
Transparency, rapid interventions and close collaboration with the international community are crucial to stop the spread of the virus, FAO said. "We are aware that veterinary services in Nigeria are in need of international support. The animal health infrastructure in the country is facing a big challenge and will require outside assistance," Domenech said. Laboratory materials for diagnosis and protective equipment for veterinarians undertaking investigation are urgently required...." (FAO News Release quoted by ProMed)

9th February 2006 ~ "EU governments may soon be able to request funding to vaccinate their poultry against bird flu

in areas considered high risk, as a short-term measure to stop the disease spreading, officials said on Thursday. Until now, vaccination has been allowed only in limited circumstances and the European Commission, which monitors national programmes to keep dangerous strains of bird flu out of Europe, has shied away from generalised preventive vaccination. But with the lethal H5N1 virus creeping closer -- the latest case came this month in northern Cyprus -- that may change, especially as the spring migratory season approaches. .." Reuters

8th February 2006 ~ ProMed comment on the Nigeria situation

[There appears to be laboratory confirmation that this is H5N1.  The
OIE has received virtually no reports of Highly Pathogenic Avian
Influenza from West Africa previously.  Key countries with active
veterinary services such as Nigeria, Cameroon and Ghana have not
reported HPAI for the last ten years.  Of course, low path Avian
Influenza has been recognized in Nigeria for decades - I remember
seeing clinical examples in the late 1970s.

Unfortunately, a glance at the world migratory birds routes places
the above report in a worrisome context - please see
http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/subjects/en/health/diseases-cards/migrationmap.html.

Nigeria and the Cameroon are located right at the intersection of the
Black Sea/Mediterrean flyways and the East Atlantic Flyways.  While
the outbreak location of Kaduna appears to be north of the migratory
bird flyway intersection, it is just marginally north, albeit located
in a more Sahelian ecological zone.

We need information on the extent and source of the outbreak in
Nigeria and other parts of West Africa.  We will make contact there
at key institution (Veterinary College at ABU and Ibadan, Vom
National Research Institute) to try and obtain updated information.
We also need more than a cursory analysis of migratory bird pathways
and the potential for Europe and the Americas to be affected.
Surveillance for human infections in Nigeria should be ramped up at
this point as well. - Mod.PC] ProMed

8th February 2006 ~ WHO reports H5N1 in Africa.

"The confirmation of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in domestic birds in northern Nigeria marks the further geographical spread of this virus. Although all evidence to date indicates that the virus does not spread easily from birds to humans, careful monitoring of the situation is warranted.
Experience in several other countries has shown how quickly the H5N1 virus can spread and become firmly established in poultry. The ability of this virus to cause rare but severe disease in humans is well documented.
At present, the only confirmed H5N1 outbreak is thought to be confined to a large commercial farm, located in Kaduna State in the northern part of the country, where thousands of chickens were kept in battery cages. Investigations are urgently needed to determine whether the outbreak, which began almost a month ago, has spread from the farm to affect household flocks. Poultry deaths in the adjacent province of Kano have been reported, but the cause has not yet been determined.
The most immediate public health need is to reduce opportunities for human infections to occur. Investigations of human cases in Asia and elsewhere have identified close contact with diseased or dead household poultry as the most important source of human exposure to the virus.
In Nigeria, as in other parts of Africa, most village households maintain free-ranging flocks of poultry as a source of income and food. Close human contact with poultry is extensive.
If the virus has spread to household flocks in Nigeria, public information campaigns will be needed to warn populations to avoid high-risk behaviours, including the slaughtering, defeathering, butchering, and preparation for consumption of diseased poultry.
WHO is ready to respond to requests from Nigeria for support, including assessment teams and the provision of essential supplies and equipment. Infectious disease staff at WHOs regional office in Harare, Zimbabwe held an emergency meeting today to assess the situation, plan a response, and evaluate the possible risk to other African countries. A team of experts experienced in the investigation of outbreaks has been placed on standby.
No clear information about the source of the Nigerian outbreak is presently available, but the country is known to lie along a flight route for birds migrating from central Asia.
Full sequence information about the virus in the Nigerian outbreak is expected later this week. This information will allow comparison with viruses that have caused human cases elsewhere and thus assist in the assessment of risks to human health. Sequence information may also shed some light on the origins of the outbreak." World Health Organization (WHO) website (new window)

