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April 15th 2010 ~ "For now, to simply agree that the post-peak future needs a plan is an achievement."
That the American military is well aware of the imminent end of cheap oil is evident in this year's Joint Operating Environment report. It warns of major oil shortages:
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD."(page 31) (The sections on food, agriculture and water also make for uncomfortable reading.)The publicly upbeat stance of the International Energy Agency (IEA) is that there is no short-term risk, but the the Guardian says:
"...privately some senior officials have admitted there is considerable disagreement internally about this..."Unless there is adequate preparation for the end of cheap oil the social consequences are likely to be grave. While the political manifestos have a distinctly 'lifeboat rearranging' feel to them, the high security equipment and trained personnel of new, private, very quiet and very lucrative UK security "industries" such SERCO and G4S seem to be confidently preparing for the suppression of social unrest. (Dr John Reid, still an MP, has been taking £50,000 a year from G4S.)
At the other end of the ethical scale is the "Transition Towns" movement, led and inspired by Rob Hopkins. Groups of people are preparing for an enthusiastic local resilience; self-sufficient food production, alternative transport systems and stewardship of the land. After Lord Hunt's 'behind locked doors' meeting mentioned below Rob Hopkins said, "For now, to simply agree that the post-peak future needs a plan is an achievement."
(Warmwell's updating peak oil page began in 2004)