7th February 2006 ~ ProMed comment on latest cases in Iraq

[According to this AFP report, 3 of the suspected human cases of H5N1 avian influenza in the Kurdistan region of Iraq are now confirmed cases (2 of whom have died), 4 others are still under observation, and 5 have been discharged from hospital. The death of a man in southern Iraq is likely to be the 4th confirmed case, as he possessed two H5N1-infected pigeons. - Mod.CP]

6th February 2006 ~ Britain to spend #2 million on artificially infecting chickens

The Mirror reports on a BSL4 laboratory to be built for the VLA. EXCLUSIVE: UK'S #2M BIRD FLU LAB EXCLUSIVE Thousands of chickens will be infected in hunt for cure " #2MILLION high-security testing centre is being built as the latest weapon in the war on bird flu. "Millions of pounds is being spent on upgrading the building. It is basically a warehouse that housed over 1,000 guinea pigs but they are all being moved out to make way for chickens. "There are also lots of structural changes that have to be made so that it comes up to safety requirements." The Department of Environment said they were doubling the amount of research into bird flu. A spokesman said: "We are carrying out a refurbishment to extend our capacity to carry out research into avian influenza. "It is part of our commitment to monitoring the disease. We are doubling our capacity into research for the whole of Europe." ..."

6th February 2006 ~ Bird flu in Iraq - control efforts are hampered by violence and poor infrastructure

Reuters reports that a WHO team has arrived and quotes an Iraqi actor: "We are afraid the problem is huge. We have a weak government which cannot face crises much less dangerous than bird flu."
..... a WHO laboratory in London is testing samples to see if bird flu killed him. Tests are also being carried out on samples from a 54-year-old woman with respiratory problems who is being treated in northern Iraq. There are five other people whose clinical condition gives grounds for suspecting that they could have the disease, although they have not been seen by the WHO team on the ground in northern Iraq, WHO spokesman Dick Thompson said....WHO country representative Naeema al-Gasseer told a media briefing in Arbil, the capital of Iraq's largely autonomous Kurdistan region, that local health officials were confident the virus had not spread from the dead girl's village, Serkikan...."

4th February 2006 ~"If we send the samples on Monday or Tuesday to the EU-registered laboratory in England, we will have the results by the end of the week,"

Bulgaria found its first case of H5 bird flu in a dead swan on its border with Romania on Friday, and samples are being "sent to Britain to test whether it is a strain that can kill people." See ProMed for latest general report from the FAO

3rd February 2006 ~ The German government has ordered farmers to keep their poultry indoors

beginning 1 Mar 2006 to help counter the threat of avian influenza, the Agriculture and Consumer Protection Minister Horst Seehofer told reporters at a news conference in Berlin today. ``We will not allow any gaps to appear'' in protecting poultry from the disease. See Bloomberg.
ProMed comments:
Similar measures might be expected in other European countries. In the Netherlands, where regulations prescribing indoor keeping of poultry prevailed since autumn 2005, the requirement has been withdrawn since 1 Jan 2006 "in view of the termination of the wild-bird migration period and the results of EU survey in wild birds". Its renewal will be considered in view of the evolving situation."
Around 25 000 wild birds have been tested for avian influenza in the EU since [October 2005]. All samples sofar have tested negative for the Asian strain of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus. .

2nd February 2006 ~ "a feasible vaccine strategy against existing and newly emerging viruses of highly pathogenic avian influenza to prepare against a pandemic.."

Alertnet on the new H5N1 vaccine from Texas
"Scientists have produced a vaccine against deadly H5N1 strains of bird flu that has protected mice, using a genetic engineering technique that can be easily scaled up for stockpiling to prepare for a pandemic. Dr Suryaprakash Sambhara, of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia, said it can be made much more quickly than conventional vaccines and enough doses could be produced to protect people at risk. It is also effective against newer strains of flu and does not need an adjuvant, or additive, to boost the immune system response..."

1st February 2006 ~ Hong Kong kills birds in 3 mile radius folling discovery of illegal import

Alertnet ".. The Hong Kong government said on Wednesday [1 Feb 2006] that 2 dead birds -- a wild crested myna and a domestic chicken smuggled in from mainland China -- had tested positive .... The chicken and myna double the number of dead birds that Hong Kong government tests in the past 2 weeks have shown to have H5N1 .... As a precaution, the government will cull all poultry within 5 km (3.1 miles) of the small holding where the chicken died and also close the city's walk-in aviaries and a large nature reserve..."

January 31st 2006 ~ EU confirms the H5N1 strain of avian flu in a sample taken from poultry in northern Cyprus.

Reuters "Turkish Cypriot authorities said on Monday [30 Jan 2006] they were worried an outbreak of avian flu among poultry could hit badly needed tourism revenues and said they were stepping up efforts to prevent the virus spreading."

January 31st 2006 ~ A 15-year-old girl has died of the bird flu in Iraq

The New York Times reports that it is a
" finding that indicates that the virus has arrived in yet another country -- one whose ability to control contagion is likely to be hampered by war."

January 28th 2006 ~ The key will be the quick submission of samples to the testing laboratory and "immediate assessment" of samples

USinfostate.gov article: U.S. Finalizing Wild Bird Surveillance Program Officials say they will also increase testing of commercial poultry for viruses. "......The U.S. federal government is coordinating its efforts with Alaska, other states and Canada, over which wild -- or migratory birds -- from Asia and Russia fly during spring season to their final destinations in Central and South America, said Ron DeHaven, administrator of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service...."

January 27th 2006 ~ "people have overwhelmingly caught the virus from their backyard chickens, not from passing wild ducks."

The Brussels correspondent of the New Scientist quotes magazine, issue 2536, 28 Jan 2006,page 9
"......no one has yet found a smoking gun: healthy migrant birds carrying H5N1. But we do know that H5N1 can be carried and spread by healthy domestic ducks, and therefore probably by wild ducks -- experiments are under way to find out. Moreover there is circumstantial evidence that the outbreaks are consistent with migration pathways......
Juan Lubroth of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome "What can we do about the wild birds? Nothing," says Lubroth -- shooting them just scatters them, and anything they may be carrying. "What can we do about poultry? A lot."
See ProMed entry

January 27th 2006 ~ "Determination of the complete sequences of the genomes of 169 influenza A viruses, including representatives of all known subtypes, is a very significant achievement"

says a ProMed moderator today, adding that the the work at the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis is "providing a new database for analysis of the biological properties of influenza A viruses. The systematic distinctiveness of avian and mammalian influenza A viruses revealed by these data suggests that the reassortment of genome subunits to produce a novel human pandemic virus is likely to be a rarer event than generally assumed. " See ProMed entry and news coverage of the genomic sequencing.

January 26th 2006 ~ Bird flu vaccinations in Vietnam show promising early results

Meatingplace.com reports that most poultry vaccinated against bird flu in Vietnam are developing at least some immunity to the H5N1 virus. The two-shot mass vaccination campaign of more than 120 million birds began last August. About a month after it ended, some 7,600 blood specimens were taken randomly throughout the country. Initial test results showed about 86 percent of ducks sampled had developed some level of immunity, compared to about 83 percent of chickens tested. There will likely be a clearer picture of the vaccine's overall effectiveness after 42,000 more random samples are tested this year. Vietnam has not detected any new bird flu outbreaks in poultry in more than a month, and no human cases have been reported since November. The country is importing another 150 million doses of the vaccine for a new vaccination campaign expected to start in February.

January 26th 2006 ~ "wild birds may introduce the virus, but it is through man and man's marketing systems (the poultry trade) that the disease spreads. ."

Juan Lubroth, the senior officer for infectious diseases with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has been quoted by Reuters
"We do know that avian influenza viruses are carried by migratory birds all over the world. But not all of them are highly pathogenic or H5N1. I think that wild birds may introduce the virus, but it is through man and man's marketing systems (the poultry trade) that the disease spreads. It is also possible that poultry can transmit the virus to wildlife when they share the same ecosystem."
This, in turn, is quoted in ProMed's update on avian influenza. The moderator adds, "Though the sequencing data from the Russian labs -- regarding isolates from wild birds (see 20060120.0191) -- are persuasive, it is still far from proven that bird migration is a significant factor in the spread of H5N1 virus infection of domestic poultry. The sequence data lack a temporal scale, which would confirm the direction of movement of the infection. Wider surveillance is necessary, including samples taken from birds at different times and from sites at intermediate points on migration routes and also outside the current range of HPAI H5N1. - Mod.CP]

January 26th 2006 ~ "Role of Migratory Birds"

The ProMed item quoted above makes useful reference to the chapter "Role of Migratory Birds" in the recent overview "H5N1 Outbreaks and Enzootic Influenza" by Robert G. Webster, Malik Peiris, Honglin Chen and Yi Guan may be helpful in further elucidating the issue.
(From: Emerging Infectious Diseases, 12 [1], Jan 2006, http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-1024.htm )
"...... The role of migratory birds in the transmission and spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses is still unclear. However, the recent outbreak of H5N1 infection in bar-headed geese and other species in Qinghai Lake is a cause for concern, because these birds migrate southward to the Indian subcontinent, an area that has apparently not been affected by H5N1 avian influenza. If the virus were to become entrenched in India, its geographic range would be substantially extended, and the pandemic threat would increase accordingly. ....." Read in full

January 26th 2006 ~ culling migratory birds must be strongly discouraged, for it could have unknown ecological consequences.

From "Role of Migratory Birds" in the recent overview "H5N1 Outbreaks and Enzootic Influenza" by Robert G. Webster, Malik Peiris, Honglin Chen and Yi Guan (see above)
"....Although culling domestic poultry to contain the spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 virus is considered an acceptable agricultural practice, culling migratory birds is not acceptable to any international authority (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO], the World Organisation for Animal Health [OIE], the World Health Organization [WHO]).
The idea of culling migratory birds must be strongly discouraged, for it could have unknown ecological consequences. Instead, since highly pathogenic H5N1 has been demonstrated in migratory birds, the poultry industries of the world must adapt measures, such as increased biosecurity, the use of vaccines, or both." Read in full

January 26th 2006 ~ "either the Turkish authorities are over-estimating the number of human avian influenza cases, or the number of cases of infection in East Asia is being under-estimated."

Commenting on the optimism of the Turkish authorities, the ProMed moderator says that the discrepancy between Turkish Health Ministry figures and those of the WHO needs to be resolved. (WHO reports only laboratory-confirmed cases.)

January 24th 2006 ~ 23 days for samples to be tested for avian influenza

Replying to a question from Jim Paice;
"pursuant to her answer of 16 January 2006, Official Report, column 892W, on Avian influenza, on what date the testing of the 3,179 wild birds for avian influenza commenced; and on what dates the mallard and shelduck were (a) found or captured and (b) tested."
Ben Bradshaw replied "Samples from the mallard were taken on 14 November 2005 and first tested on 25 November 2005. Samples from the shelduck were also taken on 14 November 2005 and first tested on 6 December 2005. Hansard

January 25th 2006 ~ The latest Fact sheet from WHO

".....vaccination of poultry in a high-risk area can be used as a supplementary emergency measure, provided quality-assured vaccines are used and OIE recommendations are strictly followed. ..... The frequent absence of compensation to farmers for destroyed birds further works against the spontaneous reporting of outbreaks and may encourage owners to hide their birds during culling operations. ...." WHO website

23rd January 2006 ~ "the vital importance of surveillance and effective early warning systems"

Reuters reports that the WHO says today that it is not exaggerating the risk of a human influenza pandemic and is calling for improved surveillance of birds globally to ensure early detection of the H5n1 virus. WHO experts will help nearby countries deemed "at risk" to assess the situation. These include Syria, Iran, Iraq, as well as Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Read in full

20th January 2006 ~ Germany is poised to follow the Dutch and French examples

and require free-range poultry producers to keep their birds indoors to prevent exposure to avian flu. See FWi

18th January 2006 ~ WHO report

Avian influenza  situation in Turkey  update 6 "....a second shipment of laboratory specimens arrived yesterday at a WHO collaborating laboratory in the United Kingdom. Apart from providing diagnostic confirmation, the laboratory will undertake viral characterization and genetic and antigenic analyses of viruses. These studies help determine whether the virus is evolving. Antigenic analysis of the virus helps ensure that work on the development of a pandemic vaccine stays on track. Initial results are expected later this week."

18th January 2006 ~ Although the WHO does not know the total number of young people infected with H5N1 worldwide, most of the cases in Turkey involved children and teenagers between the ages of four and 18.

An 11-year-old girl who died in Turkey today after suffering from pneumonia is suspected to be the fifth child in the country to be killed by the H5N1 bird flu virus in just two weeks Guardian ..... The WHO has stressed it has no evidence of person-to-person infection in Turkey. Donors at a bird flu conference in Beijing today pledged more than $1.9bn (#1.08bn) to combat the virus and prepare for a possible human flu pandemic."

15/16th January 2006 ~ "Only free range birds are to be destroyed, as factory reared chickens are under control "

West Azarbaijan province's Veterinary Organization is saying that 32 villages will lose all their backyard poultry. The words of the head of the organisation are ominous. See ProMed - a moderator says of the UK
"Out of 1102 live caught birds in various parts of the UK, not a single one was found positive, while out of 279 freshly shot birds, one bird was found infected. This isolate, reported on 7 Dec 2005, related to a Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (LPAI) virus (subtype H6N2) strain. The sample was taken from a wild mallard duck that was shot in West Lothian, Scotland. Similar surveillance activities are operational in other European countries, North America and elsewhere."

15/16th January 2006 ~ The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed an additional case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus.

The case occurred in a 29-year-old woman who worked as a midwife at the maternity ward in a Jakarta hospital. She developed symptoms on 31 December, was hospitalized on 2 January, and died on 11 January. Investigations conducted by the Ministry of Health and WHO found evidence of poultry deaths in her neighbourhood in the two weeks prior to onset of illness. Other findings indicate that the patient visited a live-bird market to select and purchase freshly slaughtered chicken in the days immediately prior to symptom onset. Investigations at these sites are continuing. The possibility that the patient acquired her infection from an occupational exposure is considered unlikely...." WHO

January 15/16 2006 ~" Whether the virus is introduced by wild birds or poultry is irrelevant to my proposal...."

Dr Watkins has written a follow-up letter :
"....My suggestion is to restock with vaccinated domestic birds once the village or area has been completely culled to control the outbreak of H5N1 in domestic poultry in that village or area. It is possible there may be H5N1 infection in some of the local wild birds or that infected wild birds or even infected poultry are reintroduced to that village or area. However the vaccinated domestic birds would be protected from infection so there would be no outbreak in the domestic flock. The few infected individuals would die.....
It would be important to maintain vaccination, for example an annual vaccination of all adult and all young domestic birds in the summer if the vaccine gives protection for 12 months. Unfortunately, the apparent local elimination of H5N! from infected domestic poultry by culling all poultry is not enough to ensure the infection will not re-emerge...
...Whether the virus is introduced by wild birds or poultry is irrelevant to my proposal. It is likely that in an outbreak the virus circulates between wild birds and domestic birds, even felines and pigs may be infected too. The most important measure other than controlling new outbreaks is to prevent their reoccurrence thus reducing the opportuniteis for the virus to infect humans and mutate or reassort to produce a pandemic strain for humans.
It would seem that Turkey's exit strategy could be to eliminate the keeping of domestic poultry altogether- I have seen this on the latest ProMed bulletin. This may be very unfortunate for the nutrition and health of its poorer population who - if they ever get the meagre monetary compensation proposed - may be hard pushed to find it would cover another long term source of nutrition as valuable as poultry. ...."
Read in full

January 15 2006 ~ isnt the best test of a plan one that has to be implemented at short notice?

Jim Paice says that the Government is behind schedule on bird flu contingency plans. He has written to Margaret Beckett expressing his astonishment that a Government exercise, Exercise Hawthorn, to review current contingency plans for a national outbreak of avian flu is not taking place until after the spring migration, thought to be the most risky time of year for the disease to spread to the UK.
Given the implications of a national outbreak it is imperative that the Governments contingency plans are reviewed now so that the current state of readiness can be assessed and improved before the threat increases. It seems complacent in the extreme to delay this exercise until April, by which time it might be too late.
In his letter to Environment Secretary Margaret Beckett, Jim Paice asks Surely it would be better to discover now which aspects of the UKs contingency plans need updating and improving rather than in three months time? Isnt the best test of a plan one that has to be implemented at short notice?
The full text of Jim Paices letter to Margaret Beckett

January 15/16 2006 ~ "Bird flu: Death in the air It really could kill millions..." is the sensationali